TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13155647
Played Sep 19Finished
Sergii Skhabitskiy
Home
1.40
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
9111141164111311
Serhii Semenets
Away
2.75
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:32 and never touched — 68.3% is still 68.3%
Graded at full timeSergii Skhabitskiy to win
68.3%
68.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSergii Skhabitskiy above · Serhii Semenets below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 4-11
Set 5 · 13-11
Point 91 set 5, 13-11 — our read held Sergii Skhabitskiy at 68.3%
91 points played in total.
H2H Sergii Skhabitskiy 4–1 Serhii Semenets Serhii Semenets has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:32What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Skhabitskiy
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-1 in 5
Skhabitskiy
Correct
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skhabitskiy 1373 vs Semenets 1293
Skhabitskiy
Correct
both rated, 80 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skhabitskiy 20% vs Semenets 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skhabitskiy 20% vs Semenets 50%
Semenets
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Skhabitskiy -4 · Semenets -2
Skhabitskiy
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Skhabitskiy)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Semenets form (20%) is below what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkhabitskiy 1.40 / Semenets 2.75
Signal prob.68% / 32%
Edge (Skhabitskiy)+2.0pp
Setka Cup · #13155647
Skhabitskiy1.40
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite55% won 97 of 176
Up 2–0, closes it98% 49 of 50
Up 1–0, closes it79% 73 of 92
Semenets2.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog35% won 44 of 125
Down 0–1, comes back21% 15 of 71
Down 0–2, comes back14% 6 of 44
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeSkhabitskiy4wins
AwaySemenets1wins
1 of 5 to a deciderSkhabitskiy leads 4–1, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkhabitskiy100%4 of 4
AwaySemenetsn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skhabitskiy4Semenets1n = 5Skhabitskiy took 4 of 5
S2Skhabitskiy3Semenets2n = 5Skhabitskiy took 3 of 5
S3Skhabitskiy2Semenets3n = 5Semenets took 3 of 5
S4Skhabitskiy3Semenets2n = 5Skhabitskiy took 3 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home360%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricSkhabitskiySemenetsSkhabitskiy − SemenetsBasisWins41+3in 5 meetingsFirst set41+3of 5Avg pointsper match42.634.2+8.4per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkhabitskiySemenetsBasisWin rate · lifetime472 / 1066 vs 416 / 82844.3%50.2%472 / 1066 vs 416 / 828Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.937.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkhabitskiySkhabitskiy 1.40/Semenets 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
68.3%
Skhabitskiy · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Skhabitskiy won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WFeb 26 · 11:20S. Skhabitskiy4314117113S. Semenets311231151
WNov 11 · 07:00S. Skhabitskiy4111118113S. Semenets29771141
WApr 23 · 19:50S. Skhabitskiy4212811113S. Semenets321011651
WApr 14 · 07:50S. Skhabitskiy53149118113S. Semenets43121131162
LApr 9 · 11:30S. Skhabitskiy34811781S. Semenets3611311113
S. Skhabitskiy10
LSep 17 · 11:50S. Skhabitskiy1.8321111962M. Stetsenko1.83118811113LSep 17 · 10:20S. Skhabitskiy2.255660O. Lipeiko1.571111113LSep 17 · 08:50S. Skhabitskiy2.00117651O. Mytsyk1.7391111113LSep 17 · 07:20S. Skhabitskiy2.5012129782A. Kovalenko1.5010101111113WSep 17 · 05:50S. Skhabitskiy1.44111313113O. Ovsiienko2.633111571WSep 15 · 11:05O. Osadchyi1.4411681162S. Skhabitskiy2.63711117113LSep 15 · 10:05S. Skhabitskiy2.75371161A. Martyniuk1.4011119113LSep 15 · 09:05S. Skhabitskiy2.5011128692E. Populovskyi1.503101111113LSep 15 · 07:35S. Skhabitskiy2.25115961A. Kovalenko1.5771111113LSep 15 · 05:35S. Skhabitskiy2.63611111162A. Kurtenko1.44111374113
S. Semenets10
LSep 19 · 06:00M. Stetsenko1.2511811113S. Semenets3.75711731LSep 18 · 12:05O. Mytsyk1.441111113S. Semenets2.638780LSep 18 · 10:35S. Semenets2.509920V. Korniichuk1.501111113WSep 18 · 08:35V. Stukalov1.9112118642S. Semenets1.801061111113LSep 18 · 06:35V. Mukhin1.50611116113S. Semenets2.5011661192LSep 18 · 05:35K. Klymenko1.5771111123S. Semenets2.251188101WSep 16 · 12:50S. Semenets1.61911113113S. Hovorunets2.2011591152WSep 16 · 10:50V. Stukalov1.83117761S. Semenets1.8331111113WSep 16 · 08:50Y. Korotin1.7388131192S. Semenets2.001111118113LSep 16 · 07:50S. Semenets2.001181041D. Khavanskyi1.7391112113
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