TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13136672
Played Sep 16Finished
Vasiliy Smyk
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
511711116911––
Andrii Kurtenko
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:58 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAndrii Kurtenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVasiliy Smyk above · Andrii Kurtenko below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 71 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Andrii Kurtenko at 54.0%
71 points played in total.
H2H Vasiliy Smyk 8–12 Andrii Kurtenko Vasiliy Smyk has won 8 of their 20 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:58What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Kurtenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-12 in 20
Kurtenko
Correct
gap of 4 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Smyk 1366 vs Kurtenko 1425
Kurtenko
Correct
both rated, 59 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Smyk 20% vs Kurtenko 40%
Kurtenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Smyk 20% vs Kurtenko 40%
Kurtenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Smyk -1 · Kurtenko -3
Kurtenko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kurtenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kurtenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSmyk 1.91 / Kurtenko 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kurtenko)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13136672
Smyk1.91
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog39% won 88 of 224
Down 0–1, comes back20% 25 of 123
Down 0–2, comes back7% 5 of 70
Kurtenko1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite61% won 146 of 241
Up 2–0, closes it91% 83 of 91
Up 1–0, closes it80% 111 of 139
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSmyk3wins
AwayKurtenko7wins
5 of 10 to a deciderKurtenko leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSmyk25%1 of 4
AwayKurtenko66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Smyk4Kurtenko6n = 10Kurtenko took 6 of 10
S2Smyk4Kurtenko6n = 10Kurtenko took 6 of 10
S3Smyk5Kurtenko5n = 10split evenly
S4Smyk6Kurtenko4n = 10Smyk took 6 of 10
S5Smyk1Kurtenko4n = 5Kurtenko took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSmykKurtenkoS − KBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match40.842.6−1.8per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSmykKurtenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime269 / 643 vs 342 / 65441.8%52.3%269 / 643 vs 342 / 654Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.736.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KurtenkoSmyk 1.91/Kurtenko 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kurtenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kurtenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 5 · 18:00V. Smyk26471141A. Kurtenko4211119113
LAug 23 · 06:50V. Smyk4071161152A. Kurtenko50118119113
LAug 22 · 17:00V. Smyk5391171792A. Kurtenko571191115113
WAug 19 · 16:00V. Smyk463101111113A. Kurtenko3611123552
LJul 20 · 08:20V. Smyk4511591192A. Kurtenko43411116113
LJul 19 · 15:30V. Smyk51111161672A. Kurtenko46331118113
WMay 17 · 18:20V. Smyk4814911143A. Kurtenko4112116121
LApr 7 · 11:40V. Smyk3981011101A. Kurtenko4411129123
LMar 7 · 16:50V. Smyk22114251A. Kurtenko4291111113
WAug 4 · 10:50V. Smyk3851111113A. Kurtenko25114551
V. Smyk10
LSep 16 · 14:30V. Smyk3.50671171B. Zaika1.2811116113WSep 16 · 12:30V. Smyk1.44117914113O. Ovsiienko2.63911111252LSep 12 · 18:00A. Kurtenko1.8314102V. Smyk1.831290LSep 12 · 17:00V. Smyk2.5087100O. Tymofeev1.501111123LSep 12 · 16:00V. Smyk2.3810570S. Solomko1.531211113WSep 12 · 14:30V. Smyk2.2511311343O. Leonenko1.5791161112LSep 12 · 12:30V. Smyk1.911111119102E. Populovskyi1.80138811123LSep 11 · 18:00A. Kovalenko2.0031111113V. Smyk1.73119991LSep 11 · 17:00V. Smyk2.50111231082O. Tymofeev1.509101112113LSep 11 · 16:00V. Smyk1.917750E. Populovskyi1.801111113
A. Kurtenko10
WSep 16 · 17:30O. Ovsiienko1.838750A. Kurtenko1.831111113LSep 16 · 14:00O. Tymofeev1.531111113A. Kurtenko2.383930LSep 16 · 12:00F. Voinarovskyi1.33118811113A. Kurtenko3.2521111762LSep 15 · 12:05A. Martyniuk1.361111173A. Kurtenko3.0069150WSep 15 · 10:35A. Kurtenko1.91111011123E. Populovskyi1.806127101WSep 15 · 08:35A. Kovalenko1.83711921A. Kurtenko1.8311711113LSep 15 · 06:35O. Osadchyi1.731112113A. Kurtenko2.0061090WSep 15 · 05:35S. Skhabitskiy2.63611111162A. Kurtenko1.44111374113LSep 13 · 12:50A. Kurtenko1.73101090E. Populovskyi2.001212113WSep 12 · 18:00A. Kurtenko1.8314102V. Smyk1.831290
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A. Kurtenko
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