TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13160379
Played Sep 19Finished
Vladimir Lopata
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
12101171311––––
Ludek Stoces
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
How it is goingVladimir Lopata above · Ludek Stoces below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 13-11
Point 64 set 3, 13-11
64 points played in total.
H2H Vladimir Lopata 2–3 Ludek Stoces Vladimir Lopata has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Stoces beat Lopata 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Stoces)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stoces form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLopata 1.83 / Stoces 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Stoces)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13160379
Lopata1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Stoces1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeLopata2wins
AwayStoces3wins
1 of 5 to a deciderStoces leads 3–2, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLopatan = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayStoces100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lopata2Stoces3n = 5Stoces took 3 of 5
S2Lopata3Stoces2n = 5Lopata took 3 of 5
S3Lopata3Stoces1n = 4Lopata took 3 of 4
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home240%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricLopataStocesL − SBasisWins23−1in 5 meetingsFirst set23−1of 5Avg pointsper match36.833.8+3.0per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLopataStocesBasisWin rate · lifetime141 / 275 vs 89 / 20751.3%43%141 / 275 vs 89 / 207Avg sets wonper match2.21.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.938.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StocesLopata 1.83/Stoces 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Stoces · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Lopata won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LSep 19 · 14:45V. Lopata332811121L. Stoces4111115143
WSep 12 · 15:45V. Lopata331111113L. Stoces197570
LAug 29 · 14:45V. Lopata46711101262L. Stoces501161210113
WAug 22 · 11:00V. Lopata351111133L. Stoces2595110
V. Lopata10
LSep 19 · 15:45J. Juppa1.803131111113V. Lopata1.9111158772LSep 19 · 14:45L. Stoces2.3811115143V. Lopata1.532811121LSep 19 · 13:15V. Herrmann2.00118511103V. Lopata1.7381111892WSep 17 · 16:54P. Hala2.00118791V. Lopata1.7351111113LSep 17 · 15:45V. Lopata1.6111371172P. Hala2.20611119113WSep 17 · 14:15P. Provaznik1.738111091V. Lopata2.0011912113LSep 17 · 13:45R. Merkl2.38111011123V. Lopata1.538128101WSep 12 · 16:46V. Lopata2.201112123V. Herrmann1.60610100WSep 12 · 15:45L. Stoces1.837570V. Lopata1.831111113LSep 12 · 14:45V. Herrmann1.83911511113V. Lopata1.8311311882
L. Stoces10
LSep 19 · 15:15V. Herrmann1.801113811113L. Stoces1.9161511982WSep 19 · 14:45L. Stoces2.3811115143V. Lopata1.532811121LSep 19 · 13:45L. Stoces2.35101060J. Juppa1.52121283WSep 19 · 08:39J. Jnr2.00761191L. Stoces1.7311119113LSep 19 · 07:30L. Stoces1.805470P. Orlowski1.911111113WSep 19 · 06:30L. Stoces1.7314811113J. Jnr2.001211851LSep 19 · 05:30L. Stoces2.3812690D. Brichacek1.531411113WSep 12 · 16:16L. Stoces1.951117113O. Chadima1.7531570LSep 12 · 15:45L. Stoces1.837570V. Lopata1.831111113LSep 12 · 14:15O. Chadima2.10111111113L. Stoces1.67139681
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