TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13152497
Played Sep 18Finished
Pavel Cibik
Home
1.44
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
611119911511––
Radek Zeman
Away
2.63
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:19 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePavel Cibik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPavel Cibik above · Radek Zeman below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 73 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Pavel Cibik at 54.0%
73 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Cibik 19–9 Radek Zeman Radek Zeman has won 9 of their 28 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:19What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Cibik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
19-9 in 28
Cibik
Wrong
gap of 10 in 28, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cibik 1470 vs Zeman 1494
Zeman
Correct
both rated, 24 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cibik 60% vs Zeman 80%
Zeman
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cibik 50% vs Zeman 80%
Zeman
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Cibik +2 · Zeman +4
Zeman
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Cibik) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zeman form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCibik 1.44 / Zeman 2.63
Signal prob.67% / 34%
Edge (Cibik)+2.0pp
TT Cup · #13152497
Cibik1.44
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite63% won 69 of 110
Up 2–0, closes it91% 30 of 33
Up 1–0, closes it76% 50 of 66
Zeman2.63
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog37% won 31 of 83
Down 0–1, comes back20% 10 of 49
Down 0–2, comes back11% 3 of 27
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCibik7wins
AwayZeman3wins
5 of 10 to a deciderCibik leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCibik66.7%6 of 9
AwayZemann = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cibik9Zeman1n = 10Cibik took 9 of 10
S2Cibik8Zeman2n = 10Cibik took 8 of 10
S3Cibik7Zeman3n = 10Cibik took 7 of 10
S4Cibik1Zeman5n = 6Zeman took 5 of 6
S5Cibik2Zeman3n = 5Zeman took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricCibikZemanC − ZBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match42.136.8+5.3per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCibikZemanBasisWin rate · lifetime316 / 684 vs 320 / 61246.2%52.3%316 / 684 vs 320 / 612Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.237.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CibikCibik 1.44/Zeman 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
66.5%
Cibik · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Zeman won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 13 · 13:55P. Cibik4161113113R. Zeman381191171
WSep 13 · 11:50P. Cibik341111123R. Zeman2257100
WSep 12 · 14:55P. Cibik49111188113R. Zeman4159111152
WSep 7 · 21:20P. Cibik331111113R. Zeman165740
LSep 7 · 20:20P. Cibik471111103122R. Zeman52871211143
WSep 6 · 10:20P. Cibik421615113R. Zeman35141380
WAug 30 · 21:24P. Cibik341211113R. Zeman1610060
WAug 30 · 20:20P. Cibik5611121110123R. Zeman53914812102
LAug 13 · 22:25P. Cibik4211146832R. Zeman494121111113
LAug 13 · 18:55P. Cibik4311711952R. Zeman46711611113
P. Cibik10
LSep 18 · 17:54R. Zeman2.20119311113P. Cibik1.6191111792WSep 18 · 16:20M. Kolbusovsky2.63413941P. Cibik1.44111111113WSep 18 · 15:50M. Nemec2.385790P. Cibik1.531111113WSep 16 · 21:23P. Cibik1.7211111113S. Matousch2.00851171WSep 16 · 20:20S. Matousch1.8310111081P. Cibik1.8312512113LSep 16 · 19:50T. Barsa1.50121014113P. Cibik2.5010121291LSep 16 · 18:50P. Cibik2.2061191152Z. Vyskocil1.61117116113WSep 14 · 21:30Z. Vyskocil1.551112513102P. Cibik2.308141111123LSep 14 · 20:20P. Cibik1.676760S. Matousch2.101111113LSep 14 · 19:20P. Cibik2.00911691Z. Vyskocil1.7311411113
R. Zeman10
WSep 18 · 17:54R. Zeman2.20119311113P. Cibik1.6191111792WSep 18 · 16:50R. Zeman1.361113133M. Nemec3.00811110WSep 18 · 15:20M. Kolbusovsky5.003690R. Zeman1.141111113WSep 15 · 21:50R. Zeman2.651111113J. Mach1.426480WSep 15 · 20:50M. Dlask2.104640R. Zeman1.671111113WSep 15 · 19:50R. Zeman3.00811128113J. Mach1.36119101192WSep 15 · 18:20M. Nemec3.0011611952R. Zeman1.36211411113LSep 13 · 13:55P. Cibik1.6161113113R. Zeman2.201191171WSep 13 · 12:20M. Nemec2.753770R. Zeman1.401111113LSep 13 · 11:50P. Cibik1.531111123R. Zeman2.3857100
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