TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13136489
Played Sep 16Finished
Vasiliy Smyk
Home
1.44
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1197119111412115
Oleksandr Ovsiienko
Away
2.63
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:38 and never touched — 66.1% is still 66.1%
Graded at full timeVasiliy Smyk to win
66.1%
66.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVasiliy Smyk above · Oleksandr Ovsiienko below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 14-12
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 100 set 5, 11-5 — our read held Vasiliy Smyk at 66.1%
100 points played in total.
H2H Vasiliy Smyk 6–2 Oleksandr Ovsiienko Oleksandr Ovsiienko has won 2 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:38What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Smyk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-2 in 8
Smyk
Correct
gap of 4 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Smyk 1362 vs Ovsiienko 1426
Ovsiienko
Wrong
both rated, 64 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Smyk 20% vs Ovsiienko 80%
Ovsiienko
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Smyk 20% vs Ovsiienko 70%
Ovsiienko
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Smyk -3 · Ovsiienko +4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Smyk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ovsiienko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSmyk 1.44 / Ovsiienko 2.63
Signal prob.66% / 34%
Edge (Smyk)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13136489
Smyk1.44
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 30 of 52
Up 2–0, closes it100% 14 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it76% 19 of 25
Ovsiienko2.63
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog38% won 75 of 198
Down 0–1, comes back17% 18 of 105
Down 0–2, comes back7% 5 of 69
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeSmyk6wins
AwayOvsiienko2wins
1 of 8 to a deciderSmyk leads 6–2, and 1 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSmykn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayOvsiienko33.3%2 of 6
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Smyk2Ovsiienko6n = 8Ovsiienko took 6 of 8
S2Smyk6Ovsiienko2n = 8Smyk took 6 of 8
S3Smyk6Ovsiienko2n = 8Smyk took 6 of 8
S4Smyk4Ovsiienko1n = 5Smyk took 4 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home225%
3–1Four sets, home338%
3–2Decider, home113%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away113%
0–3Straight, away113%
These 8 meetings
MetricSmykOvsiienkoS − OBasisWins62+4in 8 meetingsFirst set26−4of 8Avg pointsper match36.231.0+5.2per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSmykOvsiienkoBasisWin rate · lifetime274 / 651 vs 452 / 86642.1%52.2%274 / 651 vs 452 / 866Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.636.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SmykSmyk 1.44/Ovsiienko 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.1%
Smyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Smyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WSep 9 · 14:30V. Smyk351113113O. Ovsiienko2991190
WSep 6 · 13:30V. Smyk367111173O. Ovsiienko25116621
LSep 2 · 16:00V. Smyk36911791O. Ovsiienko4111811113
WAug 19 · 12:30V. Smyk45391111113O. Ovsiienko3511116522
WAug 16 · 14:30V. Smyk331111113O. Ovsiienko208660
WAug 9 · 16:00V. Smyk46101411113O. Ovsiienko341212551
WJul 20 · 10:20V. Smyk4071111113O. Ovsiienko30118381
LJul 19 · 18:30V. Smyk1961030O. Ovsiienko341112113
V. Smyk10
LSep 12 · 18:00A. Kurtenko1.8314102V. Smyk1.831290LSep 12 · 17:00V. Smyk2.5087100O. Tymofeev1.501111123LSep 12 · 16:00V. Smyk2.3810570S. Solomko1.531211113WSep 12 · 14:30V. Smyk2.2511311343O. Leonenko1.5791161112LSep 12 · 12:30V. Smyk1.911111119102E. Populovskyi1.80138811123LSep 11 · 18:00A. Kovalenko2.0031111113V. Smyk1.73119991LSep 11 · 17:00V. Smyk2.50111231082O. Tymofeev1.509101112113LSep 11 · 16:00V. Smyk1.917750E. Populovskyi1.801111113WSep 11 · 14:30V. Smyk2.381181133O. Leonenko1.53611801LSep 11 · 12:30V. Smyk2.5012831172S. Solomko1.501011117113
O. Ovsiienko10
LSep 16 · 13:30F. Voinarovskyi1.531111113O. Ovsiienko2.385570WSep 14 · 12:20S. Skhabitskiy1.366930O. Ovsiienko3.001111113WSep 14 · 11:20M. Stetsenko1.735830O. Ovsiienko2.001111113WSep 14 · 09:50K. Klymenko2.6351060O. Ovsiienko1.441112113WSep 14 · 07:50O. Mytsyk1.831011861O. Ovsiienko1.8312611113LSep 13 · 18:30S. Baranskyi1.731111113O. Ovsiienko2.004980LSep 13 · 17:30M. Stetsenko1.80101511113O. Ovsiienko1.911213661LSep 13 · 16:00O. Mytsyk2.001211133O. Ovsiienko1.73102110WSep 13 · 14:00V. Melnykov2.63981181O. Ovsiienko1.4411117113WSep 13 · 12:00A. Dekhtiarenko2.2581113121O. Ovsiienko1.57111311133
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