TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13122531
Played Sep 13Finished
Mykhailo Khalenko
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
611117115114––
Denys Khavanskyi
Away
2.50
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:42 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDenys Khavanskyi to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMykhailo Khalenko above · Denys Khavanskyi below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-4
Point 66 set 4, 11-4 — our read held Denys Khavanskyi at 54.0%
66 points played in total.
H2H Mykhailo Khalenko 7–10 Denys Khavanskyi Mykhailo Khalenko has won 7 of their 17 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:42What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Khalenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-10 in 17
Khavanskyi
Wrong
gap of 3 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Khalenko 1274 vs Khavanskyi 1204
Khalenko
Correct
both rated, 70 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Khalenko 60% vs Khavanskyi 0%
Khalenko
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Khalenko 50% vs Khavanskyi 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Khalenko +3 · Khavanskyi -5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Khalenko) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Khavanskyi form (0%) is below what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKhalenko 1.50 / Khavanskyi 2.50
Signal prob.63% / 37%
Edge (Khalenko)+0.8pp
Setka Cup · #13122531
Khalenko1.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite74% won 46 of 62
Up 2–0, closes it96% 24 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it90% 34 of 38
Khavanskyi2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog40% won 20 of 50
Down 0–1, comes back21% 6 of 28
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 18
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKhalenko3wins
AwayKhavanskyi7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKhavanskyi leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKhalenko40%2 of 5
AwayKhavanskyi80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Khalenko5Khavanskyi5n = 10split evenly
S2Khalenko4Khavanskyi6n = 10Khavanskyi took 6 of 10
S3Khalenko5Khavanskyi5n = 10split evenly
S4Khalenko2Khavanskyi4n = 6Khavanskyi took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKhalenkoKhavanskyiKhalenko − KhavanskyiBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match35.436.8−1.4per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKhalenkoKhavanskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime187 / 369 vs 154 / 30250.7%51%187 / 369 vs 154 / 302Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.435.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KhalenkoKhalenko 1.50/Khavanskyi 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.3%
Khalenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Khalenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 9 · 10:35M. Khalenko45118115102D. Khavanskyi51911811123
WSep 4 · 17:30M. Khalenko4291111113D. Khavanskyi29116931
WSep 3 · 05:05M. Khalenko331111113D. Khavanskyi146260
LSep 6 · 10:35M. Khalenko2761380D. Khavanskyi371115113
LAug 30 · 10:35M. Khalenko4181141172D. Khavanskyi44115116113
LAug 26 · 11:40M. Khalenko33118591D. Khavanskyi4071111113
LAug 23 · 09:05M. Khalenko32149901D. Khavanskyi45121111113
LAug 1 · 09:20M. Khalenko40571991D. Khavanskyi50111117113
WJul 31 · 20:20M. Khalenko341211113D. Khavanskyi2510870
LJul 29 · 17:40M. Khalenko279990D. Khavanskyi331111113
M. Khalenko10
WSep 13 · 08:35V. Kucheriavyi1.61861141M. Khalenko2.2011119113WSep 13 · 06:35V. Stukalov2.209670M. Khalenko1.611111113WSep 13 · 05:35V. Varchenko2.20127981M. Khalenko1.61101111113LSep 9 · 12:05O. Mytsyk1.7311121115113M. Khalenko2.0071451752LSep 9 · 10:35M. Khalenko1.57118115102D. Khavanskyi2.25911811123LSep 9 · 08:35S. Semenets2.2511911113M. Khalenko1.57711541LSep 9 · 06:35V. Mukhin2.10311411113M. Khalenko1.6711711972LSep 9 · 05:35S. Hovorunets2.00741111123M. Khalenko1.73111199102WSep 4 · 19:00S. Semenets2.25811891M. Khalenko1.5711511113WSep 4 · 17:30M. Khalenko2.1091111113D. Khavanskyi1.67116931
D. Khavanskyi10
LSep 13 · 09:05V. Varchenko1.911111113D. Khavanskyi1.804540LSep 13 · 07:05S. Semenets2.201111113D. Khavanskyi1.616470LSep 13 · 05:05V. Stukalov2.50981111113D. Khavanskyi1.5011114592LSep 11 · 12:05O. Mytsyk1.571111113D. Khavanskyi2.253770LSep 11 · 10:35D. Khavanskyi2.2598100V. Korniichuk1.571111123WSep 11 · 08:35K. Riazanovskyi1.6771211992D. Khavanskyi2.101110811113LSep 11 · 06:35O. Miklukha2.0011811113D. Khavanskyi1.73911271WSep 11 · 05:35V. Stukalov2.63411118102D. Khavanskyi1.44115811123WSep 9 · 10:35M. Khalenko1.57118115102D. Khavanskyi2.25911811123LSep 4 · 17:30M. Khalenko2.1091111113D. Khavanskyi1.67116931
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