TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13137007
Played Sep 15Finished
Radek Zeman
Home
2.65
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
116114118––––
Jakub Mach
Away
1.42
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:20 and never touched — 69.5% is still 69.5%
Graded at full timeJakub Mach to win
69.5%
69.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRadek Zeman above · Jakub Mach below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 51 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Jakub Mach at 69.5%
51 points played in total.
H2H Radek Zeman 5–14 Jakub Mach Radek Zeman has won 5 of their 19 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Zeman beat Mach 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:20What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.42 (65%)
Mach
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-14 in 19
Mach
Wrong
gap of 9 in 19, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zeman 1478 vs Mach 1512
Mach
Wrong
both rated, 34 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zeman 80% vs Mach 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zeman 70% vs Mach 80%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Zeman +3 · Mach +1
Zeman
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% — Clear lean (leans Mach)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zeman form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZeman 2.65 / Mach 1.42
Signal prob.31% / 70%
Edge (Mach)+4.4pp
TT Cup · #13137007
Zeman2.65
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog36% won 29 of 81
Down 0–1, comes back19% 9 of 48
Down 0–2, comes back11% 3 of 27
Mach1.42
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite64% won 43 of 67
Up 2–0, closes it83% 19 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it77% 34 of 44
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZeman3wins
AwayMach7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderMach leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZeman50%2 of 4
AwayMach83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zeman4Mach6n = 10Mach took 6 of 10
S2Zeman4Mach6n = 10Mach took 6 of 10
S3Zeman4Mach6n = 10Mach took 6 of 10
S4Zeman1Mach6n = 7Mach took 6 of 7
S5Zeman2Mach1n = 3Zeman took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricZemanMachZ − MBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.841.3−4.5per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZemanMachBasisWin rate · lifetime320 / 612 vs 201 / 41552.3%48.4%320 / 612 vs 201 / 415Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.437.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MachZeman 2.65/Mach 1.42
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
69.5%
Mach · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Zeman won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 15 · 21:50R. Zeman331111113J. Mach186480
WSep 15 · 19:50R. Zeman50811128113J. Mach50119101192
LAug 25 · 19:20R. Zeman37119891J. Mach3741111113
LAug 23 · 15:18R. Zeman1910270J. Mach341211113
LAug 9 · 11:20R. Zeman4251281162J. Mach491110116113
LJul 25 · 14:25R. Zeman4416101171J. Mach4618125113
LJul 25 · 11:25R. Zeman2631490J. Mach381116113
LJul 22 · 19:50R. Zeman321172121J. Mach4591111143
LJul 20 · 18:50R. Zeman326111141J. Mach4311813113
WJul 14 · 21:30R. Zeman53118117163J. Mach53811911142
R. Zeman10
WSep 15 · 20:50M. Dlask2.104640R. Zeman1.671111113WSep 15 · 19:50R. Zeman3.00811128113J. Mach1.36119101192WSep 15 · 18:20M. Nemec3.0011611952R. Zeman1.36211411113LSep 13 · 13:55P. Cibik1.6161113113R. Zeman2.201191171WSep 13 · 12:20M. Nemec2.753770R. Zeman1.401111113LSep 13 · 11:50P. Cibik1.531111123R. Zeman2.3857100WSep 13 · 10:50R. Zeman1.731511123Z. Dusek2.00138100WSep 12 · 18:00R. Zeman1.131211113M. Kolbusovsky5.5010370WSep 12 · 16:55R. Zeman1.251111113M. Kolbusovsky3.754660LSep 12 · 15:55R. Zeman1.835580O. Hula1.831111113
J. Mach10
WSep 15 · 20:20M. Nemec2.63101171172J. Mach1.44129119113LSep 15 · 19:50R. Zeman3.00811128113J. Mach1.36119101192WSep 15 · 18:50J. Mach1.571111133M. Dlask2.2536110WAug 25 · 21:55M. Nemec1.7054120J. Mach1.961111143WAug 25 · 20:20J. Mach1.571111811113M. Dlask2.2599111342WAug 25 · 19:20J. Mach1.5041111113R. Zeman2.50119891LAug 25 · 18:20J. Mach1.5011101191M. Nemec2.5091213113WAug 23 · 17:59J. Mach1.731113113M. Nemec2.0011190WAug 23 · 16:50J. Mach2.251112911113Z. Dusek1.5731411862WAug 23 · 15:18R. Zeman2.5010270J. Mach1.501211113
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