TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 21Finished
Sergii Skhabitskiy
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1311116118––––
Maksym Stetsenko
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:08 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMaksym Stetsenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingSergii Skhabitskiy above · Maksym Stetsenko below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 60 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Maksym Stetsenko at 54.0%
60 points played in total.
H2H Sergii Skhabitskiy 15–14 Maksym Stetsenko Maksym Stetsenko has won 14 of their 29 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:08What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Stetsenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-14 in 29
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skhabitskiy 1401 vs Stetsenko 1368
Skhabitskiy
Correct
both rated, 34 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skhabitskiy 80% vs Stetsenko 40%
Skhabitskiy
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skhabitskiy 70% vs Stetsenko 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Skhabitskiy -1 · Stetsenko -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Stetsenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stetsenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkhabitskiy 2.00 / Stetsenko 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Stetsenko)+0.3pp
Setka Cup · #13166167
Skhabitskiy2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog40% won 93 of 231
Down 0–1, comes back21% 24 of 114
Down 0–2, comes back7% 5 of 70
Stetsenko1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite68% won 117 of 171
Up 2–0, closes it99% 69 of 70
Up 1–0, closes it88% 90 of 102
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSkhabitskiy3wins
AwayStetsenko7wins
6 of 10 to a deciderStetsenko leads 7–3, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkhabitskiy25%1 of 4
AwayStetsenko66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skhabitskiy4Stetsenko6n = 10Stetsenko took 6 of 10
S2Skhabitskiy5Stetsenko5n = 10split evenly
S3Skhabitskiy5Stetsenko5n = 10split evenly
S4Skhabitskiy3Stetsenko6n = 9Stetsenko took 6 of 9
S5Skhabitskiy2Stetsenko4n = 6Stetsenko took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSkhabitskiyStetsenkoSkhabitskiy − StetsenkoBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match39.642.3−2.7per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkhabitskiyStetsenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime475 / 1069 vs 442 / 85144.4%51.9%475 / 1069 vs 442 / 851Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.936.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StetsenkoSkhabitskiy 2.00/Stetsenko 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Stetsenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Skhabitskiy won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 19 · 10:30S. Skhabitskiy1910540M. Stetsenko341211113
LSep 17 · 11:50S. Skhabitskiy3921111962M. Stetsenko49118811113
LSep 14 · 09:20S. Skhabitskiy41111141052M. Stetsenko51891112113
LAug 30 · 17:30S. Skhabitskiy31119831M. Stetsenko4071111113
WAug 27 · 11:50S. Skhabitskiy50711118133M. Stetsenko45119311112
LAug 24 · 06:20S. Skhabitskiy4059111142M. Stetsenko47111195113
WAug 23 · 17:40S. Skhabitskiy4112711113M. Stetsenko311011551
WAug 20 · 05:50S. Skhabitskiy45481111113M. Stetsenko3511114362
LAug 19 · 15:00S. Skhabitskiy4811119982M. Stetsenko47951111113
LAug 17 · 06:20S. Skhabitskiy4213111081M. Stetsenko4415612113
S. Skhabitskiy10
LSep 21 · 08:35O. Ovsiienko1.831111113S. Skhabitskiy1.831140WSep 21 · 06:35V. Mukhin4.336780S. Skhabitskiy1.201111113WSep 21 · 05:35D. Ponomarenko2.38101311492S. Skhabitskiy1.531211611113WSep 20 · 18:00V. Nechai2.00741291S. Skhabitskiy1.73111110113WSep 20 · 17:00S. Skhabitskiy1.731114113D. Ponomarenko2.0081250LSep 20 · 16:00S. Skhabitskiy1.73441131O. Ovsiienko2.0011119113WSep 20 · 14:30S. Skhabitskiy2.0011511333V. Smyk1.7341191122WSep 20 · 12:30S. Skhabitskiy2.501211113O. Lipeiko1.5010890LSep 19 · 10:30M. Stetsenko1.801211113S. Skhabitskiy1.9110540WSep 19 · 09:30S. Skhabitskiy2.0051111113V. Melnykov1.73117841
M. Stetsenko10
LSep 21 · 09:05D. Ponomarenko1.7311123113M. Stetsenko2.006101161LSep 21 · 07:05O. Mytsyk2.501111113M. Stetsenko1.509840WSep 21 · 05:05V. Mukhin3.75117111032M. Stetsenko1.25611912113WSep 19 · 10:30M. Stetsenko1.801211113S. Skhabitskiy1.9110540LSep 19 · 09:00M. Stetsenko3.257119101K. Klymenko1.3311511123WSep 19 · 07:30M. Stetsenko1.531212123V. Melnykov2.381010100WSep 19 · 06:00M. Stetsenko1.2511811113S. Semenets3.75711731LSep 19 · 04:30M. Stetsenko1.83116471O. Ovsiienko1.8391111113WSep 17 · 11:50S. Skhabitskiy1.8321111962M. Stetsenko1.83118811113WSep 17 · 10:50M. Stetsenko1.50611115113O. Mytsyk2.5011861192
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