TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13136778
Played Sep 16Finished
Yevhenii Korotin
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1315511116811––
Denys Khavanskyi
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:24 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeYevhenii Korotin to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingYevhenii Korotin above · Denys Khavanskyi below
Set 1 · 13-15
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 80 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Yevhenii Korotin at 54.0%
80 points played in total.
H2H Yevhenii Korotin 3–5 Denys Khavanskyi Yevhenii Korotin has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 19h before this match
Korotin beat Khavanskyi 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:24What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Khavanskyi
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-5 in 8
Khavanskyi
Correct
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Korotin 1275 vs Khavanskyi 1188
Korotin
Wrong
both rated, 88 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Korotin 60% vs Khavanskyi 40%
Korotin
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Korotin 50% vs Khavanskyi 20%
Korotin
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Korotin +1 · Khavanskyi -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Korotin)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Khavanskyi form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKorotin 1.83 / Khavanskyi 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Korotin)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13136778
Korotin1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Khavanskyi1.83
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeKorotin3wins
AwayKhavanskyi5wins
3 of 8 to a deciderKhavanskyi leads 5–3, and 3 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKorotin50%2 of 4
AwayKhavanskyi75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Korotin4Khavanskyi4n = 8split evenly
S2Korotin5Khavanskyi3n = 8Korotin took 5 of 8
S3Korotin2Khavanskyi6n = 8Khavanskyi took 6 of 8
S4Korotin1Khavanskyi3n = 4Khavanskyi took 3 of 4
S5Korotin1Khavanskyi2n = 3Khavanskyi took 2 of 3
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home113%
3–1Four sets, home113%
3–2Decider, home113%
2–3Decider, away225%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away338%
These 8 meetings
MetricKorotinKhavanskyiKorotin − KhavanskyiBasisWins35−2in 8 meetingsFirst set440of 8Avg pointsper match36.838.6−1.8per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKorotinKhavanskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime102 / 208 vs 155 / 30849%50.3%102 / 208 vs 155 / 308Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.335.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KorotinKorotin 1.83/Khavanskyi 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Korotin · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Khavanskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WSep 15 · 10:40Y. Korotin341111123D. Khavanskyi2376100
LSep 4 · 16:00Y. Korotin203980D. Khavanskyi331111113
LAug 23 · 08:05Y. Korotin2310760D. Khavanskyi341211113
LAug 26 · 15:40Y. Korotin2449110D. Khavanskyi351111133
WJul 29 · 13:40Y. Korotin4111117123D. Khavanskyi389811101
WJul 22 · 16:10Y. Korotin518111110113D. Khavanskyi4011391252
LJun 17 · 16:10Y. Korotin45111110942D. Khavanskyi49961211113
LMay 27 · 11:40Y. Korotin561411147102D. Khavanskyi571261611123
Y. Korotin10
WSep 15 · 16:40Y. Korotin1.44111178133O. Miklukha2.63881111112LSep 15 · 15:10Y. Korotin1.911051171V. Stukalov1.8012117113WSep 15 · 13:40Y. Korotin2.75138911123S. Hovorunets1.401111118102LSep 15 · 12:10Y. Korotin1.8361111942S. Semenets1.83119911113WSep 15 · 10:40Y. Korotin2.751111123D. Khavanskyi1.4076100WSep 8 · 18:30V. Varchenko2.20117114102Y. Korotin1.61511611123LSep 8 · 17:30S. Semenets1.91119911113Y. Korotin1.8051111692WSep 8 · 16:00V. Stukalov1.671111511102Y. Korotin2.10661113123LSep 8 · 14:00S. Hovorunets1.571111113Y. Korotin2.253640LSep 8 · 12:00V. Mukhin2.25916116113Y. Korotin1.57111431182
D. Khavanskyi10
LSep 15 · 17:10V. Stukalov2.10118113163D. Khavanskyi1.67811911142WSep 15 · 16:10S. Semenets1.8371111972D. Khavanskyi1.83111711113WSep 15 · 14:40O. Miklukha1.5715911101D. Khavanskyi2.2517116123LSep 15 · 12:40S. Hovorunets1.611111113D. Khavanskyi2.208680LSep 15 · 10:40Y. Korotin2.751111123D. Khavanskyi1.4076100LSep 13 · 11:35V. Kucheriavyi1.441211113D. Khavanskyi2.6310830LSep 13 · 10:35M. Khalenko1.5061111113D. Khavanskyi2.50117541LSep 13 · 09:05V. Varchenko1.911111113D. Khavanskyi1.804540LSep 13 · 07:05S. Semenets2.201111113D. Khavanskyi1.616470LSep 13 · 05:05V. Stukalov2.50981111113D. Khavanskyi1.5011114592
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