TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13155641
Played Sep 19Finished
Jachym Juppa
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
3111315118117117
Vladimir Lopata
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:31 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJachym Juppa to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJachym Juppa above · Vladimir Lopata below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 13-15
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 97 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Jachym Juppa at 54.0%
97 points played in total.
H2H Jachym Juppa 9–8 Vladimir Lopata Vladimir Lopata has won 8 of their 17 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:31What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Juppa
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-8 in 17
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Juppa 1585 vs Lopata 1560
Juppa
Correct
both rated, 25 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Juppa 80% vs Lopata 40%
Juppa
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Juppa 80% vs Lopata 50%
Juppa
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Juppa +4 · Lopata -2
Juppa
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Juppa)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lopata form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJuppa 1.80 / Lopata 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Juppa)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13155641
Juppa1.80
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite50% won 59 of 119
Up 2–0, closes it91% 31 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it64% 48 of 75
Lopata1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog43% won 12 of 28
Down 0–1, comes back9% 1 of 11
Down 0–2, comes back11% 1 of 9
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJuppa6wins
AwayLopata4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderJuppa leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJuppa83.3%5 of 6
AwayLopata75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Juppa6Lopata4n = 10Juppa took 6 of 10
S2Juppa6Lopata4n = 10Juppa took 6 of 10
S3Juppa6Lopata4n = 10Juppa took 6 of 10
S4Juppa5Lopata3n = 8Juppa took 5 of 8
S5Juppa1Lopata2n = 3Lopata took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricJuppaLopataJ − LBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.036.1+2.9per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJuppaLopataBasisWin rate · lifetime441 / 845 vs 141 / 27452.2%51.5%441 / 845 vs 141 / 274Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.539.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JuppaJuppa 1.80/Lopata 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Juppa · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Juppa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 14 · 13:15J. Juppa48124121192V. Lopata511411105113
WAug 2 · 16:48J. Juppa331111113V. Lopata247890
WAug 2 · 14:15J. Juppa331111113V. Lopata248970
LJul 9 · 09:45J. Juppa28711641V. Lopata4011711113
WApr 24 · 13:30J. Juppa45111211113V. Lopata31614381
WApr 5 · 13:15J. Juppa4271112123V. Lopata3711610101
LJan 12 · 15:30J. Juppa48111191072V. Lopata49781112113
WDec 5 · 17:14J. Juppa4011117113V. Lopata23431151
LDec 5 · 16:15J. Juppa34951191V. Lopata3911116113
WNov 8 · 21:29J. Juppa39113311113V. Lopata4391111572
J. Juppa10
WSep 19 · 14:15V. Herrmann2.00511991J. Juppa1.7311911113WSep 19 · 13:45L. Stoces2.35101060J. Juppa1.52121283WSep 18 · 17:00J. Juppa2.0011116113Z. Kuksa1.73981171WSep 18 · 16:00J. Juppa1.5381111113T. Bertho2.38115881LSep 18 · 14:30Z. Kuksa1.731111113J. Juppa2.009790WSep 18 · 14:00T. Hanke1.615117101J. Juppa2.2011411123WSep 16 · 16:43J. Juppa1.6111514133T. Bertho2.2071112111WSep 16 · 15:45O. Horak2.00441181J. Juppa1.7311115113WSep 16 · 14:45P. Provaznik1.8011951182J. Juppa1.91711119113LSep 16 · 13:15T. Bertho2.5071111113J. Juppa1.50114661
V. Lopata10
WSep 19 · 16:24V. Lopata1.831211133L. Stoces1.83107110LSep 19 · 14:45L. Stoces2.3811115143V. Lopata1.532811121LSep 19 · 13:15V. Herrmann2.00118511103V. Lopata1.7381111892WSep 17 · 16:54P. Hala2.00118791V. Lopata1.7351111113LSep 17 · 15:45V. Lopata1.6111371172P. Hala2.20611119113WSep 17 · 14:15P. Provaznik1.738111091V. Lopata2.0011912113LSep 17 · 13:45R. Merkl2.38111011123V. Lopata1.538128101WSep 12 · 16:46V. Lopata2.201112123V. Herrmann1.60610100WSep 12 · 15:45L. Stoces1.837570V. Lopata1.831111113LSep 12 · 14:45V. Herrmann1.83911511113V. Lopata1.8311311882
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