TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13142706
Played Sep 17Finished
Oleksandr Lipeiko
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1141167111012119
Anatolii Kovalenko
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:13 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAnatolii Kovalenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOleksandr Lipeiko above · Anatolii Kovalenko below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 92 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Anatolii Kovalenko at 54.0%
92 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Lipeiko 8–9 Anatolii Kovalenko Oleksandr Lipeiko has won 8 of their 17 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:13What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Kovalenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-9 in 17
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lipeiko 1397 vs Kovalenko 1419
Kovalenko
Wrong
both rated, 22 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lipeiko 60% vs Kovalenko 40%
Lipeiko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lipeiko 50% vs Kovalenko 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Lipeiko +3 · Kovalenko +2
Lipeiko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kovalenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kovalenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLipeiko 1.91 / Kovalenko 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kovalenko)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13142706
Lipeiko1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog41% won 47 of 116
Down 0–1, comes back26% 16 of 62
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 32
Kovalenko1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As favourite52% won 74 of 142
Up 2–0, closes it94% 32 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it69% 50 of 73
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLipeiko5wins
AwayKovalenko5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLipeiko71.4%5 of 7
AwayKovalenko100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lipeiko7Kovalenko3n = 10Lipeiko took 7 of 10
S2Lipeiko6Kovalenko4n = 10Lipeiko took 6 of 10
S3Lipeiko5Kovalenko5n = 10split evenly
S4Lipeiko0Kovalenko5n = 5Kovalenko took 5 of 5
S5Lipeiko2Kovalenko2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricLipeikoKovalenkoL − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match37.035.6+1.4per matchSweeps32+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLipeikoKovalenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime245 / 510 vs 280 / 52848%53%245 / 510 vs 280 / 528Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.537.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KovalenkoLipeiko 1.91/Kovalenko 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kovalenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Lipeiko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 6 · 06:50O. Lipeiko29109100A. Kovalenko351211123
LAug 25 · 12:10O. Lipeiko401311881A. Kovalenko4415711113
LAug 17 · 07:05O. Lipeiko197750A. Kovalenko331111113
LAug 11 · 14:40O. Lipeiko4511118782A. Kovalenko49881111113
WJul 25 · 17:30O. Lipeiko45113119113A. Kovalenko4991191192
WJul 13 · 06:50O. Lipeiko48119134113A. Kovalenko41511111132
LJul 8 · 06:05O. Lipeiko45111184112A. Kovalenko47841111133
WJul 1 · 12:30O. Lipeiko331111113A. Kovalenko199640
WMay 31 · 06:50O. Lipeiko331111113A. Kovalenko185490
WApr 14 · 16:10O. Lipeiko331111113A. Kovalenko217950
O. Lipeiko10
WSep 17 · 08:20M. Stetsenko1.838990O. Lipeiko1.831111113WSep 17 · 06:50O. Lipeiko1.7311412113O. Mytsyk2.006111041WSep 7 · 11:35O. Lipeiko1.67761111113O. Ovsiienko2.1011119652LSep 7 · 09:35K. Klymenko3.40411711113O. Lipeiko1.3011311832LSep 7 · 08:35O. Lipeiko2.638770A. Martyniuk1.441111113WSep 7 · 07:35O. Leonenko3.751011651O. Lipeiko1.2512511113LSep 7 · 06:05O. Lipeiko2.508460O. Shyshman1.501111113LSep 6 · 12:20O. Lipeiko1.571171091M. Stetsenko2.2511112113LSep 6 · 10:20D. Patalakha1.73291111113O. Lipeiko2.0011117652WSep 6 · 09:20O. Lipeiko1.91611611153S. Solomko1.80111118132
A. Kovalenko10
WSep 17 · 07:20S. Skhabitskiy2.5012129782A. Kovalenko1.5010101111113WSep 17 · 06:20M. Stetsenko3.00381171A. Kovalenko1.3611117113LSep 15 · 11:35A. Kovalenko1.831011881E. Populovskyi1.8312911113LSep 15 · 09:35O. Osadchyi1.531112113A. Kovalenko2.3891080LSep 15 · 08:35A. Kovalenko1.83711921A. Kurtenko1.8311711113WSep 15 · 07:35S. Skhabitskiy2.25115961A. Kovalenko1.5771111113LSep 15 · 06:05A. Kovalenko2.634880A. Martyniuk1.441111113WSep 11 · 18:00A. Kovalenko2.0031111113V. Smyk1.73119991WSep 11 · 16:30A. Kovalenko2.20911119143O. Leonenko1.61116911122LSep 11 · 15:00A. Kovalenko2.635911101O. Tymofeev1.4411119123
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