Tomas Cerveny Jr vs Michal Kolbusovsky 3-1

TT Lossbeater/TT Cup

TT Cup

Played Sep 21Finished

Tomas Cerveny Jr

Home

1.53

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

7–3Last 10Won last 1

Final

3 – 1

Set by set

1161191113118––

Michal Kolbusovsky

Away

2.38

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

1–9Last 10Won last 1

The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:04 and never touched — 60.5% is still 60.5%

Graded at full time

Tomas Cerveny Jr to win

60.5%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Right

not sent

«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.

How it is goingTomas Cerveny Jr above · Michal Kolbusovsky below

Set 1 · 11-6

Set 2 · 11-9

Set 3 · 11-13

Set 4 · 11-8

Point 80 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Tomas Cerveny Jr at 60.5%

80 points played in total.

The pickConfirm

Sealed 21:04

What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.53 (61%)

Correct

no bar to clear — a priced side always votes

H2H

No meetings

—

No value

they have never met

Rating (G2)

Jr 1545 vs Kolbusovsky 1222

Correct

both rated, 323 points apart — no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Jr 80% vs Kolbusovsky 20%

Correct

60pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Jr 70% vs Kolbusovsky 10%

Correct

60pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Streak

Jr +1 · Kolbusovsky +1

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

4 for, 2 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.

Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Jr) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Kolbusovsky form (20%) is below what odds imply (42%)

Market vs Signals

Market oddsJr 1.53 / Kolbusovsky 2.38

Signal prob.64% / 36%

Edge (Jr)+2.8pp

TT Cup · #13166601

Jr1.53

70%won 7 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

60%takes the first set · 6 of 10

As favourite63% won 69 of 109

Up 2–0, closes it94% 31 of 33

Up 1–0, closes it82% 54 of 66

Kolbusovsky2.38

10%won 1 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

20%takes the first set · 2 of 10

As underdog34% won 53 of 157

Down 0–1, comes back19% 17 of 89

Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 49

Head to head

H2H window

First meeting

These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands — it is the only comparison available.

Career, not this matchup

MetricJrKolbusovskyBasisWin rate · lifetime336 / 610 vs 206 / 45655.1%45.2%336 / 610 vs 206 / 456Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.3per match

Deep Dive by Market

Each market builds on the overview above

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction

Match Winner

Jr 1.53/Kolbusovsky 2.38

Read onlywould have hit

What we said

63.6%

Jr · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–1

Jr won

Total sets · Score

These two have never met.

The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together — one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.

Recent Results

T. Jr10