TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13122255
Played Sep 13Finished
Volodymyr Melnykov
Home
2.63
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
911811117811––
Oleksandr Ovsiienko
Away
1.44
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:13 and never touched — 65.7% is still 65.7%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Ovsiienko to win
65.7%
65.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVolodymyr Melnykov above · Oleksandr Ovsiienko below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 76 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Oleksandr Ovsiienko at 65.7%
76 points played in total.
H2H Volodymyr Melnykov 2–3 Oleksandr Ovsiienko Volodymyr Melnykov has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:13What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Ovsiienko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-3 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Melnykov 1339 vs Ovsiienko 1418
Ovsiienko
Correct
both rated, 79 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Melnykov 60% vs Ovsiienko 80%
Ovsiienko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Melnykov 50% vs Ovsiienko 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Melnykov -1 · Ovsiienko +4
Ovsiienko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Ovsiienko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ovsiienko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMelnykov 2.63 / Ovsiienko 1.44
Signal prob.34% / 66%
Edge (Ovsiienko)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13122255
Melnykov2.63
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog36% won 52 of 143
Down 0–1, comes back21% 19 of 89
Down 0–2, comes back11% 6 of 54
Ovsiienko1.44
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite67% won 133 of 198
Up 2–0, closes it98% 85 of 87
Up 1–0, closes it85% 108 of 127
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeMelnykov2wins
AwayOvsiienko3wins
2 of 5 to a deciderOvsiienko leads 3–2, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMelnykovn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayOvsiienko75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Melnykov1Ovsiienko4n = 5Ovsiienko took 4 of 5
S2Melnykov1Ovsiienko4n = 5Ovsiienko took 4 of 5
S3Melnykov1Ovsiienko4n = 5Ovsiienko took 4 of 5
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home240%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away360%
These 5 meetings
MetricMelnykovOvsiienkoM − OBasisWins23−1in 5 meetingsFirst set14−3of 5Avg pointsper match30.838.6−7.8per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMelnykovOvsiienkoBasisWin rate · lifetime246 / 532 vs 447 / 85846.2%52.1%246 / 532 vs 447 / 858Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.136.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OvsiienkoMelnykov 2.63/Ovsiienko 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.7%
Ovsiienko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Ovsiienko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LAug 27 · 11:30V. Melnykov246990O. Ovsiienko331111113
LAug 26 · 12:30V. Melnykov91440O. Ovsiienko331111113
LAug 24 · 07:50V. Melnykov198290O. Ovsiienko331111113
WJul 19 · 12:00V. Melnykov51911911113O. Ovsiienko4311511792
WJul 5 · 18:30V. Melnykov51119146113O. Ovsiienko51911121182
V. Melnykov10
LSep 13 · 13:00S. Baranskyi2.001111113V. Melnykov1.736750WSep 7 · 12:50V. Melnykov1.401116113S. Semenets2.7551450WSep 7 · 10:50V. Stukalov3.40117791V. Melnykov1.3081111113WSep 7 · 08:50V. Korniichuk2.1081050V. Melnykov1.671112113LSep 7 · 07:50V. Melnykov1.83116651M. Stetsenko1.8341111113LSep 7 · 06:50O. Mytsyk1.67212713123V. Melnykov2.1011101111102LSep 4 · 11:35V. Melnykov1.914660E. Populovskyi1.801111113WSep 4 · 09:35M. Stetsenko1.73611831V. Melnykov2.0011311113LSep 4 · 08:35V. Melnykov2.25111410482O. Mytsyk1.579121211113WSep 4 · 07:35K. Klymenko3.2581311472V. Melnykov1.331111811113
O. Ovsiienko10
WSep 13 · 12:00A. Dekhtiarenko2.2581113121O. Ovsiienko1.57111311133WSep 10 · 12:20O. Leonenko1.5011711752O. Ovsiienko2.50911711113WSep 10 · 11:20M. Stetsenko1.73116571O. Ovsiienko2.0081111113WSep 10 · 09:50K. Klymenko2.386810O. Ovsiienko1.531111113LSep 10 · 07:50A. Martyniuk1.73771111113O. Ovsiienko2.0011114162LSep 10 · 05:50F. Voinarovskyi1.531111122123O. Ovsiienko2.38251411102WSep 9 · 18:30O. Ovsiienko2.63641114133F. Voinarovskyi1.441111612112LSep 9 · 16:30M. Stetsenko1.73511118113O. Ovsiienko2.0011661152LSep 9 · 15:30O. Ovsiienko2.255760A. Kovalenko1.571111113LSep 9 · 14:30V. Smyk1.531113113O. Ovsiienko2.3891190
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