TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13136432
Played Sep 16Finished
Oleksandr Tymofeev
Home
1.53
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
113119113––––
Andrii Kurtenko
Away
2.38
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:24 and never touched — 63.6% is still 63.6%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Tymofeev to win
63.6%
63.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Tymofeev above · Andrii Kurtenko below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-3
Point 48 set 3, 11-3 — our read held Oleksandr Tymofeev at 63.6%
48 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Tymofeev 2–2 Andrii Kurtenko Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:24What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Tymofeev
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tymofeev 1479 vs Kurtenko 1437
Tymofeev
Correct
both rated, 42 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tymofeev 80% vs Kurtenko 40%
Tymofeev
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tymofeev 80% vs Kurtenko 40%
Tymofeev
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Tymofeev +3 · Kurtenko -2
Tymofeev
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Tymofeev)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tymofeev form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTymofeev 1.53 / Kurtenko 2.38
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Tymofeev)+2.8pp
Setka Cup · #13136432
Tymofeev1.53
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite73% won 95 of 131
Up 2–0, closes it92% 47 of 51
Up 1–0, closes it91% 67 of 74
Kurtenko2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog39% won 50 of 127
Down 0–1, comes back15% 10 of 65
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 42
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeTymofeev2wins
AwayKurtenko2wins
2 of 4 to a deciderLevel at 2–2, and 2 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTymofeev33.3%1 of 3
AwayKurtenkon = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tymofeev3Kurtenko1n = 4Tymofeev took 3 of 4
S2Tymofeev3Kurtenko1n = 4Tymofeev took 3 of 4
S3Tymofeev1Kurtenko3n = 4Kurtenko took 3 of 4
S4Tymofeev3Kurtenko1n = 4Tymofeev took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home250%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away250%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricTymofeevKurtenkoT − KBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set31+2of 4Avg pointsper match43.039.2+3.8per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTymofeevKurtenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime284 / 540 vs 342 / 65352.6%52.4%284 / 540 vs 342 / 653Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.236.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TymofeevTymofeev 1.53/Kurtenko 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.6%
Tymofeev · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Tymofeev won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WSep 13 · 06:50O. Tymofeev3851111113A. Kurtenko31119921
WSep 5 · 15:00O. Tymofeev3911111073A. Kurtenko30851251
LAug 16 · 09:20O. Tymofeev4811891192A. Kurtenko43211118113
LAug 9 · 05:50O. Tymofeev47121191052A. Kurtenko531091112113
O. Tymofeev10
WSep 16 · 13:00B. Zaika2.751011114102O. Tymofeev1.40127911123WSep 13 · 12:20O. Tymofeev1.5091113103S. Solomko2.501141181WSep 13 · 10:20O. Osadchyi1.67115591O. Tymofeev2.1091111113LSep 13 · 09:20O. Tymofeev2.25118115102E. Populovskyi1.57811611123WSep 13 · 08:20A. Martyniuk1.611110551O. Tymofeev2.2041211113WSep 13 · 06:50O. Tymofeev1.5751111113A. Kurtenko2.25119921LSep 12 · 19:00O. Tymofeev2.0081050E. Populovskyi1.731112113WSep 12 · 17:00V. Smyk2.5087100O. Tymofeev1.501111123WSep 12 · 15:00A. Kurtenko2.10330O. Tymofeev1.6711112WSep 12 · 14:00O. Tymofeev1.50111152S. Solomko2.5069111
A. Kurtenko10
LSep 16 · 12:00F. Voinarovskyi1.33118811113A. Kurtenko3.2521111762LSep 15 · 12:05A. Martyniuk1.361111173A. Kurtenko3.0069150WSep 15 · 10:35A. Kurtenko1.91111011123E. Populovskyi1.806127101WSep 15 · 08:35A. Kovalenko1.83711921A. Kurtenko1.8311711113LSep 15 · 06:35O. Osadchyi1.731112113A. Kurtenko2.0061090WSep 15 · 05:35S. Skhabitskiy2.63611111162A. Kurtenko1.44111374113LSep 13 · 12:50A. Kurtenko1.73101090E. Populovskyi2.001212113LSep 13 · 10:50A. Martyniuk1.33111179123A. Kurtenko3.25581111102LSep 13 · 06:50O. Tymofeev1.5751111113A. Kurtenko2.25119921LSep 12 · 15:00A. Kurtenko2.10330O. Tymofeev1.6711112
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