TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 21Finished
Roman Merkl
Home
1.53
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1191171210––––
Ondrej Horak
Away
2.38
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:17 and never touched — 59.6% is still 59.6%
Graded at full timeRoman Merkl to win
59.6%
59.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRoman Merkl above · Ondrej Horak below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 12-10
Point 60 set 3, 12-10 — our read held Roman Merkl at 59.6%
60 points played in total.
H2H Roman Merkl 7–1 Ondrej Horak Ondrej Horak has won 1 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:17What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Merkl
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-1 in 8
Merkl
Correct
gap of 6 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Merkl 1530 vs Horak 1531
Horak
Wrong
both rated, 1 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Merkl 20% vs Horak 40%
Horak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Merkl 40% vs Horak 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Merkl -4 · Horak -2
Merkl
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Merkl) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Merkl form (20%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMerkl 1.53 / Horak 2.38
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Merkl)-2.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13166413
Merkl1.53
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite55% won 50 of 91
Up 2–0, closes it90% 27 of 30
Up 1–0, closes it71% 32 of 45
Horak2.38
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog43% won 27 of 63
Down 0–1, comes back25% 10 of 40
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 25
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeMerkl7wins
AwayHorak1wins
1 of 8 to a deciderMerkl leads 7–1, and 1 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMerkl83.3%5 of 6
AwayHorakn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Merkl6Horak2n = 8Merkl took 6 of 8
S2Merkl6Horak2n = 8Merkl took 6 of 8
S3Merkl7Horak1n = 8Merkl took 7 of 8
S4Merkl4Horak1n = 5Merkl took 4 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home338%
3–1Four sets, home450%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 8 meetings
MetricMerklHorakM − HBasisWins71+6in 8 meetingsFirst set62+4of 8Avg pointsper match39.032.9+6.1per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMerklHorakBasisWin rate · lifetime265 / 554 vs 93 / 19347.8%48.2%265 / 554 vs 93 / 193Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.737.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MerklMerkl 1.53/Horak 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58%
Merkl · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Merkl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WSep 21 · 15:15R. Merkl341111123O. Horak2697100
WJan 22 · 17:34R. Merkl4211811123O. Horak357117101
WJan 22 · 16:30R. Merkl361111143O. Horak2659120
LDec 11 · 14:45R. Merkl4312611772O. Horak481011511113
WJul 17 · 13:45R. Merkl4211126133O. Horak4081011111
WJul 11 · 17:05R. Merkl46131111113O. Horak35156861
WJul 11 · 15:00R. Merkl331111113O. Horak239680
WApr 24 · 14:30R. Merkl3621111123O. Horak301136101
R. Merkl10
LSep 21 · 14:15R. Merkl2.10111410452P. Hala1.675121211113LSep 21 · 13:15R. Merkl2.2512119532V. Lopata1.571011111113LSep 17 · 16:23R. Merkl1.9111117182P. Provaznik1.80941111113LSep 17 · 15:15P. Provaznik1.83117511113R. Merkl1.8331111682WSep 17 · 14:45R. Merkl2.20761111153P. Hala1.61111198132WSep 17 · 13:45R. Merkl2.38111011123V. Lopata1.538128101LSep 14 · 21:08P. Rucky1.5361111123R. Merkl2.381174101WSep 14 · 19:30S. Kalensky1.83611591R. Merkl1.8311811113LSep 14 · 19:00R. Merkl2.2585111192P. Rucky1.57111149113WSep 14 · 18:00R. Merkl2.001112123J. Jnr1.73610100
O. Horak10
LSep 21 · 14:45O. Horak1.671411981V. Lopata2.1016511113LSep 21 · 13:45O. Horak1.91112861P. Hala1.8071111113WSep 16 · 16:14O. Horak1.731111113P. Provaznik2.008860LSep 16 · 15:45O. Horak2.00441181J. Juppa1.7311115113WSep 16 · 14:15T. Bertho2.202980O. Horak1.611111113LSep 16 · 13:45P. Provaznik2.00116134123O. Horak1.738111111102WSep 11 · 17:03P. Hala1.6713760O. Horak2.101511113WSep 11 · 15:30A. Pavlik2.00104100O. Horak1.731211123WSep 11 · 15:00O. Horak1.801111113V. Lopata1.917420LSep 11 · 14:00O. Horak2.0039110P. Hala1.731111133
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