TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13141990
Played Sep 17Finished
Sergii Skhabitskiy
Home
2.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
12101210911711811
Anatolii Kovalenko
Away
1.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:14 and never touched — 64.1% is still 64.1%
Graded at full timeAnatolii Kovalenko to win
64.1%
64.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSergii Skhabitskiy above · Anatolii Kovalenko below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 101 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Anatolii Kovalenko at 64.1%
101 points played in total.
H2H Sergii Skhabitskiy 7–19 Anatolii Kovalenko Sergii Skhabitskiy has won 7 of their 26 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:14What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Kovalenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-19 in 26
Kovalenko
Correct
gap of 12 in 26, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skhabitskiy 1418 vs Kovalenko 1419
Kovalenko
Correct
both rated, 1 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skhabitskiy 40% vs Kovalenko 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skhabitskiy 40% vs Kovalenko 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Skhabitskiy +2 · Kovalenko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Kovalenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kovalenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkhabitskiy 2.50 / Kovalenko 1.50
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Kovalenko)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13141990
Skhabitskiy2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog40% won 93 of 233
Down 0–1, comes back21% 24 of 115
Down 0–2, comes back7% 5 of 71
Kovalenko1.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As favourite52% won 74 of 142
Up 2–0, closes it94% 32 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it69% 50 of 73
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSkhabitskiy3wins
AwayKovalenko7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKovalenko leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkhabitskiy40%2 of 5
AwayKovalenko80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skhabitskiy5Kovalenko5n = 10split evenly
S2Skhabitskiy4Kovalenko6n = 10Kovalenko took 6 of 10
S3Skhabitskiy4Kovalenko6n = 10Kovalenko took 6 of 10
S4Skhabitskiy5Kovalenko2n = 7Skhabitskiy took 5 of 7
S5Skhabitskiy0Kovalenko4n = 4Kovalenko took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricSkhabitskiyKovalenkoS − KBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match35.137.6−2.5per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkhabitskiyKovalenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime476 / 1072 vs 280 / 52844.4%53%476 / 1072 vs 280 / 528Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.837.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KovalenkoSkhabitskiy 2.50/Kovalenko 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.1%
Kovalenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kovalenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 17 · 07:20S. Skhabitskiy4812129782A. Kovalenko5310101111113
LSep 15 · 07:35S. Skhabitskiy31115961A. Kovalenko4071111113
WAug 31 · 07:35S. Skhabitskiy3711411113A. Kovalenko28511391
LAug 10 · 08:20S. Skhabitskiy2510780A. Kovalenko341211113
LAug 7 · 08:30S. Skhabitskiy144550A. Kovalenko331111113
WAug 6 · 11:50S. Skhabitskiy3961111113A. Kovalenko29114951
WJul 31 · 11:30S. Skhabitskiy331111113A. Kovalenko157440
LJul 26 · 13:30S. Skhabitskiy4011561262A. Kovalenko46711111073
LJul 23 · 10:20S. Skhabitskiy4569111272A. Kovalenko501111710113
LJul 13 · 10:20S. Skhabitskiy3991141142A. Kovalenko48118117113
S. Skhabitskiy10
LSep 17 · 08:50S. Skhabitskiy2.00117651O. Mytsyk1.7391111113WSep 17 · 05:50S. Skhabitskiy1.44111313113O. Ovsiienko2.633111571WSep 15 · 11:05O. Osadchyi1.4411681162S. Skhabitskiy2.63711117113LSep 15 · 10:05S. Skhabitskiy2.75371161A. Martyniuk1.4011119113LSep 15 · 09:05S. Skhabitskiy2.5011128692E. Populovskyi1.503101111113LSep 15 · 07:35S. Skhabitskiy2.25115961A. Kovalenko1.5771111113LSep 15 · 05:35S. Skhabitskiy2.63611111162A. Kurtenko1.44111374113LSep 14 · 12:20S. Skhabitskiy1.366930O. Ovsiienko3.001111113WSep 14 · 10:20V. Mukhin4.50911881S. Skhabitskiy1.1711711113LSep 14 · 09:20S. Skhabitskiy1.83111141052M. Stetsenko1.83891112113
A. Kovalenko10
WSep 17 · 06:20M. Stetsenko3.00381171A. Kovalenko1.3611117113LSep 15 · 11:35A. Kovalenko1.831011881E. Populovskyi1.8312911113LSep 15 · 09:35O. Osadchyi1.531112113A. Kovalenko2.3891080LSep 15 · 08:35A. Kovalenko1.83711921A. Kurtenko1.8311711113WSep 15 · 07:35S. Skhabitskiy2.25115961A. Kovalenko1.5771111113LSep 15 · 06:05A. Kovalenko2.634880A. Martyniuk1.441111113WSep 11 · 18:00A. Kovalenko2.0031111113V. Smyk1.73119991WSep 11 · 16:30A. Kovalenko2.20911119143O. Leonenko1.61116911122LSep 11 · 15:00A. Kovalenko2.635911101O. Tymofeev1.4411119123LSep 11 · 13:30A. Kovalenko2.106680S. Solomko1.671111113
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