TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13155419
Played Sep 19Finished
Ludek Stoces
Home
2.35
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1012101268––––
Jachym Juppa
Away
1.52
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:51 and never touched — 62.0% is still 62.0%
Graded at full timeJachym Juppa to win
62.0%
62.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLudek Stoces above · Jachym Juppa below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 6-8
Point 58 set 3, 6-8 — our read held Jachym Juppa at 62.0%
58 points played in total.
H2H Ludek Stoces 3–4 Jachym Juppa Ludek Stoces has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:51What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.52 (61%)
Juppa
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-4 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stoces 1517 vs Juppa 1554
Juppa
Correct
both rated, 36 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stoces 60% vs Juppa 80%
Juppa
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stoces 40% vs Juppa 60%
Juppa
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stoces +1 · Juppa +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Juppa) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Juppa form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (66%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStoces 2.35 / Juppa 1.52
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Juppa)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13155419
Stoces2.35
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog35% won 14 of 40
Down 0–1, comes back22% 6 of 27
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 14
Juppa1.52
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite50% won 59 of 119
Up 2–0, closes it91% 31 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it64% 48 of 75
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeStoces3wins
AwayJuppa4wins
3 of 7 to a deciderJuppa leads 4–3, and 3 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStocesn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayJuppa50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stoces1Juppa6n = 7Juppa took 6 of 7
S2Stoces3Juppa4n = 7Juppa took 4 of 7
S3Stoces3Juppa4n = 7Juppa took 4 of 7
S4Stoces1Juppa4n = 5Juppa took 4 of 5
S5Stoces3Juppa0n = 3Stoces took 3 of 3
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home343%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away229%
0–3Straight, away229%
These 7 meetings
MetricStocesJuppaS − JBasisWins34−1in 7 meetingsFirst set16−5of 7Avg pointsper match38.343.7−5.4per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStocesJuppaBasisWin rate · lifetime88 / 204 vs 444 / 85043.1%52.2%88 / 204 vs 444 / 850Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.138.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JuppaStoces 2.35/Juppa 1.52
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.1%
Juppa · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Juppa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LJun 28 · 14:45L. Stoces2411940J. Juppa351311113
WJun 21 · 05:15L. Stoces531112115143J. Juppa551310911122
LJun 13 · 19:00L. Stoces34116981J. Juppa4071111113
WJun 7 · 05:15L. Stoces55913715113J. Juppa551111111392
LApr 4 · 18:00L. Stoces30671161J. Juppa4111118113
WMar 20 · 20:45L. Stoces47812115113J. Juppa47111061192
LMar 17 · 21:00L. Stoces258890J. Juppa331111113
L. Stoces10
LSep 19 · 15:15V. Herrmann1.801113811113L. Stoces1.9161511982WSep 19 · 14:45L. Stoces2.3811115143V. Lopata1.532811121WSep 19 · 08:39J. Jnr2.00761191L. Stoces1.7311119113LSep 19 · 07:30L. Stoces1.805470P. Orlowski1.911111113WSep 19 · 06:30L. Stoces1.7314811113J. Jnr2.001211851LSep 19 · 05:30L. Stoces2.3812690D. Brichacek1.531411113WSep 12 · 16:16L. Stoces1.951117113O. Chadima1.7531570LSep 12 · 15:45L. Stoces1.837570V. Lopata1.831111113LSep 12 · 14:15O. Chadima2.10111111113L. Stoces1.67139681LSep 12 · 13:45V. Herrmann1.9161113113L. Stoces1.801181171
J. Juppa10
WSep 19 · 15:45J. Juppa1.803131111113V. Lopata1.9111158772WSep 19 · 14:15V. Herrmann2.00511991J. Juppa1.7311911113WSep 18 · 17:00J. Juppa2.0011116113Z. Kuksa1.73981171WSep 18 · 16:00J. Juppa1.5381111113T. Bertho2.38115881LSep 18 · 14:30Z. Kuksa1.731111113J. Juppa2.009790WSep 18 · 14:00T. Hanke1.615117101J. Juppa2.2011411123WSep 16 · 16:43J. Juppa1.6111514133T. Bertho2.2071112111WSep 16 · 15:45O. Horak2.00441181J. Juppa1.7311115113WSep 16 · 14:45P. Provaznik1.8011951182J. Juppa1.91711119113LSep 16 · 13:15T. Bertho2.5071111113J. Juppa1.50114661
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