TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Denys Khavanskyi
Home
2.38
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
6116111210911––
Mykhailo Khalenko
Away
1.53
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:55 and never touched — 58.5% is still 58.5%
Graded at full timeMykhailo Khalenko to win
58.5%
58.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDenys Khavanskyi above · Mykhailo Khalenko below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 76 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Mykhailo Khalenko at 58.5%
76 points played in total.
H2H Denys Khavanskyi 10–8 Mykhailo Khalenko Mykhailo Khalenko has won 8 of their 18 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:55What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Khalenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-8 in 18
Khavanskyi
Wrong
gap of 2 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Khavanskyi 1246 vs Khalenko 1325
Khalenko
Correct
both rated, 79 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Khavanskyi 80% vs Khalenko 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Khavanskyi 60% vs Khalenko 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Khavanskyi +1 · Khalenko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Slight lean (leans Khalenko) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Khalenko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKhavanskyi 2.38 / Khalenko 1.53
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Khalenko)+0.8pp
Setka Cup · #13161549
Khavanskyi2.38
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog42% won 25 of 59
Down 0–1, comes back19% 6 of 31
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 20
Khalenko1.53
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite75% won 47 of 63
Up 2–0, closes it96% 23 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it89% 33 of 37
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKhavanskyi6wins
AwayKhalenko4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKhavanskyi leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKhavanskyi60%3 of 5
AwayKhalenko40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Khavanskyi5Khalenko5n = 10split evenly
S2Khavanskyi5Khalenko5n = 10split evenly
S3Khavanskyi4Khalenko6n = 10Khalenko took 6 of 10
S4Khavanskyi4Khalenko3n = 7Khavanskyi took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKhavanskyiKhalenkoKhavanskyi − KhalenkoBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match36.236.6−0.4per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKhavanskyiKhalenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime163 / 320 vs 182 / 35950.9%50.7%163 / 320 vs 182 / 359Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.537.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KhalenkoKhavanskyi 2.38/Khalenko 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.6%
Khalenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Khalenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 13 · 10:35D. Khavanskyi27117541M. Khalenko3961111113
WSep 9 · 10:35D. Khavanskyi51911811123M. Khalenko45118115102
LSep 4 · 17:30D. Khavanskyi29116931M. Khalenko4291111113
LSep 3 · 05:05D. Khavanskyi146260M. Khalenko331111113
WSep 6 · 10:35D. Khavanskyi371115113M. Khalenko2761380
WAug 30 · 10:35D. Khavanskyi44115116113M. Khalenko4181141172
WAug 26 · 11:40D. Khavanskyi4071111113M. Khalenko33118591
WAug 23 · 09:05D. Khavanskyi45121111113M. Khalenko32149901
WAug 1 · 09:20D. Khavanskyi50111117113M. Khalenko40571991
LJul 31 · 20:20D. Khavanskyi2510870M. Khalenko341211113
D. Khavanskyi10
WSep 20 · 10:05D. Khavanskyi2.6331111113O. Mytsyk1.44112771WSep 20 · 07:35D. Khavanskyi1.831111113V. Stukalov1.837740LSep 20 · 05:35D. Khavanskyi1.67912612102S. Semenets2.1011101110123WSep 19 · 12:20O. Stopin2.10911116132D. Khavanskyi1.67113511153WSep 19 · 11:20V. Varchenko1.6111550D. Khavanskyi2.201311113WSep 19 · 09:50V. Mykhalchenko1.446870D. Khavanskyi2.631111113WSep 19 · 07:50V. Kucheriavyi1.4464110D. Khavanskyi2.631111133LSep 19 · 05:50V. Stukalov1.911111133D. Khavanskyi1.8085110LSep 16 · 12:20V. Kondratenko1.6711916123D. Khavanskyi2.1041114101WSep 16 · 11:20S. Hovorunets1.5381211982D. Khavanskyi2.381110311113
M. Khalenko10
LSep 20 · 10:35S. Semenets2.25114411123M. Khalenko1.57811115102WSep 20 · 07:05O. Mytsyk1.7378111142M. Khalenko2.00111189113LSep 20 · 05:05V. Mukhin1.9111211113M. Khalenko1.80311681WSep 13 · 12:05S. Semenets2.001111661M. Khalenko1.7381311113WSep 13 · 10:35M. Khalenko1.5061111113D. Khavanskyi2.50117541WSep 13 · 08:35V. Kucheriavyi1.61861141M. Khalenko2.2011119113WSep 13 · 06:35V. Stukalov2.209670M. Khalenko1.611111113WSep 13 · 05:35V. Varchenko2.20127981M. Khalenko1.61101111113LSep 9 · 12:05O. Mytsyk1.7311121115113M. Khalenko2.0071451752LSep 9 · 10:35M. Khalenko1.57118115102D. Khavanskyi2.25911811123
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