TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 21Finished
Roman Merkl
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1210111911511311
Vladimir Lopata
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:18 and never touched — 59.3% is still 59.3%
Graded at full timeVladimir Lopata to win
59.3%
59.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRoman Merkl above · Vladimir Lopata below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-1
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 3-11
Point 84 set 5, 3-11 — our read held Vladimir Lopata at 59.3%
84 points played in total.
H2H Roman Merkl 3–5 Vladimir Lopata Roman Merkl has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:18What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Lopata
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-5 in 8
Lopata
Correct
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Merkl 1535 vs Lopata 1550
Lopata
Correct
both rated, 15 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Merkl 40% vs Lopata 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Merkl 40% vs Lopata 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Merkl -2 · Lopata +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Lopata)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lopata form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMerkl 2.25 / Lopata 1.57
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Lopata)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13166391
Merkl2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 4 days ago (Sep 17)
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog49% won 88 of 178
Down 0–1, comes back39% 41 of 105
Down 0–2, comes back19% 9 of 47
Lopata1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 19)
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite47% won 27 of 58
Up 2–0, closes it80% 8 of 10
Up 1–0, closes it70% 19 of 27
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeMerkl3wins
AwayLopata5wins
4 of 8 to a deciderLopata leads 5–3, and 4 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMerkl66.7%2 of 3
AwayLopata80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Merkl3Lopata5n = 8Lopata took 5 of 8
S2Merkl1Lopata7n = 8Lopata took 7 of 8
S3Merkl4Lopata4n = 8split evenly
S4Merkl4Lopata2n = 6Merkl took 4 of 6
S5Merkl2Lopata2n = 4split evenly
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home113%
3–2Decider, home225%
2–3Decider, away225%
1–3Four sets, away113%
0–3Straight, away225%
These 8 meetings
MetricMerklLopataM − LBasisWins35−2in 8 meetingsFirst set35−2of 8Avg pointsper match38.442.1−3.7per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMerklLopataBasisWin rate · lifetime270 / 559 vs 142 / 27648.3%51.5%270 / 559 vs 142 / 276Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.639.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LopataMerkl 2.25/Lopata 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.3%
Lopata · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Lopata won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WSep 17 · 13:45R. Merkl44111011123V. Lopata388128101
WJul 25 · 10:00R. Merkl511161112113V. Lopata4541181482
LJan 3 · 19:30R. Merkl209470V. Lopata331111113
LDec 21 · 22:00R. Merkl4714871172V. Lopata521211117113
WDec 21 · 21:00R. Merkl50712911113V. Lopata44111011572
LSep 10 · 12:27R. Merkl26451161V. Lopata4011117113
LSep 10 · 09:15R. Merkl4294111172V. Lopata50111189113
LMar 25 · 10:45R. Merkl2771190V. Lopata351113113
R. Merkl10
WSep 21 · 15:15R. Merkl1.531111123O. Horak2.3897100LSep 21 · 14:15R. Merkl2.10111410452P. Hala1.675121211113LSep 17 · 16:23R. Merkl1.9111117182P. Provaznik1.80941111113LSep 17 · 15:15P. Provaznik1.83117511113R. Merkl1.8331111682WSep 17 · 14:45R. Merkl2.20761111153P. Hala1.61111198132WSep 17 · 13:45R. Merkl2.38111011123V. Lopata1.538128101LSep 14 · 21:08P. Rucky1.5361111123R. Merkl2.381174101WSep 14 · 19:30S. Kalensky1.83611591R. Merkl1.8311811113LSep 14 · 19:00R. Merkl2.2585111192P. Rucky1.57111149113WSep 14 · 18:00R. Merkl2.001112123J. Jnr1.73610100
V. Lopata10
WSep 21 · 14:45O. Horak1.671411981V. Lopata2.1016511113WSep 19 · 16:24V. Lopata1.831211133L. Stoces1.83107110LSep 19 · 15:45J. Juppa1.803131111113V. Lopata1.9111158772LSep 19 · 14:45L. Stoces2.3811115143V. Lopata1.532811121LSep 19 · 13:15V. Herrmann2.00118511103V. Lopata1.7381111892WSep 17 · 16:54P. Hala2.00118791V. Lopata1.7351111113LSep 17 · 15:45V. Lopata1.6111371172P. Hala2.20611119113WSep 17 · 14:15P. Provaznik1.738111091V. Lopata2.0011912113LSep 17 · 13:45R. Merkl2.38111011123V. Lopata1.538128101WSep 12 · 16:46V. Lopata2.201112123V. Herrmann1.60610100
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.