TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Vasiliy Smyk
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
118911411911––
Oleksandr Ovsiienko
Away
2.50
At publish
Won last 6Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:55 and never touched — 64.1% is still 64.1%
Graded at full timeVasiliy Smyk to win
64.1%
64.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVasiliy Smyk above · Oleksandr Ovsiienko below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 74 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Vasiliy Smyk at 64.1%
74 points played in total.
H2H Vasiliy Smyk 7–2 Oleksandr Ovsiienko Oleksandr Ovsiienko has won 2 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:55What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Smyk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-2 in 9
Smyk
Wrong
gap of 5 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Smyk 1416 vs Ovsiienko 1424
Ovsiienko
Correct
both rated, 7 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Smyk 40% vs Ovsiienko 100%
Ovsiienko
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Smyk 40% vs Ovsiienko 70%
Ovsiienko
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Smyk +1 · Ovsiienko +6
Ovsiienko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Smyk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ovsiienko form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSmyk 1.50 / Ovsiienko 2.50
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Smyk)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13161812
Smyk1.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite58% won 30 of 52
Up 2–0, closes it100% 14 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it77% 20 of 26
Ovsiienko2.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 6
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog37% won 76 of 204
Down 0–1, comes back16% 18 of 111
Down 0–2, comes back7% 5 of 74
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeSmyk7wins
AwayOvsiienko2wins
2 of 9 to a deciderSmyk leads 7–2, and 2 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSmyk100%3 of 3
AwayOvsiienko33.3%2 of 6
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Smyk3Ovsiienko6n = 9Ovsiienko took 6 of 9
S2Smyk6Ovsiienko3n = 9Smyk took 6 of 9
S3Smyk6Ovsiienko3n = 9Smyk took 6 of 9
S4Smyk4Ovsiienko1n = 5Smyk took 4 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home222%
3–1Four sets, home333%
3–2Decider, home222%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away111%
0–3Straight, away111%
These 9 meetings
MetricSmykOvsiienkoS − OBasisWins72+5in 9 meetingsFirst set36−3of 9Avg pointsper match38.233.9+4.3per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSmykOvsiienkoBasisWin rate · lifetime267 / 641 vs 451 / 87241.7%51.7%267 / 641 vs 451 / 872Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.836.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SmykSmyk 1.50/Ovsiienko 2.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64.1%
Smyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Ovsiienko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WSep 16 · 12:30V. Smyk52117914113O. Ovsiienko48911111252
WSep 9 · 14:30V. Smyk351113113O. Ovsiienko2991190
LSep 2 · 16:00V. Smyk36911791O. Ovsiienko4111811113
WAug 19 · 12:30V. Smyk45391111113O. Ovsiienko3511116522
WAug 16 · 14:30V. Smyk331111113O. Ovsiienko208660
WAug 9 · 16:00V. Smyk46101411113O. Ovsiienko341212551
WJul 20 · 10:20V. Smyk4071111113O. Ovsiienko30118381
LJul 19 · 18:30V. Smyk1961030O. Ovsiienko341112113
V. Smyk10
WSep 20 · 16:29V. Nechai1.91611111062V. Smyk1.80112912113LSep 20 · 15:30V. Smyk2.10711781O. Lipeiko1.6711711113LSep 20 · 14:30S. Skhabitskiy2.0011511333V. Smyk1.7341191122WSep 16 · 18:00F. Voinarovskyi1.831171061V. Smyk1.8371112113LSep 16 · 16:00V. Smyk1.91571191A. Kurtenko1.8011116113LSep 16 · 14:30V. Smyk3.50671171B. Zaika1.2811116113WSep 16 · 12:30V. Smyk1.44117914113O. Ovsiienko2.63911111252LSep 12 · 18:00A. Kurtenko1.8314102V. Smyk1.831290LSep 12 · 17:00V. Smyk2.5087100O. Tymofeev1.501111123LSep 12 · 16:00V. Smyk2.3810570S. Solomko1.531211113
O. Ovsiienko10
WSep 20 · 17:30O. Lipeiko1.3011127982O. Ovsiienko3.409101111113WSep 20 · 16:00S. Skhabitskiy1.73441131O. Ovsiienko2.0011119113WSep 20 · 12:00V. Nechai2.0051070O. Ovsiienko1.731112113WSep 19 · 11:00K. Klymenko2.7571220O. Ovsiienko1.401114113WSep 19 · 10:00S. Semenets3.753740O. Ovsiienko1.251111113WSep 19 · 08:30S. Skhabitskiy1.507870O. Ovsiienko2.501111113LSep 19 · 06:30V. Melnykov3.0011115113O. Ovsiienko1.36871191WSep 19 · 04:30M. Stetsenko1.83116471O. Ovsiienko1.8391111113LSep 17 · 12:20O. Lipeiko1.441111113O. Ovsiienko2.637930LSep 16 · 12:30V. Smyk1.44117914113O. Ovsiienko2.63911111252
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