TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13155386
Played Sep 19Finished
Volodymyr Varchenko
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1113511511––––
Denys Khavanskyi
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:52 and never touched — 55.3% is still 55.3%
Graded at full timeVolodymyr Varchenko to win
55.3%
55.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVolodymyr Varchenko above · Denys Khavanskyi below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Point 56 set 3, 5-11 — our read held Volodymyr Varchenko at 55.3%
56 points played in total.
H2H Volodymyr Varchenko 4–3 Denys Khavanskyi Denys Khavanskyi has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:52What took a side1 for · 1 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Varchenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-3 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Varchenko 1166 vs Khavanskyi 1223
Khavanskyi
Correct
both rated, 56 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Varchenko 60% vs Khavanskyi 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Varchenko 50% vs Khavanskyi 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Varchenko -2 · Khavanskyi +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Slight lean (leans Varchenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Khavanskyi form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVarchenko 1.61 / Khavanskyi 2.20
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Varchenko)-2.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13155386
Varchenko1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite48% won 22 of 46
Up 2–0, closes it75% 12 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it64% 18 of 28
Khavanskyi2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 22 of 56
Down 0–1, comes back19% 6 of 31
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 20
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeVarchenko4wins
AwayKhavanskyi3wins
1 of 7 to a deciderVarchenko leads 4–3, and 1 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVarchenko100%4 of 4
AwayKhavanskyi100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Varchenko4Khavanskyi3n = 7Varchenko took 4 of 7
S2Varchenko5Khavanskyi2n = 7Varchenko took 5 of 7
S3Varchenko4Khavanskyi3n = 7Varchenko took 4 of 7
S4Varchenko0Khavanskyi3n = 3Khavanskyi took 3 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home343%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away229%
0–3Straight, away114%
These 7 meetings
MetricVarchenkoKhavanskyiV − KBasisWins43+1in 7 meetingsFirst set43+1of 7Avg pointsper match33.330.4+2.9per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVarchenkoKhavanskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime102 / 228 vs 160 / 31644.7%50.6%102 / 228 vs 160 / 316Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.335.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VarchenkoVarchenko 1.61/Khavanskyi 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.3%
Varchenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Khavanskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WSep 13 · 09:05V. Varchenko331111113D. Khavanskyi134540
WAug 23 · 09:35V. Varchenko331111113D. Khavanskyi238960
LDec 20 · 08:20V. Varchenko379111161D. Khavanskyi4311138113
LDec 19 · 22:50V. Varchenko32611871D. Khavanskyi4111811113
WDec 13 · 08:35V. Varchenko341211113D. Khavanskyi2010910
LDec 2 · 12:40V. Varchenko2349100D. Khavanskyi341111123
WAug 23 · 05:35V. Varchenko41111135113D. Khavanskyi3965111162
V. Varchenko10
WSep 19 · 12:50V. Kucheriavyi1.6771040V. Varchenko2.101112113LSep 19 · 09:20O. Stopin1.831111113V. Varchenko1.836880LSep 19 · 07:20V. Stukalov2.38116913113V. Varchenko1.53911111152WSep 19 · 06:20V. Mykhalchenko3.2512520V. Varchenko1.331411113WSep 13 · 11:05V. Stukalov1.8361170V. Varchenko1.831113113WSep 13 · 10:05V. Varchenko2.63441211133S. Semenets1.441111104112WSep 13 · 09:05V. Varchenko1.911111113D. Khavanskyi1.804540WSep 13 · 07:35V. Varchenko2.381191311113V. Kucheriavyi1.53411111382LSep 13 · 05:35V. Varchenko2.20127981M. Khalenko1.61101111113LSep 8 · 18:30V. Varchenko2.20117114102Y. Korotin1.61511611123
D. Khavanskyi10
WSep 19 · 12:20O. Stopin2.10911116132D. Khavanskyi1.67113511153WSep 19 · 09:50V. Mykhalchenko1.446870D. Khavanskyi2.631111113WSep 19 · 07:50V. Kucheriavyi1.4464110D. Khavanskyi2.631111133LSep 19 · 05:50V. Stukalov1.911111133D. Khavanskyi1.8085110LSep 16 · 12:20V. Kondratenko1.6711916123D. Khavanskyi2.1041114101WSep 16 · 11:20S. Hovorunets1.5381211982D. Khavanskyi2.381110311113LSep 16 · 09:50V. Stukalov2.101113113D. Khavanskyi1.6751140WSep 16 · 07:50S. Semenets2.001181041D. Khavanskyi1.7391112113WSep 16 · 05:50Y. Korotin1.831351181D. Khavanskyi1.8315116113LSep 13 · 09:05V. Varchenko1.911111113D. Khavanskyi1.804540
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