TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Vasiliy Smyk
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
711117711811––
Oleksandr Lipeiko
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:45 and never touched — 56.2% is still 56.2%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Lipeiko to win
56.2%
56.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVasiliy Smyk above · Oleksandr Lipeiko below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 73 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Oleksandr Lipeiko at 56.2%
73 points played in total.
H2H Vasiliy Smyk 14–19 Oleksandr Lipeiko Vasiliy Smyk has won 14 of their 33 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:45What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Lipeiko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-19 in 33
Lipeiko
Correct
gap of 5 in 33, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Smyk 1421 vs Lipeiko 1427
Lipeiko
Correct
both rated, 5 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Smyk 40% vs Lipeiko 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Smyk 30% vs Lipeiko 60%
Lipeiko
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Smyk -1 · Lipeiko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Lipeiko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lipeiko form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSmyk 2.10 / Lipeiko 1.67
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Lipeiko)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13162124
Smyk2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog39% won 87 of 223
Down 0–1, comes back20% 25 of 124
Down 0–2, comes back7% 5 of 71
Lipeiko1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite57% won 57 of 100
Up 2–0, closes it87% 33 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it77% 47 of 61
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSmyk5wins
AwayLipeiko5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSmyk66.7%4 of 6
AwayLipeiko75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Smyk6Lipeiko4n = 10Smyk took 6 of 10
S2Smyk3Lipeiko7n = 10Lipeiko took 7 of 10
S3Smyk4Lipeiko6n = 10Lipeiko took 6 of 10
S4Smyk4Lipeiko4n = 8split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSmykLipeikoS − LBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.540.0−1.5per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSmykLipeikoBasisWin rate · lifetime266 / 639 vs 248 / 51741.6%48%266 / 639 vs 248 / 517Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.837.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LipeikoSmyk 2.10/Lipeiko 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.2%
Lipeiko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Lipeiko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 25 · 14:10V. Smyk35891171O. Lipeiko4011117113
LAug 13 · 14:30V. Smyk38119991O. Lipeiko4181111113
LAug 11 · 13:10V. Smyk386129111O. Lipeiko45111011133
WAug 8 · 16:00V. Smyk517111011123O. Lipeiko49117129102
WJun 28 · 06:50V. Smyk4112711113O. Lipeiko331011841
WMay 31 · 08:20V. Smyk501111611113O. Lipeiko5191311992
WMay 23 · 21:20V. Smyk411911113O. Lipeiko3317880
WMay 18 · 08:20V. Smyk4111811113O. Lipeiko32611691
LMay 7 · 15:10V. Smyk351184121O. Lipeiko4371111143
LApr 14 · 17:10V. Smyk156270O. Lipeiko331111113
V. Smyk10
LSep 20 · 14:30S. Skhabitskiy2.0011511333V. Smyk1.7341191122WSep 16 · 18:00F. Voinarovskyi1.831171061V. Smyk1.8371112113LSep 16 · 16:00V. Smyk1.91571191A. Kurtenko1.8011116113LSep 16 · 14:30V. Smyk3.50671171B. Zaika1.2811116113WSep 16 · 12:30V. Smyk1.44117914113O. Ovsiienko2.63911111252LSep 12 · 18:00A. Kurtenko1.8314102V. Smyk1.831290LSep 12 · 17:00V. Smyk2.5087100O. Tymofeev1.501111123LSep 12 · 16:00V. Smyk2.3810570S. Solomko1.531211113WSep 12 · 14:30V. Smyk2.2511311343O. Leonenko1.5791161112LSep 12 · 12:30V. Smyk1.911111119102E. Populovskyi1.80138811123
O. Lipeiko10
WSep 20 · 13:32V. Nechai1.57112771O. Lipeiko2.2591111113LSep 20 · 12:30S. Skhabitskiy2.501211113O. Lipeiko1.5010890WSep 19 · 18:30O. Lipeiko1.7311811123S. Baranskyi2.006119101LSep 19 · 16:30A. Martyniuk1.3658131183O. Lipeiko3.00111111662LSep 19 · 15:30O. Lipeiko1.9111120S. Solomko1.80131183LSep 19 · 14:30B. Zaika1.731112111093O. Lipeiko2.0081451252WSep 17 · 12:20O. Lipeiko1.441111113O. Ovsiienko2.637930WSep 17 · 10:20S. Skhabitskiy2.255660O. Lipeiko1.571111113WSep 17 · 09:20O. Lipeiko1.911111710113A. Kovalenko1.8046111292WSep 17 · 08:20M. Stetsenko1.838990O. Lipeiko1.831111113
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