TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13131015
Played Sep 15Finished
Oleksandr Osadchyi
Home
1.44
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
117611811117611
Sergii Skhabitskiy
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:29 and never touched — 66.1% is still 66.1%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Osadchyi to win
66.1%
66.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOleksandr Osadchyi above · Sergii Skhabitskiy below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 89 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Oleksandr Osadchyi at 66.1%
89 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Osadchyi 14–11 Sergii Skhabitskiy Sergii Skhabitskiy has won 11 of their 25 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:29What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Osadchyi
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-11 in 25
Osadchyi
Wrong
gap of 3 in 25, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Osadchyi 1515 vs Skhabitskiy 1405
Osadchyi
Wrong
both rated, 110 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Osadchyi 60% vs Skhabitskiy 0%
Osadchyi
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Osadchyi 50% vs Skhabitskiy 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Osadchyi +1 · Skhabitskiy -5
Skhabitskiy
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Osadchyi) · live re-read · sealed at 66% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skhabitskiy form (0%) is below what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOsadchyi 1.44 / Skhabitskiy 2.63
Signal prob.68% / 32%
Edge (Osadchyi)+3.6pp
Setka Cup · #13131015
Osadchyi1.44
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite70% won 103 of 147
Up 2–0, closes it96% 53 of 55
Up 1–0, closes it83% 73 of 88
Skhabitskiy2.63
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog40% won 93 of 232
Down 0–1, comes back21% 24 of 115
Down 0–2, comes back7% 5 of 71
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOsadchyi8wins
AwaySkhabitskiy2wins
1 of 10 to a deciderOsadchyi leads 8–2, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOsadchyi100%4 of 4
AwaySkhabitskiy33.3%2 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Osadchyi4Skhabitskiy6n = 10Skhabitskiy took 6 of 10
S2Osadchyi6Skhabitskiy4n = 10Osadchyi took 6 of 10
S3Osadchyi9Skhabitskiy1n = 10Osadchyi took 9 of 10
S4Osadchyi5Skhabitskiy1n = 6Osadchyi took 5 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricOsadchyiSkhabitskiyO − SBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match35.931.7+4.2per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOsadchyiSkhabitskiyBasisWin rate · lifetime441 / 859 vs 476 / 107451.3%44.3%441 / 859 vs 476 / 1074Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.336.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OsadchyiOsadchyi 1.44/Skhabitskiy 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
68.1%
Osadchyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Skhabitskiy won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 12 · 12:00O. Osadchyi3961111113S. Skhabitskiy26114831
WJul 9 · 10:20O. Osadchyi551191311113S. Skhabitskiy49131111682
WJun 14 · 16:20O. Osadchyi331111113S. Skhabitskiy178450
WJun 10 · 14:50O. Osadchyi4351611113S. Skhabitskiy421114981
WJun 7 · 20:20O. Osadchyi3841112113S. Skhabitskiy371171091
WJun 4 · 10:20O. Osadchyi331111113S. Skhabitskiy239680
WJun 3 · 17:50O. Osadchyi3811511113S. Skhabitskiy34811871
WJun 1 · 10:50O. Osadchyi331111113S. Skhabitskiy169430
LMay 24 · 18:50O. Osadchyi185580S. Skhabitskiy331111113
LMay 20 · 14:50O. Osadchyi29651171S. Skhabitskiy4011117113
O. Osadchyi10
WSep 15 · 09:35O. Osadchyi1.531112113A. Kovalenko2.3891080LSep 15 · 08:05O. Osadchyi4.001011651A. Martyniuk1.2212611113WSep 15 · 06:35O. Osadchyi1.731112113A. Kurtenko2.0061090WSep 15 · 05:05O. Osadchyi1.401111113E. Populovskyi2.759870LSep 13 · 11:50O. Osadchyi3.756990A. Martyniuk1.251111113LSep 13 · 10:20O. Osadchyi1.67115591O. Tymofeev2.1091111113LSep 13 · 08:50O. Osadchyi1.61114671A. Kurtenko2.2061111113LSep 13 · 07:20O. Osadchyi1.33107111152E. Populovskyi3.25121134113WSep 13 · 05:50O. Osadchyi2.1011711113S. Solomko1.67511881WSep 10 · 12:05V. Vietrov1.676430O. Osadchyi2.101111113
S. Skhabitskiy10
LSep 15 · 10:05S. Skhabitskiy2.75371161A. Martyniuk1.4011119113LSep 15 · 09:05S. Skhabitskiy2.5011128692E. Populovskyi1.503101111113LSep 15 · 07:35S. Skhabitskiy2.25115961A. Kovalenko1.5771111113LSep 15 · 05:35S. Skhabitskiy2.63611111162A. Kurtenko1.44111374113LSep 14 · 12:20S. Skhabitskiy1.366930O. Ovsiienko3.001111113WSep 14 · 10:20V. Mukhin4.50911881S. Skhabitskiy1.1711711113LSep 14 · 09:20S. Skhabitskiy1.83111141052M. Stetsenko1.83891112113WSep 14 · 08:20K. Klymenko2.105990S. Skhabitskiy1.671111113WSep 14 · 06:50S. Skhabitskiy2.2071111113O. Mytsyk1.61119961WAug 31 · 11:05V. Kolesnykov1.57107111142S. Skhabitskiy2.25121188113
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