TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13154991
Played Sep 19Finished
Ludek Stoces
Home
2.38
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1121185111412––
Vladimir Lopata
Away
1.53
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:21 and never touched — 61.6% is still 61.6%
Graded at full timeVladimir Lopata to win
61.6%
61.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingLudek Stoces above · Vladimir Lopata below
Set 1 · 11-2
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 14-12
Point 74 set 4, 14-12 — our read held Vladimir Lopata at 61.6%
74 points played in total.
H2H Ludek Stoces 2–2 Vladimir Lopata Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:21What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Lopata
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stoces 1485 vs Lopata 1579
Lopata
Wrong
both rated, 94 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stoces 60% vs Lopata 40%
Stoces
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stoces 40% vs Lopata 60%
Lopata
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stoces +1 · Lopata -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Slight lean (leans Lopata)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lopata form (40%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStoces 2.38 / Lopata 1.53
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Lopata)+0.8pp
Setka Cup · #13154991
Stoces2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog35% won 14 of 40
Down 0–1, comes back22% 6 of 27
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 14
Lopata1.53
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite48% won 27 of 56
Up 2–0, closes it80% 8 of 10
Up 1–0, closes it70% 19 of 27
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeStoces2wins
AwayLopata2wins
1 of 4 to a deciderLevel at 2–2, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stoces2Lopata2n = 4split evenly
S2Stoces1Lopata3n = 4Lopata took 3 of 4
S3Stoces1Lopata2n = 3Lopata took 2 of 3
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away250%
These 4 meetings
MetricStocesLopataS − LBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match31.338.0−6.7per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStocesLopataBasisWin rate · lifetime88 / 205 vs 141 / 27342.9%51.7%88 / 205 vs 141 / 273Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.039.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LopataStoces 2.38/Lopata 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
61.6%
Lopata · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Stoces won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LSep 12 · 15:45L. Stoces197570V. Lopata331111113
WAug 29 · 14:45L. Stoces501161210113V. Lopata46711101262
LAug 22 · 11:00L. Stoces2595110V. Lopata351111133
L. Stoces10
LSep 19 · 15:15V. Herrmann1.801113811113L. Stoces1.9161511982LSep 19 · 13:45L. Stoces2.35101060J. Juppa1.52121283WSep 19 · 08:39J. Jnr2.00761191L. Stoces1.7311119113LSep 19 · 07:30L. Stoces1.805470P. Orlowski1.911111113WSep 19 · 06:30L. Stoces1.7314811113J. Jnr2.001211851LSep 19 · 05:30L. Stoces2.3812690D. Brichacek1.531411113WSep 12 · 16:16L. Stoces1.951117113O. Chadima1.7531570LSep 12 · 15:45L. Stoces1.837570V. Lopata1.831111113LSep 12 · 14:15O. Chadima2.10111111113L. Stoces1.67139681LSep 12 · 13:45V. Herrmann1.9161113113L. Stoces1.801181171
V. Lopata10
LSep 19 · 15:45J. Juppa1.803131111113V. Lopata1.9111158772LSep 19 · 13:15V. Herrmann2.00118511103V. Lopata1.7381111892WSep 17 · 16:54P. Hala2.00118791V. Lopata1.7351111113LSep 17 · 15:45V. Lopata1.6111371172P. Hala2.20611119113WSep 17 · 14:15P. Provaznik1.738111091V. Lopata2.0011912113LSep 17 · 13:45R. Merkl2.38111011123V. Lopata1.538128101WSep 12 · 16:46V. Lopata2.201112123V. Herrmann1.60610100WSep 12 · 15:45L. Stoces1.837570V. Lopata1.831111113LSep 12 · 14:45V. Herrmann1.83911511113V. Lopata1.8311311882WSep 11 · 16:34V. Lopata1.80115119113A. Pavlik1.9171191192
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