TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Vitalii Mukhin
Home
1.44
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
119811411711––
Denys Khavanskyi
Away
2.63
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:38 and never touched — 63.6% is still 63.6%
Graded at full timeVitalii Mukhin to win
63.6%
63.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVitalii Mukhin above · Denys Khavanskyi below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 72 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Vitalii Mukhin at 63.6%
72 points played in total.
H2H Vitalii Mukhin 6–6 Denys Khavanskyi Dead even across their 12 meetings.
Last 10 · 4–6Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:38What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Mukhin
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-6 in 12
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mukhin 1373 vs Khavanskyi 1268
Mukhin
Wrong
both rated, 104 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mukhin 60% vs Khavanskyi 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mukhin 70% vs Khavanskyi 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mukhin +1 · Khavanskyi +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Mukhin) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Khavanskyi form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMukhin 1.44 / Khavanskyi 2.63
Signal prob.67% / 33%
Edge (Mukhin)+2.8pp
Setka Cup · #13161251
Mukhin1.44
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite71% won 93 of 132
Up 2–0, closes it94% 50 of 53
Up 1–0, closes it85% 69 of 81
Khavanskyi2.63
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog42% won 25 of 59
Down 0–1, comes back19% 6 of 31
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 20
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMukhin4wins
AwayKhavanskyi6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKhavanskyi leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMukhin25%1 of 4
AwayKhavanskyi50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mukhin4Khavanskyi6n = 10Khavanskyi took 6 of 10
S2Mukhin4Khavanskyi6n = 10Khavanskyi took 6 of 10
S3Mukhin5Khavanskyi5n = 10split evenly
S4Mukhin6Khavanskyi3n = 9Mukhin took 6 of 9
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMukhinKhavanskyiM − KBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match34.637.3−2.7per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMukhinKhavanskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime168 / 321 vs 165 / 32352.3%51.1%168 / 321 vs 165 / 323Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.735.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MukhinMukhin 1.44/Khavanskyi 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
67.3%
Mukhin · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Khavanskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 20 · 11:05V. Mukhin30118471D. Khavanskyi4291111113
WSep 9 · 05:05V. Mukhin4061211113D. Khavanskyi351110771
WSep 4 · 12:00V. Mukhin3851111113D. Khavanskyi32117591
WAug 30 · 05:05V. Mukhin4071111113D. Khavanskyi28119531
LAug 29 · 07:20V. Mukhin174760D. Khavanskyi331111113
WMay 13 · 10:30V. Mukhin3911611113D. Khavanskyi28811451
LDec 11 · 16:10V. Mukhin4411961172D. Khavanskyi41411114113
LSep 13 · 05:05V. Mukhin4111491522D. Khavanskyi559111113113
LSep 6 · 05:05V. Mukhin281111511D. Khavanskyi3713211113
LSep 5 · 05:50V. Mukhin29811191D. Khavanskyi4211119113
V. Mukhin10
WSep 20 · 09:35V. Mukhin1.251111113V. Stukalov3.756590LSep 20 · 08:05V. Mukhin2.25661161O. Mytsyk1.5711117113LSep 20 · 06:35V. Mukhin1.501161111S. Semenets2.5013118113WSep 20 · 05:05V. Mukhin1.9111211113M. Khalenko1.80311681WSep 18 · 11:05V. Mukhin2.101111113K. Klymenko1.677470WSep 18 · 09:35V. Mukhin1.281111113V. Stukalov3.503980LSep 18 · 08:05V. Mukhin2.25211711112O. Mytsyk1.57116115133WSep 18 · 06:35V. Mukhin1.50611116113S. Semenets2.5011661192WSep 18 · 05:05V. Mukhin2.5011117113V. Korniichuk1.50871191WSep 14 · 11:50V. Mukhin2.3811511113K. Klymenko1.53511231
D. Khavanskyi10
WSep 20 · 10:05D. Khavanskyi2.6331111113O. Mytsyk1.44112771LSep 20 · 09:05D. Khavanskyi2.38661291M. Khalenko1.53111110113WSep 20 · 07:35D. Khavanskyi1.831111113V. Stukalov1.837740LSep 20 · 05:35D. Khavanskyi1.67912612102S. Semenets2.1011101110123WSep 19 · 12:20O. Stopin2.10911116132D. Khavanskyi1.67113511153WSep 19 · 11:20V. Varchenko1.6111550D. Khavanskyi2.201311113WSep 19 · 09:50V. Mykhalchenko1.446870D. Khavanskyi2.631111113WSep 19 · 07:50V. Kucheriavyi1.4464110D. Khavanskyi2.631111133LSep 19 · 05:50V. Stukalov1.911111133D. Khavanskyi1.8085110LSep 16 · 12:20V. Kondratenko1.6711916123D. Khavanskyi2.1041114101
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