TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 21Finished
Dmytro Ponomarenko
Home
2.38
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
10121311116411911
Sergii Skhabitskiy
Away
1.53
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:54 and never touched — 60.8% is still 60.8%
Graded at full timeSergii Skhabitskiy to win
60.8%
60.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDmytro Ponomarenko above · Sergii Skhabitskiy below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 4-11
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 98 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Sergii Skhabitskiy at 60.8%
98 points played in total.
H2H Dmytro Ponomarenko 0–2 Sergii Skhabitskiy Dmytro Ponomarenko has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 13h before this match
Skhabitskiy beat Ponomarenko 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:54What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Skhabitskiy
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-2 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Ponomarenko 1365 vs Skhabitskiy 1392
Skhabitskiy
Correct
both rated, 28 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ponomarenko 40% vs Skhabitskiy 80%
Skhabitskiy
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ponomarenko 40% vs Skhabitskiy 60%
Skhabitskiy
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ponomarenko -3 · Skhabitskiy +2
Ponomarenko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Skhabitskiy)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skhabitskiy form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPonomarenko 2.38 / Skhabitskiy 1.53
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Skhabitskiy)+0.0pp
Setka Cup · #13166313
Ponomarenko2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog26% won 12 of 46
Down 0–1, comes back9% 3 of 33
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 24
Skhabitskiy1.53
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite55% won 100 of 182
Up 2–0, closes it98% 51 of 52
Up 1–0, closes it79% 75 of 95
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomePonomarenko0wins
AwaySkhabitskiy2wins
Skhabitskiy leads 2–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away1
These 2 meetings
MetricPonomarenkoSkhabitskiyP − SBasisWins02−2in 2 meetingsFirst set02−2of 2Avg pointsper match33.040.0−7.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPonomarenkoSkhabitskiyBasisWin rate · lifetime32 / 80 vs 473 / 106640%44.4%32 / 80 vs 473 / 1066Avg sets wonper match1.71.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.136.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkhabitskiyPonomarenko 2.38/Skhabitskiy 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.8%
Skhabitskiy · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Skhabitskiy won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LSep 20 · 17:00D. Ponomarenko2581250S. Skhabitskiy361114113
LAug 3 · 08:20D. Ponomarenko4110911111S. Skhabitskiy4412118133
D. Ponomarenko10
LSep 20 · 19:00D. Ponomarenko2.10111040O. Lipeiko1.671312113LSep 20 · 17:00S. Skhabitskiy1.731114113D. Ponomarenko2.0081250LSep 20 · 14:59V. Nechai1.83101111113D. Ponomarenko1.83126981WAug 26 · 09:55A. Didyk2.2564100D. Ponomarenko1.571111123WAug 26 · 08:55D. Ponomarenko1.671111113A. Didyk2.104760LAug 26 · 07:55D. Ponomarenko1.83611111072V. Kheresko1.83118812113LAug 26 · 06:25D. Ponomarenko1.578680R. Mazur2.251111113WAug 26 · 05:25D. Ponomarenko1.831111113D. Kozoriz1.836860LAug 25 · 18:55D. Ponomarenko1.91561131D. Kozoriz1.8011116113WAug 25 · 16:55A. Didyk1.8311116852D. Ponomarenko1.83491111113
S. Skhabitskiy10
WSep 21 · 06:35V. Mukhin4.336780S. Skhabitskiy1.201111113WSep 20 · 18:00V. Nechai2.00741291S. Skhabitskiy1.73111110113WSep 20 · 17:00S. Skhabitskiy1.731114113D. Ponomarenko2.0081250LSep 20 · 16:00S. Skhabitskiy1.73441131O. Ovsiienko2.0011119113WSep 20 · 14:30S. Skhabitskiy2.0011511333V. Smyk1.7341191122WSep 20 · 12:30S. Skhabitskiy2.501211113O. Lipeiko1.5010890LSep 19 · 10:30M. Stetsenko1.801211113S. Skhabitskiy1.9110540WSep 19 · 09:30S. Skhabitskiy2.0051111113V. Melnykov1.73117841LSep 19 · 08:30S. Skhabitskiy1.507870O. Ovsiienko2.501111113LSep 19 · 07:00S. Skhabitskiy1.57127821K. Klymenko2.25101111113
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