TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Tomas Cerveny Jr
Home
1.27
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1181012711711––
Pavel Cibik
Away
3.30
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:25 and never touched — 76.5% is still 76.5%
Graded at full timeTomas Cerveny Jr to win
76.5%
76.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingTomas Cerveny Jr above · Pavel Cibik below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 77 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Tomas Cerveny Jr at 76.5%
77 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Cerveny Jr 31–7 Pavel Cibik Pavel Cibik has won 7 of their 38 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Jr beat Cibik 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:25What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.27 (72%)
Jr
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
31-7 in 38
Jr
Wrong
gap of 24 in 38, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jr 1572 vs Cibik 1522
Jr
Wrong
both rated, 50 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jr 80% vs Cibik 60%
Jr
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jr 60% vs Cibik 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jr +4 · Cibik +2
Jr
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 77% — Strong (leans Jr)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cibik form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (30%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJr 1.27 / Cibik 3.30
Signal prob.77% / 24%
Edge (Jr)+4.3pp
TT Cup · #13166690
Jr1.27
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite63% won 67 of 106
Up 2–0, closes it94% 31 of 33
Up 1–0, closes it83% 53 of 64
Cibik3.30
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog44% won 64 of 146
Down 0–1, comes back26% 21 of 82
Down 0–2, comes back11% 4 of 38
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJr10wins
AwayCibik0wins
2 of 10 to a deciderJr leads 10–0, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJr100%7 of 7
AwayCibik0%0 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jr7Cibik3n = 10Jr took 7 of 10
S2Jr8Cibik2n = 10Jr took 8 of 10
S3Jr8Cibik2n = 10Jr took 8 of 10
S4Jr5Cibik1n = 6Jr took 5 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricJrCibikJ − CBasisWins100+10in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match42.032.0+10.0per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJrCibikBasisWin rate · lifetime335 / 608 vs 314 / 68055.1%46.2%335 / 608 vs 314 / 680Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.038.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JrJr 1.27/Cibik 3.30
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
76.5%
Jr · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Cibik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 20 · 18:50T. Jr4281111123P. Cibik361196101
WSep 3 · 11:50T. Jr48121411113P. Cibik421016881
WAug 30 · 19:20T. Jr43111011113P. Cibik32712671
WMay 28 · 08:25T. Jr341111123P. Cibik2688100
WMay 1 · 16:20T. Jr44111111113P. Cibik29281361
WApr 28 · 12:20T. Jr341111123P. Cibik2569100
WApr 21 · 16:50T. Jr541013911113P. Cibik44121111372
WApr 7 · 11:20T. Jr371511113P. Cibik2513840
WMar 6 · 23:05T. Jr331111113P. Cibik178450
WMar 6 · 19:20T. Jr51911119113P. Cibik4411961172
T. Jr10
WSep 20 · 20:50T. Jr1.73117118113Z. Vyskocil2.0091141142WSep 20 · 19:20L. Vich1.807760T. Jr1.911111113WSep 20 · 18:50P. Cibik3.401196101T. Jr1.3081111123WSep 18 · 13:25T. Jr1.8013117113P. Kubat1.911191141LSep 18 · 12:50T. Jr3.0061161132L. Rek1.36115110113WSep 18 · 11:20P. Kubat1.61681361T. Jr2.20111111113LSep 18 · 10:50A. Jr1.73121511113T. Jr2.001017671WSep 15 · 17:20A. Jr1.801378101T. Jr1.91111111123LSep 15 · 16:20T. Jr2.00119111122D. Zelezny1.73611913113LSep 15 · 15:20T. Jr2.00101112962A. Jr1.731291011113
P. Cibik10
WSep 20 · 20:20L. Vich2.5091111882P. Cibik1.50118611113WSep 20 · 19:50Z. Vyskocil1.67991151P. Cibik2.1011118113LSep 20 · 18:50P. Cibik3.401196101T. Jr1.3081111123LSep 18 · 17:54R. Zeman2.20119311113P. Cibik1.6191111792WSep 18 · 16:20M. Kolbusovsky2.63413941P. Cibik1.44111111113WSep 18 · 15:50M. Nemec2.385790P. Cibik1.531111113LSep 18 · 14:50P. Cibik1.44611951R. Zeman2.6311911113WSep 16 · 21:23P. Cibik1.7211111113S. Matousch2.00851171WSep 16 · 20:20S. Matousch1.8310111081P. Cibik1.8312512113LSep 16 · 19:50T. Barsa1.50121014113P. Cibik2.5010121291
Upcoming Matches
T. Jr
P. Cibik
Nothing scheduled
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