TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13142096
Played Sep 17Finished
Sergii Skhabitskiy
Home
1.44
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
11313111315117––
Oleksandr Ovsiienko
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:37 and never touched — 57.4% is still 57.4%
Graded at full timeSergii Skhabitskiy to win
57.4%
57.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSergii Skhabitskiy above · Oleksandr Ovsiienko below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 13-15
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 84 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Sergii Skhabitskiy at 57.4%
84 points played in total.
H2H Sergii Skhabitskiy 15–5 Oleksandr Ovsiienko Oleksandr Ovsiienko has won 5 of their 20 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:37What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Skhabitskiy
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-5 in 20
Skhabitskiy
Correct
gap of 10 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skhabitskiy 1419 vs Ovsiienko 1370
Skhabitskiy
Correct
both rated, 49 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skhabitskiy 20% vs Ovsiienko 0%
Skhabitskiy
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skhabitskiy 40% vs Ovsiienko 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Skhabitskiy +1 · Ovsiienko -5
Ovsiienko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Skhabitskiy) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ovsiienko form (0%) is below what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkhabitskiy 1.44 / Ovsiienko 2.63
Signal prob.66% / 34%
Edge (Skhabitskiy)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13142096
Skhabitskiy1.44
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite55% won 97 of 178
Up 2–0, closes it96% 49 of 51
Up 1–0, closes it79% 73 of 93
Ovsiienko2.63
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog37% won 75 of 201
Down 0–1, comes back17% 18 of 108
Down 0–2, comes back7% 5 of 71
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSkhabitskiy6wins
AwayOvsiienko4wins
Skhabitskiy leads 6–4.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkhabitskiy100%4 of 4
AwayOvsiienko66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skhabitskiy4Ovsiienko6n = 10Ovsiienko took 6 of 10
S2Skhabitskiy8Ovsiienko2n = 10Skhabitskiy took 8 of 10
S3Skhabitskiy6Ovsiienko4n = 10Skhabitskiy took 6 of 10
S4Skhabitskiy2Ovsiienko2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricSkhabitskiyOvsiienkoS − OBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match31.928.8+3.1per matchSweeps42+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkhabitskiyOvsiienkoBasisWin rate · lifetime476 / 1073 vs 449 / 86644.4%51.9%476 / 1073 vs 449 / 866Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.836.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkhabitskiySkhabitskiy 1.44/Ovsiienko 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.1%
Skhabitskiy · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Skhabitskiy won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 14 · 12:20S. Skhabitskiy186930O. Ovsiienko331111113
WAug 30 · 14:00S. Skhabitskiy331111113O. Ovsiienko213990
WAug 24 · 09:50S. Skhabitskiy331111113O. Ovsiienko218760
LAug 23 · 12:40S. Skhabitskiy314111151O. Ovsiienko3911413113
WAug 21 · 05:05S. Skhabitskiy351311113O. Ovsiienko2611960
WAug 20 · 08:50S. Skhabitskiy331111113O. Ovsiienko113620
LAug 19 · 13:30S. Skhabitskiy177820O. Ovsiienko331111113
WAug 17 · 11:20S. Skhabitskiy4371312113O. Ovsiienko3511111031
WAug 16 · 15:30S. Skhabitskiy3941113113O. Ovsiienko291161111
LAug 12 · 05:05S. Skhabitskiy371111871O. Ovsiienko4013511113
S. Skhabitskiy10
WSep 15 · 11:05O. Osadchyi1.4411681162S. Skhabitskiy2.63711117113LSep 15 · 10:05S. Skhabitskiy2.75371161A. Martyniuk1.4011119113LSep 15 · 09:05S. Skhabitskiy2.5011128692E. Populovskyi1.503101111113LSep 15 · 07:35S. Skhabitskiy2.25115961A. Kovalenko1.5771111113LSep 15 · 05:35S. Skhabitskiy2.63611111162A. Kurtenko1.44111374113LSep 14 · 12:20S. Skhabitskiy1.366930O. Ovsiienko3.001111113WSep 14 · 10:20V. Mukhin4.50911881S. Skhabitskiy1.1711711113LSep 14 · 09:20S. Skhabitskiy1.83111141052M. Stetsenko1.83891112113WSep 14 · 08:20K. Klymenko2.105990S. Skhabitskiy1.671111113WSep 14 · 06:50S. Skhabitskiy2.2071111113O. Mytsyk1.61119961
O. Ovsiienko10
LSep 16 · 19:00O. Tymofeev1.911111113O. Ovsiienko1.807580LSep 16 · 17:30O. Ovsiienko1.838750A. Kurtenko1.831111113LSep 16 · 15:30B. Zaika1.281111113O. Ovsiienko3.507780LSep 16 · 13:30F. Voinarovskyi1.531111113O. Ovsiienko2.385570LSep 16 · 12:30V. Smyk1.44117914113O. Ovsiienko2.63911111252WSep 14 · 12:20S. Skhabitskiy1.366930O. Ovsiienko3.001111113WSep 14 · 11:20M. Stetsenko1.735830O. Ovsiienko2.001111113WSep 14 · 09:50K. Klymenko2.6351060O. Ovsiienko1.441112113WSep 14 · 07:50O. Mytsyk1.831011861O. Ovsiienko1.8312611113LSep 13 · 18:30S. Baranskyi1.731111113O. Ovsiienko2.004980
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