TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 21Finished
Dmytro Ponomarenko
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1161111012811––
Oleksandr Ovsiienko
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:40 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Ovsiienko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDmytro Ponomarenko above · Oleksandr Ovsiienko below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 1-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 70 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Oleksandr Ovsiienko at 54.0%
70 points played in total.
H2H Dmytro Ponomarenko 0–1 Oleksandr Ovsiienko Dmytro Ponomarenko has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 18:40What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Ovsiienko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Ponomarenko 1354 vs Ovsiienko 1423
Ovsiienko
Correct
both rated, 68 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ponomarenko 20% vs Ovsiienko 80%
Ovsiienko
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ponomarenko 30% vs Ovsiienko 80%
Ovsiienko
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ponomarenko -4 · Ovsiienko -1
Ponomarenko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Ovsiienko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ovsiienko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPonomarenko 2.00 / Ovsiienko 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Ovsiienko)+0.3pp
Setka Cup · #13166110
Ponomarenko2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog26% won 12 of 46
Down 0–1, comes back9% 3 of 33
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 24
Ovsiienko1.73
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite67% won 135 of 202
Up 2–0, closes it98% 89 of 91
Up 1–0, closes it85% 110 of 129
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomePonomarenko0wins
AwayOvsiienko1wins
1 of 1 to a deciderOvsiienko leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricPonomarenkoOvsiienkoP − OBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match51.048.0+3.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPonomarenkoOvsiienkoBasisWin rate · lifetime32 / 81 vs 452 / 87439.5%51.7%32 / 81 vs 452 / 874Avg sets wonper match1.72.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.236.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OvsiienkoPonomarenko 2.00/Ovsiienko 1.73
Hit
What we said
54%
Ovsiienko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Ovsiienko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LAug 2 · 19:00D. Ponomarenko51811118132O. Ovsiienko48115611153
D. Ponomarenko10
LSep 21 · 05:35D. Ponomarenko2.38101311492S. Skhabitskiy1.531211611113LSep 20 · 19:00D. Ponomarenko2.10111040O. Lipeiko1.671312113LSep 20 · 17:00S. Skhabitskiy1.731114113D. Ponomarenko2.0081250LSep 20 · 14:59V. Nechai1.83101111113D. Ponomarenko1.83126981WAug 26 · 09:55A. Didyk2.2564100D. Ponomarenko1.571111123WAug 26 · 08:55D. Ponomarenko1.671111113A. Didyk2.104760LAug 26 · 07:55D. Ponomarenko1.83611111072V. Kheresko1.83118812113LAug 26 · 06:25D. Ponomarenko1.578680R. Mazur2.251111113WAug 26 · 05:25D. Ponomarenko1.831111113D. Kozoriz1.836860LAug 25 · 18:55D. Ponomarenko1.91561131D. Kozoriz1.8011116113
O. Ovsiienko10
LSep 21 · 06:05O. Ovsiienko1.8071114822O. Mytsyk1.911191211113WSep 20 · 18:30V. Smyk1.50119491O. Ovsiienko2.5081111113WSep 20 · 17:30O. Lipeiko1.3011127982O. Ovsiienko3.409101111113WSep 20 · 16:00S. Skhabitskiy1.73441131O. Ovsiienko2.0011119113WSep 20 · 12:00V. Nechai2.0051070O. Ovsiienko1.731112113WSep 19 · 11:00K. Klymenko2.7571220O. Ovsiienko1.401114113WSep 19 · 10:00S. Semenets3.753740O. Ovsiienko1.251111113WSep 19 · 08:30S. Skhabitskiy1.507870O. Ovsiienko2.501111113LSep 19 · 06:30V. Melnykov3.0011115113O. Ovsiienko1.36871191WSep 19 · 04:30M. Stetsenko1.83116471O. Ovsiienko1.8391111113
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