TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13155193
Played Sep 19Finished
Volodymyr Melnykov
Home
3.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
118117511119––
Oleksandr Ovsiienko
Away
1.36
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:20 and never touched — 70.0% is still 70.0%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Ovsiienko to win
70.0%
70.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVolodymyr Melnykov above · Oleksandr Ovsiienko below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 73 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Oleksandr Ovsiienko at 70.0%
73 points played in total.
H2H Volodymyr Melnykov 3–4 Oleksandr Ovsiienko Volodymyr Melnykov has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:20What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Ovsiienko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-4 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Melnykov 1350 vs Ovsiienko 1351
Ovsiienko
Wrong
both rated, 1 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Melnykov 40% vs Ovsiienko 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Melnykov 50% vs Ovsiienko 20%
Melnykov
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Melnykov +1 · Ovsiienko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Ovsiienko) · live re-read · sealed at 70% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ovsiienko form (40%) is below what odds imply (73%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMelnykov 3.00 / Ovsiienko 1.36
Signal prob.31% / 69%
Edge (Ovsiienko)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13155193
Melnykov3.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog36% won 53 of 147
Down 0–1, comes back21% 19 of 91
Down 0–2, comes back11% 6 of 56
Ovsiienko1.36
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As favourite67% won 136 of 202
Up 2–0, closes it98% 88 of 90
Up 1–0, closes it85% 111 of 130
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeMelnykov3wins
AwayOvsiienko4wins
2 of 7 to a deciderOvsiienko leads 4–3, and 2 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMelnykovn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayOvsiienko80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Melnykov2Ovsiienko5n = 7Ovsiienko took 5 of 7
S2Melnykov2Ovsiienko5n = 7Ovsiienko took 5 of 7
S3Melnykov2Ovsiienko5n = 7Ovsiienko took 5 of 7
S4Melnykov2Ovsiienko2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home114%
3–2Decider, home229%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away343%
These 7 meetings
MetricMelnykovOvsiienkoM − OBasisWins34−1in 7 meetingsFirst set25−3of 7Avg pointsper match32.638.3−5.7per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMelnykovOvsiienkoBasisWin rate · lifetime245 / 532 vs 445 / 86646.1%51.4%245 / 532 vs 445 / 866Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.036.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OvsiienkoMelnykov 3.00/Ovsiienko 1.36
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
69.2%
Ovsiienko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Melnykov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WSep 19 · 06:30V. Melnykov3811115113O. Ovsiienko35871191
LSep 13 · 14:00V. Melnykov36981181O. Ovsiienko4011117113
LAug 27 · 11:30V. Melnykov246990O. Ovsiienko331111113
LAug 26 · 12:30V. Melnykov91440O. Ovsiienko331111113
LAug 24 · 07:50V. Melnykov198290O. Ovsiienko331111113
WJul 19 · 12:00V. Melnykov51911911113O. Ovsiienko4311511792
WJul 5 · 18:30V. Melnykov51119146113O. Ovsiienko51911121182
V. Melnykov10
WSep 19 · 05:30K. Klymenko3.00131011282V. Melnykov1.361112811113LSep 13 · 19:00V. Melnykov2.105970M. Stetsenko1.671111113LSep 13 · 17:00O. Mytsyk1.6741111973V. Melnykov2.1011671142WSep 13 · 15:00A. Dekhtiarenko1.804770V. Melnykov1.911111113LSep 13 · 14:00V. Melnykov2.63981181O. Ovsiienko1.4411117113LSep 13 · 13:00S. Baranskyi2.001111113V. Melnykov1.736750WSep 7 · 12:50V. Melnykov1.401116113S. Semenets2.7551450WSep 7 · 10:50V. Stukalov3.40117791V. Melnykov1.3081111113WSep 7 · 08:50V. Korniichuk2.1081050V. Melnykov1.671112113LSep 7 · 07:50V. Melnykov1.83116651M. Stetsenko1.8341111113
O. Ovsiienko10
WSep 19 · 04:30M. Stetsenko1.83116471O. Ovsiienko1.8391111113LSep 17 · 12:20O. Lipeiko1.441111113O. Ovsiienko2.637930LSep 17 · 11:20A. Kovalenko1.441111113O. Ovsiienko2.635580WSep 17 · 09:50M. Stetsenko1.838118111O. Ovsiienko1.8311211133LSep 17 · 07:50O. Mytsyk1.8311111114133O. Ovsiienko1.83361316112LSep 17 · 05:50S. Skhabitskiy1.44111313113O. Ovsiienko2.633111571LSep 16 · 19:00O. Tymofeev1.911111113O. Ovsiienko1.807580LSep 16 · 17:30O. Ovsiienko1.838750A. Kurtenko1.831111113LSep 16 · 15:30B. Zaika1.281111113O. Ovsiienko3.507780WSep 13 · 14:00V. Melnykov2.63981181O. Ovsiienko1.4411117113
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