TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Ondrej Kus
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
711118119118––
Vladislav Reska
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:13 and never touched — 58.5% is still 58.5%
Graded at full timeVladislav Reska to win
58.5%
58.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOndrej Kus above · Vladislav Reska below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 76 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Vladislav Reska at 58.5%
76 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Kus 14–12 Vladislav Reska Vladislav Reska has won 12 of their 26 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Kus beat Reska 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:13What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Reska
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-12 in 26
Kus
Correct
gap of 2 in 26, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kus 1402 vs Reska 1451
Reska
Wrong
both rated, 48 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kus 60% vs Reska 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kus 60% vs Reska 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kus -1 · Reska +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Reska)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kus form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKus 2.20 / Reska 1.61
Signal prob.42% / 59%
Edge (Reska)+0.8pp
TT Cup · #13165829
Kus2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog45% won 69 of 155
Down 0–1, comes back24% 18 of 75
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 46
Reska1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite55% won 67 of 123
Up 2–0, closes it97% 32 of 33
Up 1–0, closes it79% 49 of 62
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKus6wins
AwayReska4wins
1 of 10 to a deciderKus leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKus100%5 of 5
AwayReska80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kus5Reska5n = 10split evenly
S2Kus7Reska3n = 10Kus took 7 of 10
S3Kus4Reska6n = 10Reska took 6 of 10
S4Kus4Reska0n = 4Kus took 4 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricKusReskaK − RBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match34.730.6+4.1per matchSweeps3303–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKusReskaBasisWin rate · lifetime265 / 535 vs 254 / 50249.5%50.6%265 / 535 vs 254 / 502Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.437.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ReskaKus 2.20/Reska 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.5%
Reska · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 20 · 14:10O. Kus4211118123V. Reska358611101
WAug 29 · 06:10O. Kus46111212113V. Reska409101471
WAug 28 · 16:15O. Kus43101111113V. Reska19123221
LAug 18 · 21:10O. Kus2786130V. Reska371111153
LAug 18 · 18:40O. Kus228860V. Reska331111113
LAug 17 · 18:45O. Kus4591161182V. Reska44116115113
WAug 4 · 19:15O. Kus331111113V. Reska205870
LJul 31 · 13:45O. Kus239590V. Reska331111113
WJul 5 · 13:10O. Kus331111113V. Reska228860
WJul 5 · 11:40O. Kus331111113V. Reska237880
O. Kus10
LSep 20 · 16:10O. Kus1.731159101P. Jokiel2.0061111123WSep 20 · 14:40A. Drozd1.6711128592O. Kus2.109101111113WSep 20 · 14:10V. Reska1.578611101O. Kus2.2511118123LSep 16 · 21:05O. Kus2.046890K. Zeman1.661111113WSep 16 · 19:40K. Zeman1.53911841O. Kus2.3811511113WSep 16 · 19:10J. Vanous1.8064110O. Kus1.911111133WSep 16 · 18:10O. Kus1.8011711113P. Jokiel1.91811961WSep 14 · 20:48K. Zeman1.445960O. Kus2.631111113LSep 14 · 19:45K. Zeman1.4481111113O. Kus2.63118891LSep 14 · 19:15P. Jokiel2.00911118113O. Kus1.7311971192
V. Reska10
WSep 20 · 15:40A. Drozd2.101011771V. Reska1.6712511113WSep 20 · 15:10P. Jokiel2.381011721V. Reska1.5312511113LSep 20 · 14:10V. Reska1.578611101O. Kus2.2511118123LSep 18 · 20:38V. Reska1.5777100J. Przybyla2.251111123WSep 18 · 20:15J. Przybyla2.0011460V. Reska1.731311113LSep 18 · 19:15V. Reska2.00118351T. Molin1.7371111113LSep 18 · 17:45D. Branny1.731311123V. Reska2.00118100LSep 17 · 21:20D. Branny1.8391111113V. Reska1.83117861WSep 17 · 20:15D. Osvald1.67712891V. Reska2.10111011113WSep 17 · 19:15V. Reska1.8011811113J. Przybyla1.91311481
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.