TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13136558
Played Sep 16Finished
Tadeas Bertho
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
211911811––––
Ondrej Horak
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:37 and never touched — 58.5% is still 58.5%
Graded at full timeOndrej Horak to win
58.5%
58.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTadeas Bertho above · Ondrej Horak below
Set 1 · 2-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 52 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Ondrej Horak at 58.5%
52 points played in total.
H2H Tadeas Bertho 3–3 Ondrej Horak Dead even across their 6 meetings.
Last 6 · 3–3Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:37What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Horak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-3 in 6
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Bertho 1544 vs Horak 1569
Horak
Correct
both rated, 25 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Bertho 60% vs Horak 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Bertho 80% vs Horak 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Bertho +2 · Horak +3
Horak
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Horak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Bertho form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBertho 2.20 / Horak 1.61
Signal prob.42% / 59%
Edge (Horak)+0.8pp
Setka Cup · #13136558
Bertho2.20
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog49% won 63 of 130
Down 0–1, comes back24% 14 of 59
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 29
Horak1.61
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite67% won 16 of 24
Up 2–0, closes it100% 6 of 6
Up 1–0, closes it69% 9 of 13
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeBertho3wins
AwayHorak3wins
2 of 6 to a deciderLevel at 3–3, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBertho50%2 of 4
AwayHorakn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Bertho4Horak2n = 6Bertho took 4 of 6
S2Bertho2Horak4n = 6Horak took 4 of 6
S3Bertho3Horak3n = 6split evenly
S4Bertho3Horak3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home233%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away233%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricBerthoHorakB − HBasisWins330in 6 meetingsFirst set42+2of 6Avg pointsper match39.039.7−0.7per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBerthoHorakBasisWin rate · lifetime356 / 667 vs 95 / 19253.4%49.5%356 / 667 vs 95 / 192Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.737.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HorakBertho 2.20/Horak 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.5%
Horak · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Horak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LJul 28 · 16:39T. Bertho28114941O. Horak4181111113
WJul 28 · 15:30T. Bertho44101112113O. Horak331241071
LJun 25 · 16:19T. Bertho4579111352O. Horak491111511113
WJun 25 · 15:15T. Bertho45111112113O. Horak32571461
LJun 5 · 14:15T. Bertho25118241O. Horak3961111113
WFeb 26 · 16:15T. Bertho47115119113O. Horak4461191172
T. Bertho10
WSep 16 · 15:15T. Bertho2.0011711113P. Provaznik1.73611881WSep 16 · 13:15T. Bertho2.5071111113J. Juppa1.50114661WSep 14 · 20:13P. Maly1.80103100T. Bertho1.911211123LSep 14 · 19:15T. Bertho1.8361111582P. Maly1.83118811113WSep 14 · 18:15T. Bertho1.831211511113Z. Kuksa1.83101311582LSep 14 · 17:15T. Bertho1.735960J. Tichy2.001111113WSep 11 · 20:54T. Bertho1.671261111113L. Hendrych2.10101181392WSep 11 · 19:45L. Hendrych1.91101111932T. Bertho1.80128911113WSep 11 · 18:45K. Jirousek1.917670T. Bertho1.801111113WSep 11 · 17:15J. Botka1.8071111962T. Bertho1.91114911113
O. Horak10
LSep 16 · 13:45P. Provaznik2.00116134123O. Horak1.738111111102WSep 11 · 17:03P. Hala1.6713760O. Horak2.101511113WSep 11 · 15:30A. Pavlik2.00104100O. Horak1.731211123WSep 11 · 15:00O. Horak1.801111113V. Lopata1.917420LSep 11 · 14:00O. Horak2.0039110P. Hala1.731111133LSep 4 · 16:59J. Simek1.73111172O. Horak2.0078111WSep 4 · 15:15P. Provaznik1.91118111452O. Horak1.809111312113WSep 4 · 14:45O. Horak1.80111012113M. Bruk1.916121081LSep 4 · 13:45O. Horak1.83971191J. Simek1.8311119113WAug 27 · 16:54Z. Kuksa1.91149931O. Horak1.80121111113
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