TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Sergii Skhabitskiy
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
11451111931132
Vasiliy Smyk
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:24 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVasiliy Smyk to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingSergii Skhabitskiy above · Vasiliy Smyk below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 3-11
Set 5 · 3-2
Point 70 set 5, 3-2 — our read held Vasiliy Smyk at 54.0%
70 points played in total.
H2H Sergii Skhabitskiy 35–35 Vasiliy Smyk Dead even across their 70 meetings.
Last 10 · 4–6Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:24What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Smyk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
35-35 in 70
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skhabitskiy 1369 vs Smyk 1425
Smyk
Wrong
both rated, 56 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skhabitskiy 40% vs Smyk 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skhabitskiy 30% vs Smyk 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Skhabitskiy +1 · Smyk +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Smyk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Smyk form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkhabitskiy 2.00 / Smyk 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Smyk)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13161689
Skhabitskiy2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog40% won 91 of 229
Down 0–1, comes back21% 24 of 114
Down 0–2, comes back7% 5 of 70
Smyk1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 4 days ago (Sep 16)
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 30 of 52
Up 2–0, closes it100% 14 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it77% 20 of 26
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSkhabitskiy4wins
AwaySmyk6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderSmyk leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkhabitskiy40%2 of 5
AwaySmyk60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skhabitskiy5Smyk5n = 10split evenly
S2Skhabitskiy4Smyk6n = 10Smyk took 6 of 10
S3Skhabitskiy5Smyk5n = 10split evenly
S4Skhabitskiy3Smyk4n = 7Smyk took 4 of 7
S5Skhabitskiy2Smyk2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSkhabitskiySmykSkhabitskiy − SmykBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.340.9−1.6per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkhabitskiySmykBasisWin rate · lifetime471 / 1067 vs 270 / 64544.1%41.9%471 / 1067 vs 270 / 645Avg sets wonper match1.91.8per matchAvg pointsper match36.936.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SmykSkhabitskiy 2.00/Smyk 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.1%
Smyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Skhabitskiy won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LAug 19 · 18:00S. Skhabitskiy2696110V. Smyk351111133
LAug 9 · 17:00S. Skhabitskiy37691481V. Smyk45111112113
LJul 27 · 10:20S. Skhabitskiy48119101172V. Smyk49811127113
LJul 26 · 16:30S. Skhabitskiy4411127682V. Smyk474101111113
LJul 10 · 10:20S. Skhabitskiy361191241V. Smyk45131110113
WMay 23 · 17:20S. Skhabitskiy463111110113V. Smyk4511671292
WMay 18 · 10:50S. Skhabitskiy331111113V. Smyk228770
WMay 17 · 15:50S. Skhabitskiy4211712123V. Smyk3541110101
WMay 9 · 19:20S. Skhabitskiy42612211113V. Smyk45111011762
S. Skhabitskiy10
WSep 20 · 12:30S. Skhabitskiy2.501211113O. Lipeiko1.5010890LSep 19 · 10:30M. Stetsenko1.801211113S. Skhabitskiy1.9110540WSep 19 · 09:30S. Skhabitskiy2.0051111113V. Melnykov1.73117841LSep 19 · 08:30S. Skhabitskiy1.507870O. Ovsiienko2.501111113LSep 19 · 07:00S. Skhabitskiy1.57127821K. Klymenko2.25101111113WSep 19 · 05:00S. Skhabitskiy1.40911114133S. Semenets2.75114611112LSep 17 · 11:50S. Skhabitskiy1.8321111962M. Stetsenko1.83118811113LSep 17 · 10:20S. Skhabitskiy2.255660O. Lipeiko1.571111113LSep 17 · 08:50S. Skhabitskiy2.00117651O. Mytsyk1.7391111113LSep 17 · 07:20S. Skhabitskiy2.5012129782A. Kovalenko1.5010101111113
V. Smyk10
LSep 20 · 15:30V. Smyk2.10711781O. Lipeiko1.6711711113WSep 16 · 18:00F. Voinarovskyi1.831171061V. Smyk1.8371112113LSep 16 · 16:00V. Smyk1.91571191A. Kurtenko1.8011116113LSep 16 · 14:30V. Smyk3.50671171B. Zaika1.2811116113WSep 16 · 12:30V. Smyk1.44117914113O. Ovsiienko2.63911111252LSep 12 · 18:00A. Kurtenko1.8314102V. Smyk1.831290LSep 12 · 17:00V. Smyk2.5087100O. Tymofeev1.501111123LSep 12 · 16:00V. Smyk2.3810570S. Solomko1.531211113WSep 12 · 14:30V. Smyk2.2511311343O. Leonenko1.5791161112LSep 12 · 12:30V. Smyk1.911111119102E. Populovskyi1.80138811123
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