TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13136657
Played Sep 16Finished
Vasiliy Smyk
Home
3.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
611711116711––
Bohdan Zaika
Away
1.29
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:59 and never touched — 75.5% is still 75.5%
Graded at full timeBohdan Zaika to win
75.5%
75.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVasiliy Smyk above · Bohdan Zaika below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 70 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Bohdan Zaika at 75.5%
70 points played in total.
H2H Vasiliy Smyk 7–23 Bohdan Zaika Vasiliy Smyk has won 7 of their 30 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:59What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.28 (73%)
Zaika
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-23 in 30
Zaika
Correct
gap of 16 in 30, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Smyk 1375 vs Zaika 1474
Zaika
Correct
both rated, 99 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Smyk 40% vs Zaika 80%
Zaika
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Smyk 30% vs Zaika 70%
Zaika
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Smyk +1 · Zaika -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 78% — Strong (leans Zaika) · live re-read · sealed at 76% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Smyk form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSmyk 3.50 / Zaika 1.28
Signal prob.23% / 78%
Edge (Zaika)+4.4pp
Setka Cup · #13136657
Smyk3.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 88 of 224
Down 0–1, comes back20% 25 of 123
Down 0–2, comes back7% 5 of 70
Zaika1.28
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite60% won 66 of 110
Up 2–0, closes it97% 31 of 32
Up 1–0, closes it74% 50 of 68
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSmyk2wins
AwayZaika8wins
1 of 10 to a deciderZaika leads 8–2, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSmyk25%1 of 4
AwayZaika83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Smyk4Zaika6n = 10Zaika took 6 of 10
S2Smyk3Zaika7n = 10Zaika took 7 of 10
S3Smyk3Zaika7n = 10Zaika took 7 of 10
S4Smyk3Zaika5n = 8Zaika took 5 of 8
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricSmykZaikaS − ZBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match33.340.2−6.9per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSmykZaikaBasisWin rate · lifetime269 / 642 vs 276 / 55041.9%50.2%269 / 642 vs 276 / 550Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.738.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZaikaSmyk 3.50/Zaika 1.28
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
77.5%
Zaika · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Zaika won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 6 · 18:00V. Smyk209470B. Zaika331111113
WSep 2 · 14:30V. Smyk4311137123B. Zaika3751111101
WJun 23 · 11:40V. Smyk3961111113B. Zaika33117691
LJun 2 · 11:40V. Smyk331151071B. Zaika4171112113
LMay 10 · 08:20V. Smyk31119561B. Zaika3851111113
LMay 9 · 17:20V. Smyk24411361B. Zaika4011711113
LApr 26 · 10:50V. Smyk429811141B. Zaika4711119163
LApr 25 · 17:20V. Smyk361151461B. Zaika4791116113
LApr 19 · 10:50V. Smyk45104111462B. Zaika531211712113
LApr 18 · 17:20V. Smyk206590B. Zaika331111113
V. Smyk10
WSep 16 · 12:30V. Smyk1.44117914113O. Ovsiienko2.63911111252LSep 12 · 18:00A. Kurtenko1.8314102V. Smyk1.831290LSep 12 · 17:00V. Smyk2.5087100O. Tymofeev1.501111123LSep 12 · 16:00V. Smyk2.3810570S. Solomko1.531211113WSep 12 · 14:30V. Smyk2.2511311343O. Leonenko1.5791161112LSep 12 · 12:30V. Smyk1.911111119102E. Populovskyi1.80138811123LSep 11 · 18:00A. Kovalenko2.0031111113V. Smyk1.73119991LSep 11 · 17:00V. Smyk2.50111231082O. Tymofeev1.509101112113LSep 11 · 16:00V. Smyk1.917750E. Populovskyi1.801111113WSep 11 · 14:30V. Smyk2.381181133O. Leonenko1.53611801
B. Zaika10
WSep 16 · 15:30B. Zaika1.281111113O. Ovsiienko3.507780LSep 16 · 13:00B. Zaika2.751011114102O. Tymofeev1.40127911123WSep 6 · 18:00V. Smyk3.259470B. Zaika1.331111113WSep 6 · 17:00B. Zaika1.6111113113K. Klymenko2.20831191WSep 6 · 16:00B. Zaika1.7311811113S. Baranskyi2.00611391WSep 6 · 14:30B. Zaika1.4411112O. Leonenko2.63560WSep 6 · 12:30B. Zaika1.3611311113O. Ovsiienko3.00811651WSep 2 · 18:30B. Zaika1.571111113O. Ovsiienko2.257380WSep 2 · 16:30O. Mytsyk2.25861181B. Zaika1.5711116113LSep 2 · 15:30B. Zaika1.6111681192M. Stetsenko2.20611116113
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