TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 21Finished
Oleksandr Ovsiienko
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
71181113111210411
Maksym Stetsenko
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:06 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Ovsiienko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOleksandr Ovsiienko above · Maksym Stetsenko below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 4-11
Point 98 set 5, 4-11 — our read held Oleksandr Ovsiienko at 54.0%
98 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Ovsiienko 73–58 Maksym Stetsenko Maksym Stetsenko has won 58 of their 131 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 20:06What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Ovsiienko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
73-58 in 131
Ovsiienko
Wrong
gap of 15 in 131, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ovsiienko 1453 vs Stetsenko 1355
Ovsiienko
Wrong
both rated, 98 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ovsiienko 80% vs Stetsenko 40%
Ovsiienko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ovsiienko 90% vs Stetsenko 50%
Ovsiienko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ovsiienko +3 · Stetsenko -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Ovsiienko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stetsenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOvsiienko 1.80 / Stetsenko 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Ovsiienko)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13166358
Ovsiienko1.80
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite67% won 135 of 202
Up 2–0, closes it98% 89 of 91
Up 1–0, closes it85% 110 of 129
Stetsenko1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 92 of 214
Down 0–1, comes back24% 29 of 123
Down 0–2, comes back5% 3 of 60
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOvsiienko6wins
AwayStetsenko4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderOvsiienko leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOvsiienko66.7%4 of 6
AwayStetsenko50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ovsiienko6Stetsenko4n = 10Ovsiienko took 6 of 10
S2Ovsiienko4Stetsenko6n = 10Stetsenko took 6 of 10
S3Ovsiienko5Stetsenko5n = 10split evenly
S4Ovsiienko4Stetsenko2n = 6Ovsiienko took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricOvsiienkoStetsenkoO − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match35.434.6+0.8per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOvsiienkoStetsenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime455 / 877 vs 442 / 85251.9%51.9%455 / 877 vs 442 / 852Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.536.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OvsiienkoOvsiienko 1.80/Stetsenko 1.91
Miss
What we said
54%
Ovsiienko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Stetsenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 19 · 04:30O. Ovsiienko4291111113M. Stetsenko28116471
WSep 17 · 09:50O. Ovsiienko3711211133M. Stetsenko388118111
WSep 14 · 11:20O. Ovsiienko331111113M. Stetsenko165830
LSep 13 · 17:30O. Ovsiienko371213661M. Stetsenko47101511113
WSep 10 · 11:20O. Ovsiienko4181111113M. Stetsenko29116571
LSep 9 · 16:30O. Ovsiienko3911661152M. Stetsenko46511118113
WSep 3 · 05:50O. Ovsiienko47111159113M. Stetsenko3947111162
LAug 31 · 07:50O. Ovsiienko2486100M. Stetsenko341111123
LAug 30 · 19:00O. Ovsiienko1954100M. Stetsenko341111123
O. Ovsiienko10
WSep 21 · 09:35V. Mukhin4.00312741O. Ovsiienko1.22111011113WSep 21 · 08:35O. Ovsiienko1.831111113S. Skhabitskiy1.831140WSep 21 · 07:35D. Ponomarenko2.001111081O. Ovsiienko1.7361112113LSep 21 · 06:05O. Ovsiienko1.8071114822O. Mytsyk1.911191211113WSep 20 · 18:30V. Smyk1.50119491O. Ovsiienko2.5081111113WSep 20 · 17:30O. Lipeiko1.3011127982O. Ovsiienko3.409101111113WSep 20 · 16:00S. Skhabitskiy1.73441131O. Ovsiienko2.0011119113WSep 20 · 12:00V. Nechai2.0051070O. Ovsiienko1.731112113WSep 19 · 11:00K. Klymenko2.7571220O. Ovsiienko1.401114113WSep 19 · 10:00S. Semenets3.753740O. Ovsiienko1.251111113
M. Stetsenko10
LSep 21 · 10:35S. Skhabitskiy2.001311113M. Stetsenko1.7311680LSep 21 · 09:05D. Ponomarenko1.7311123113M. Stetsenko2.006101161LSep 21 · 07:05O. Mytsyk2.501111113M. Stetsenko1.509840WSep 21 · 05:05V. Mukhin3.75117111032M. Stetsenko1.25611912113WSep 19 · 10:30M. Stetsenko1.801211113S. Skhabitskiy1.9110540LSep 19 · 09:00M. Stetsenko3.257119101K. Klymenko1.3311511123WSep 19 · 07:30M. Stetsenko1.531212123V. Melnykov2.381010100WSep 19 · 06:00M. Stetsenko1.2511811113S. Semenets3.75711731LSep 19 · 04:30M. Stetsenko1.83116471O. Ovsiienko1.8391111113WSep 17 · 11:50S. Skhabitskiy1.8321111962M. Stetsenko1.83118811113
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