TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 21Finished
Simon Matousch
Home
3.00
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 5
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
10127111012––––
Tomas Cerveny Jr
Away
1.36
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:05 and never touched — 72.4% is still 72.4%
Graded at full timeTomas Cerveny Jr to win
72.4%
72.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSimon Matousch above · Tomas Cerveny Jr below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Point 62 set 3, 10-12 — our read held Tomas Cerveny Jr at 72.4%
62 points played in total.
H2H Simon Matousch 13–22 Tomas Cerveny Jr Simon Matousch has won 13 of their 35 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:05What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Jr
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-22 in 35
Jr
Correct
gap of 9 in 35, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Matousch 1359 vs Jr 1538
Jr
Correct
both rated, 179 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Matousch 0% vs Jr 80%
Jr
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Matousch 30% vs Jr 60%
Jr
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Matousch -5 · Jr -1
Matousch
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% — Strong (leans Jr)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Matousch form (0%) is below what odds imply (33%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMatousch 3.00 / Jr 1.36
Signal prob.28% / 72%
Edge (Jr)+3.6pp
TT Cup · #13166581
Matousch3.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 5 days ago (Sep 16)
Lost last 5
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog27% won 18 of 67
Down 0–1, comes back11% 4 of 38
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 22
Jr1.36
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite63% won 69 of 109
Up 2–0, closes it94% 31 of 33
Up 1–0, closes it82% 54 of 66
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMatousch1wins
AwayJr9wins
3 of 10 to a deciderJr leads 9–1, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMatousch25%1 of 4
AwayJr100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Matousch4Jr6n = 10Jr took 6 of 10
S2Matousch2Jr8n = 10Jr took 8 of 10
S3Matousch2Jr8n = 10Jr took 8 of 10
S4Matousch1Jr5n = 6Jr took 5 of 6
S5Matousch1Jr2n = 3Jr took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricMatouschJrM − JBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match32.340.5−8.2per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMatouschJrBasisWin rate · lifetime162 / 343 vs 335 / 60947.2%55%162 / 343 vs 335 / 609Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.237.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JrMatousch 3.00/Jr 1.36
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
72.4%
Jr · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Jr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 3 · 14:04S. Matousch113530T. Jr331111113
LSep 3 · 10:20S. Matousch4081111552T. Jr45118411113
WAug 25 · 11:20S. Matousch571211149113T. Jr49106161162
LMay 28 · 06:55S. Matousch391198111T. Jr4271111133
LFeb 24 · 08:55S. Matousch1945100T. Jr341111123
LFeb 20 · 13:20S. Matousch2510780T. Jr341211113
LFeb 17 · 09:50S. Matousch41115311112T. Jr49811116133
LFeb 4 · 14:25S. Matousch4011118101T. Jr4591311123
LDec 9 · 13:20S. Matousch248880T. Jr331111113
LDec 5 · 11:20S. Matousch27561151T. Jr4111118113
S. Matousch10
WSep 21 · 11:20S. Matousch1.91612127113J. Vintr1.801110101172LSep 16 · 21:23P. Cibik1.7211111113S. Matousch2.00851171LSep 16 · 20:20S. Matousch1.8310111081P. Cibik1.8312512113LSep 16 · 19:20S. Matousch1.6711911882Z. Vyskocil2.10611611113LSep 16 · 18:20S. Matousch2.7513137462T. Barsa1.4011111111113LSep 14 · 22:00S. Matousch1.9013871182L. Vich1.801111117113WSep 14 · 20:20P. Cibik1.676760S. Matousch2.101111113WSep 14 · 19:50L. Vich1.618570S. Matousch2.201111113WSep 14 · 18:50S. Matousch1.7311713113Z. Vyskocil2.005111191LSep 9 · 17:20M. Cesak1.571411133S. Matousch2.25128110
T. Jr10
LSep 20 · 21:55T. Jr1.271110771P. Cibik3.3081211113WSep 20 · 20:50T. Jr1.73117118113Z. Vyskocil2.0091141142WSep 20 · 19:20L. Vich1.807760T. Jr1.911111113WSep 20 · 18:50P. Cibik3.401196101T. Jr1.3081111123WSep 18 · 13:25T. Jr1.8013117113P. Kubat1.911191141LSep 18 · 12:50T. Jr3.0061161132L. Rek1.36115110113WSep 18 · 11:20P. Kubat1.61681361T. Jr2.20111111113LSep 18 · 10:50A. Jr1.73121511113T. Jr2.001017671WSep 15 · 17:20A. Jr1.801378101T. Jr1.91111111123LSep 15 · 16:20T. Jr2.00119111122D. Zelezny1.73611913113
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