TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13155103
Played Sep 19Finished
Maksym Stetsenko
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1210115114––––
Sergii Skhabitskiy
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:16 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMaksym Stetsenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMaksym Stetsenko above · Sergii Skhabitskiy below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-4
Point 53 set 3, 11-4 — our read held Maksym Stetsenko at 54.0%
53 points played in total.
H2H Maksym Stetsenko 13–15 Sergii Skhabitskiy Maksym Stetsenko has won 13 of their 28 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:16What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Stetsenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-15 in 28
Skhabitskiy
Wrong
gap of 2 in 28, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stetsenko 1371 vs Skhabitskiy 1366
Stetsenko
Correct
both rated, 6 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stetsenko 60% vs Skhabitskiy 40%
Stetsenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stetsenko 50% vs Skhabitskiy 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Stetsenko -1 · Skhabitskiy +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Stetsenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skhabitskiy form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStetsenko 1.80 / Skhabitskiy 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Stetsenko)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13155103
Stetsenko1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite68% won 117 of 172
Up 2–0, closes it99% 69 of 70
Up 1–0, closes it88% 90 of 102
Skhabitskiy1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog40% won 91 of 230
Down 0–1, comes back21% 24 of 114
Down 0–2, comes back7% 5 of 70
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStetsenko7wins
AwaySkhabitskiy3wins
6 of 10 to a deciderStetsenko leads 7–3, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStetsenko66.7%4 of 6
AwaySkhabitskiy25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stetsenko6Skhabitskiy4n = 10Stetsenko took 6 of 10
S2Stetsenko5Skhabitskiy5n = 10split evenly
S3Stetsenko4Skhabitskiy6n = 10Skhabitskiy took 6 of 10
S4Stetsenko7Skhabitskiy3n = 10Stetsenko took 7 of 10
S5Stetsenko4Skhabitskiy2n = 6Stetsenko took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricStetsenkoSkhabitskiyStetsenko − SkhabitskiyBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match42.941.2+1.7per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStetsenkoSkhabitskiyBasisWin rate · lifetime442 / 852 vs 471 / 106651.9%44.2%442 / 852 vs 471 / 1066Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.036.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StetsenkoStetsenko 1.80/Skhabitskiy 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Stetsenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Stetsenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 17 · 11:50M. Stetsenko49118811113S. Skhabitskiy3921111962
WSep 14 · 09:20M. Stetsenko51891112113S. Skhabitskiy41111141052
WAug 30 · 17:30M. Stetsenko4071111113S. Skhabitskiy31119831
LAug 27 · 11:50M. Stetsenko45119311112S. Skhabitskiy50711118133
WAug 24 · 06:20M. Stetsenko47111195113S. Skhabitskiy4059111142
LAug 23 · 17:40M. Stetsenko311011551S. Skhabitskiy4112711113
LAug 20 · 05:50M. Stetsenko3511114362S. Skhabitskiy45481111113
WAug 19 · 15:00M. Stetsenko47951111113S. Skhabitskiy4811119982
WAug 17 · 06:20M. Stetsenko4415612113S. Skhabitskiy4213111081
WAug 16 · 17:30M. Stetsenko4011112163S. Skhabitskiy354611141
M. Stetsenko10
LSep 19 · 09:00M. Stetsenko3.257119101K. Klymenko1.3311511123WSep 19 · 07:30M. Stetsenko1.531212123V. Melnykov2.381010100WSep 19 · 06:00M. Stetsenko1.2511811113S. Semenets3.75711731LSep 19 · 04:30M. Stetsenko1.83116471O. Ovsiienko1.8391111113WSep 17 · 11:50S. Skhabitskiy1.8321111962M. Stetsenko1.83118811113WSep 17 · 10:50M. Stetsenko1.50611115113O. Mytsyk2.5011861192LSep 17 · 09:50M. Stetsenko1.838118111O. Ovsiienko1.8311211133LSep 17 · 08:20M. Stetsenko1.838990O. Lipeiko1.831111113LSep 17 · 06:20M. Stetsenko3.00381171A. Kovalenko1.3611117113WSep 14 · 12:50O. Mytsyk2.50961251M. Stetsenko1.50111110113
S. Skhabitskiy10
WSep 19 · 09:30S. Skhabitskiy2.0051111113V. Melnykov1.73117841LSep 19 · 08:30S. Skhabitskiy1.507870O. Ovsiienko2.501111113LSep 19 · 07:00S. Skhabitskiy1.57127821K. Klymenko2.25101111113WSep 19 · 05:00S. Skhabitskiy1.40911114133S. Semenets2.75114611112LSep 17 · 11:50S. Skhabitskiy1.8321111962M. Stetsenko1.83118811113LSep 17 · 10:20S. Skhabitskiy2.255660O. Lipeiko1.571111113LSep 17 · 08:50S. Skhabitskiy2.00117651O. Mytsyk1.7391111113LSep 17 · 07:20S. Skhabitskiy2.5012129782A. Kovalenko1.5010101111113WSep 17 · 05:50S. Skhabitskiy1.44111313113O. Ovsiienko2.633111571WSep 15 · 11:05O. Osadchyi1.4411681162S. Skhabitskiy2.63711117113
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