TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13131040
Played Sep 15Finished
Sergii Skhabitskiy
Home
2.75
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
311711119611––
Andrii Martyniuk
Away
1.40
At publish
Won last 6Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:38 and never touched — 67.5% is still 67.5%
Graded at full timeAndrii Martyniuk to win
67.5%
67.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSergii Skhabitskiy above · Andrii Martyniuk below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 69 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Andrii Martyniuk at 67.5%
69 points played in total.
H2H Sergii Skhabitskiy 10–16 Andrii Martyniuk Sergii Skhabitskiy has won 10 of their 26 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:38What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Martyniuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-16 in 26
Martyniuk
Correct
gap of 6 in 26, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skhabitskiy 1413 vs Martyniuk 1532
Martyniuk
Correct
both rated, 118 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skhabitskiy 20% vs Martyniuk 100%
Martyniuk
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skhabitskiy 40% vs Martyniuk 80%
Martyniuk
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Skhabitskiy -4 · Martyniuk +5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% — Clear lean (leans Martyniuk) · live re-read · sealed at 68% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Martyniuk form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkhabitskiy 2.75 / Martyniuk 1.40
Signal prob.31% / 70%
Edge (Martyniuk)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13131040
Skhabitskiy2.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog40% won 93 of 232
Down 0–1, comes back21% 24 of 115
Down 0–2, comes back7% 5 of 71
Martyniuk1.40
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 6
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite60% won 56 of 93
Up 2–0, closes it95% 35 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it70% 41 of 59
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSkhabitskiy5wins
AwayMartyniuk5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkhabitskiy66.7%4 of 6
AwayMartyniuk75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skhabitskiy6Martyniuk4n = 10Skhabitskiy took 6 of 10
S2Skhabitskiy5Martyniuk5n = 10split evenly
S3Skhabitskiy4Martyniuk6n = 10Martyniuk took 6 of 10
S4Skhabitskiy2Martyniuk5n = 7Martyniuk took 5 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSkhabitskiyMartyniukS − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match35.238.5−3.3per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkhabitskiyMartyniukBasisWin rate · lifetime476 / 1073 vs 172 / 32844.4%52.4%476 / 1073 vs 172 / 328Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.838.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MartyniukSkhabitskiy 2.75/Martyniuk 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
69.5%
Martyniuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Martyniuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJun 23 · 21:40S. Skhabitskiy154470A. Martyniuk331111113
WJun 21 · 17:20S. Skhabitskiy4151114113A. Martyniuk361141291
LMar 8 · 12:20S. Skhabitskiy24411721A. Martyniuk4211911113
LFeb 24 · 07:00S. Skhabitskiy301151041A. Martyniuk4281112113
LFeb 21 · 17:50S. Skhabitskiy35128781A. Martyniuk43101111113
WFeb 14 · 17:50S. Skhabitskiy49111197113A. Martyniuk3766111132
WFeb 3 · 10:00S. Skhabitskiy351113113A. Martyniuk2991190
WJan 27 · 09:00S. Skhabitskiy591612911113A. Martyniuk52141411672
WJan 19 · 09:05S. Skhabitskiy391213143A. Martyniuk331011120
LDec 14 · 13:20S. Skhabitskiy25261161A. Martyniuk3811115113
S. Skhabitskiy10
WSep 15 · 11:05O. Osadchyi1.4411681162S. Skhabitskiy2.63711117113LSep 15 · 09:05S. Skhabitskiy2.5011128692E. Populovskyi1.503101111113LSep 15 · 07:35S. Skhabitskiy2.25115961A. Kovalenko1.5771111113LSep 15 · 05:35S. Skhabitskiy2.63611111162A. Kurtenko1.44111374113LSep 14 · 12:20S. Skhabitskiy1.366930O. Ovsiienko3.001111113WSep 14 · 10:20V. Mukhin4.50911881S. Skhabitskiy1.1711711113LSep 14 · 09:20S. Skhabitskiy1.83111141052M. Stetsenko1.83891112113WSep 14 · 08:20K. Klymenko2.105990S. Skhabitskiy1.671111113WSep 14 · 06:50S. Skhabitskiy2.2071111113O. Mytsyk1.61119961WAug 31 · 11:05V. Kolesnykov1.57107111142S. Skhabitskiy2.25121188113
A. Martyniuk10
WSep 15 · 08:05O. Osadchyi4.001011651A. Martyniuk1.2212611113WSep 15 · 07:05A. Martyniuk1.4411119113E. Populovskyi2.63991171WSep 15 · 06:05A. Kovalenko2.634880A. Martyniuk1.441111113WSep 13 · 11:50O. Osadchyi3.756990A. Martyniuk1.251111113WSep 13 · 10:50A. Martyniuk1.33111179123A. Kurtenko3.25581111102WSep 13 · 09:50A. Martyniuk1.83911117123S. Solomko1.83119511102LSep 13 · 08:20A. Martyniuk1.611110551O. Tymofeev2.2041211113LSep 13 · 06:20A. Martyniuk1.40114861E. Populovskyi2.7561111113WSep 10 · 12:50A. Martyniuk1.611111113M. Stetsenko2.208850WSep 10 · 10:50K. Klymenko3.2511911772A. Martyniuk1.33611511113
Upcoming Matches
S. Skhabitskiy
Nothing scheduled
A. Martyniuk
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