TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13129162
Played Sep 14Finished
Pavel Cibik
Home
1.67
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
611711611––––
Simon Matousch
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:12 and never touched — 58.6% is still 58.6%
Graded at full timePavel Cibik to win
58.6%
58.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPavel Cibik above · Simon Matousch below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 52 set 3, 6-11 — our read held Pavel Cibik at 58.6%
52 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Cibik 26–27 Simon Matousch Pavel Cibik has won 26 of their 53 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 12:12What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Cibik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
26-27 in 53
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cibik 1479 vs Matousch 1348
Cibik
Wrong
both rated, 131 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cibik 60% vs Matousch 40%
Cibik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cibik 70% vs Matousch 30%
Cibik
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Cibik -2 · Matousch +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Cibik)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCibik 1.67 / Matousch 2.10
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Cibik)+2.8pp
TT Cup · #13129162
Cibik1.67
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite63% won 68 of 108
Up 2–0, closes it91% 29 of 32
Up 1–0, closes it75% 49 of 65
Matousch2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog28% won 18 of 64
Down 0–1, comes back11% 4 of 37
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 21
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCibik6wins
AwayMatousch4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderCibik leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCibik100%4 of 4
AwayMatousch66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cibik4Matousch6n = 10Matousch took 6 of 10
S2Cibik5Matousch5n = 10split evenly
S3Cibik6Matousch4n = 10Cibik took 6 of 10
S4Cibik6Matousch2n = 8Cibik took 6 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricCibikMatouschC − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match37.836.1+1.7per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCibikMatouschBasisWin rate · lifetime314 / 681 vs 161 / 34146.1%47.2%314 / 681 vs 161 / 341Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.237.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CibikCibik 1.67/Matousch 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.6%
Cibik · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Matousch won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 9 · 14:20P. Cibik51119911113S. Matousch4271111942
WSep 3 · 12:20P. Cibik4181111113S. Matousch30119371
WSep 1 · 10:20P. Cibik3851111113S. Matousch35118791
WAug 4 · 16:20P. Cibik4112711113S. Matousch381011981
WJul 24 · 13:50P. Cibik331111113S. Matousch279990
LJul 24 · 12:50P. Cibik207760S. Matousch331111113
LJul 21 · 17:24P. Cibik346101171S. Matousch4011126113
WJul 21 · 14:20P. Cibik4111811113S. Matousch30611851
LJul 9 · 17:25P. Cibik26511551S. Matousch3511211113
LJul 9 · 14:20P. Cibik539111111112S. Matousch51118136133
P. Cibik10
LSep 14 · 19:20P. Cibik2.00911691Z. Vyskocil1.7311411113LSep 14 · 18:20P. Cibik1.83111191192L. Vich1.83471113113WSep 13 · 13:55P. Cibik1.6161113113R. Zeman2.201191171WSep 13 · 12:50Z. Dusek1.837111091P. Cibik1.8311812113WSep 13 · 11:50P. Cibik1.531111123R. Zeman2.3857100WSep 13 · 10:20M. Nemec2.2511126101P. Cibik1.5741411123WSep 12 · 18:29O. Hula1.67119891P. Cibik2.1061111113LSep 12 · 17:25O. Hula2.10111213113P. Cibik1.6713101121WSep 12 · 16:25P. Cibik1.5011111112123M. Kolbusovsky2.50136114102WSep 12 · 14:55R. Zeman2.3859111152P. Cibik1.53111188113
S. Matousch10
WSep 14 · 19:50L. Vich1.618570S. Matousch2.201111113WSep 14 · 18:50S. Matousch1.7311713113Z. Vyskocil2.005111191LSep 9 · 17:20M. Cesak1.571411133S. Matousch2.25128110LSep 9 · 16:20S. Matousch2.7578100M. Cesak1.401111123LSep 9 · 15:20S. Matousch1.8082131142Z. Dusek1.911111119113LSep 9 · 14:20S. Matousch1.9171111942P. Cibik1.80119911113LSep 3 · 14:04T. Jr1.171111113S. Matousch4.503530LSep 3 · 12:20S. Matousch1.57119371P. Cibik2.2581111113WSep 3 · 11:20S. Matousch2.251112123J. Vintr1.57410100LSep 3 · 10:20S. Matousch2.6381111552T. Jr1.44118411113
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