TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 21Finished
Vitalii Mukhin
Home
3.75
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1167111191012311
Maksym Stetsenko
Away
1.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:31 and never touched — 76.6% is still 76.6%
Graded at full timeMaksym Stetsenko to win
76.6%
76.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVitalii Mukhin above · Maksym Stetsenko below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 3-11
Point 91 set 5, 3-11 — our read held Maksym Stetsenko at 76.6%
91 points played in total.
H2H Vitalii Mukhin 3–15 Maksym Stetsenko Vitalii Mukhin has won 3 of their 18 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:31What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Stetsenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-15 in 18
Stetsenko
Correct
gap of 12 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mukhin 1373 vs Stetsenko 1385
Stetsenko
Correct
both rated, 12 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mukhin 40% vs Stetsenko 60%
Stetsenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mukhin 60% vs Stetsenko 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mukhin -1 · Stetsenko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 77% — Strong (leans Stetsenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stetsenko form (60%) is below what odds imply (80%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMukhin 3.75 / Stetsenko 1.25
Signal prob.23% / 77%
Edge (Stetsenko)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13166075
Mukhin3.75
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog32% won 29 of 90
Down 0–1, comes back17% 9 of 53
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 32
Stetsenko1.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 19)
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite68% won 117 of 171
Up 2–0, closes it99% 69 of 70
Up 1–0, closes it88% 90 of 102
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMukhin0wins
AwayStetsenko10wins
4 of 10 to a deciderStetsenko leads 10–0, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMukhin0%0 of 3
AwayStetsenko100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mukhin3Stetsenko7n = 10Stetsenko took 7 of 10
S2Mukhin2Stetsenko8n = 10Stetsenko took 8 of 10
S3Mukhin2Stetsenko8n = 10Stetsenko took 8 of 10
S4Mukhin2Stetsenko3n = 5Stetsenko took 3 of 5
S5Mukhin0Stetsenko4n = 4Stetsenko took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away550%
These 10 meetings
MetricMukhinStetsenkoM − SBasisWins010−10in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match32.339.9−7.6per matchSweeps05−53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMukhinStetsenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime168 / 321 vs 441 / 84852.3%52%168 / 321 vs 441 / 848Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.737.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StetsenkoMukhin 3.75/Stetsenko 1.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
76.6%
Stetsenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Stetsenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 14 · 07:20V. Mukhin219570M. Stetsenko331111113
LJun 21 · 13:40V. Mukhin2665150M. Stetsenko391111173
LJun 18 · 08:05V. Mukhin167630M. Stetsenko331111113
LJun 10 · 06:00V. Mukhin2381050M. Stetsenko341112113
LJun 8 · 07:30V. Mukhin3976111142M. Stetsenko39111133113
LJun 4 · 06:35V. Mukhin46111291132M. Stetsenko49814115113
LJun 1 · 07:30V. Mukhin47111186112M. Stetsenko52891111133
LMay 27 · 08:05V. Mukhin36811981M. Stetsenko4011711113
LMay 19 · 08:05V. Mukhin225980M. Stetsenko331111113
LMay 18 · 04:30V. Mukhin47117111172M. Stetsenko47711513113
V. Mukhin10
LSep 21 · 06:35V. Mukhin4.336780S. Skhabitskiy1.201111113LSep 20 · 11:05V. Mukhin1.44118471D. Khavanskyi2.6391111113WSep 20 · 09:35V. Mukhin1.251111113V. Stukalov3.756590LSep 20 · 08:05V. Mukhin2.25661161O. Mytsyk1.5711117113LSep 20 · 06:35V. Mukhin1.501161111S. Semenets2.5013118113WSep 20 · 05:05V. Mukhin1.9111211113M. Khalenko1.80311681WSep 18 · 11:05V. Mukhin2.101111113K. Klymenko1.677470WSep 18 · 09:35V. Mukhin1.281111113V. Stukalov3.503980LSep 18 · 08:05V. Mukhin2.25211711112O. Mytsyk1.57116115133WSep 18 · 06:35V. Mukhin1.50611116113S. Semenets2.5011661192
M. Stetsenko10
LSep 21 · 07:05O. Mytsyk2.501111113M. Stetsenko1.509840WSep 19 · 10:30M. Stetsenko1.801211113S. Skhabitskiy1.9110540LSep 19 · 09:00M. Stetsenko3.257119101K. Klymenko1.3311511123WSep 19 · 07:30M. Stetsenko1.531212123V. Melnykov2.381010100WSep 19 · 06:00M. Stetsenko1.2511811113S. Semenets3.75711731LSep 19 · 04:30M. Stetsenko1.83116471O. Ovsiienko1.8391111113WSep 17 · 11:50S. Skhabitskiy1.8321111962M. Stetsenko1.83118811113WSep 17 · 10:50M. Stetsenko1.50611115113O. Mytsyk2.5011861192LSep 17 · 09:50M. Stetsenko1.838118111O. Ovsiienko1.8311211133LSep 17 · 08:20M. Stetsenko1.838990O. Lipeiko1.831111113
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