TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 21Finished
Ondrej Horak
Home
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1416115911811––
Vladimir Lopata
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:17 and never touched — 57.8% is still 57.8%
Graded at full timeOndrej Horak to win
57.8%
57.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOndrej Horak above · Vladimir Lopata below
Set 1 · 14-16
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 85 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Ondrej Horak at 57.8%
85 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Horak 9–3 Vladimir Lopata Vladimir Lopata has won 3 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:17What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Horak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-3 in 12
Horak
Wrong
gap of 6 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Horak 1557 vs Lopata 1560
Lopata
Correct
both rated, 3 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Horak 40% vs Lopata 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Horak 60% vs Lopata 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Horak -1 · Lopata +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Horak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Horak form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHorak 1.67 / Lopata 2.10
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Horak)+2.0pp
Setka Cup · #13166405
Horak1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite67% won 18 of 27
Up 2–0, closes it100% 8 of 8
Up 1–0, closes it73% 11 of 15
Lopata2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog36% won 9 of 25
Down 0–1, comes back0% 0 of 9
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 7
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHorak7wins
AwayLopata3wins
1 of 10 to a deciderHorak leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHorak100%7 of 7
AwayLopata100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Horak7Lopata3n = 10Horak took 7 of 10
S2Horak5Lopata5n = 10split evenly
S3Horak5Lopata5n = 10split evenly
S4Horak4Lopata1n = 5Horak took 4 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricHorakLopataH − LBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match34.530.7+3.8per matchSweeps32+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHorakLopataBasisWin rate · lifetime93 / 191 vs 143 / 27748.7%51.6%93 / 191 vs 143 / 277Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.039.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HorakHorak 1.67/Lopata 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.8%
Horak · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Lopata won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 11 · 15:00O. Horak331111113V. Lopata137420
WApr 24 · 16:29O. Horak49117811123V. Lopata46811116102
WApr 24 · 14:30O. Horak4111811113V. Lopata26511281
LJan 2 · 13:28O. Horak166550V. Lopata331111113
WJan 2 · 11:15O. Horak44111110123V. Lopata377812101
LNov 20 · 15:00O. Horak216690V. Lopata331111113
WMay 7 · 16:48O. Horak341211113V. Lopata2210480
WMay 7 · 14:30O. Horak331111113V. Lopata238960
LApr 29 · 16:00O. Horak331081141V. Lopata4012116113
WFeb 26 · 16:00O. Horak4111118113V. Lopata34951191
O. Horak10
LSep 21 · 15:15R. Merkl1.531111123O. Horak2.3897100LSep 21 · 13:45O. Horak1.91112861P. Hala1.8071111113WSep 16 · 16:14O. Horak1.731111113P. Provaznik2.008860LSep 16 · 15:45O. Horak2.00441181J. Juppa1.7311115113WSep 16 · 14:15T. Bertho2.202980O. Horak1.611111113LSep 16 · 13:45P. Provaznik2.00116134123O. Horak1.738111111102WSep 11 · 17:03P. Hala1.6713760O. Horak2.101511113WSep 11 · 15:30A. Pavlik2.00104100O. Horak1.731211123WSep 11 · 15:00O. Horak1.801111113V. Lopata1.917420LSep 11 · 14:00O. Horak2.0039110P. Hala1.731111133
V. Lopata10
WSep 21 · 13:15R. Merkl2.2512119532V. Lopata1.571011111113WSep 19 · 16:24V. Lopata1.831211133L. Stoces1.83107110LSep 19 · 15:45J. Juppa1.803131111113V. Lopata1.9111158772LSep 19 · 14:45L. Stoces2.3811115143V. Lopata1.532811121LSep 19 · 13:15V. Herrmann2.00118511103V. Lopata1.7381111892WSep 17 · 16:54P. Hala2.00118791V. Lopata1.7351111113LSep 17 · 15:45V. Lopata1.6111371172P. Hala2.20611119113WSep 17 · 14:15P. Provaznik1.738111091V. Lopata2.0011912113LSep 17 · 13:45R. Merkl2.38111011123V. Lopata1.538128101LSep 11 · 15:00O. Horak1.801111113V. Lopata1.917420
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