TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Ondrej Kus
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1165119111012––
Patrik Jokiel
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 16Form at publish
0–10Last 10Lost last 16
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:42 and never touched — 71.1% is still 71.1%
Graded at full timeOndrej Kus to win
71.1%
71.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOndrej Kus above · Patrik Jokiel below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 75 set 4, 10-12 — our read held Ondrej Kus at 71.1%
75 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Kus 22–15 Patrik Jokiel Patrik Jokiel has won 15 of their 37 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:42What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Kus
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
22-15 in 37
Kus
Wrong
gap of 7 in 37, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kus 1434 vs Jokiel 1255
Kus
Wrong
both rated, 179 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kus 80% vs Jokiel 0%
Kus
Wrong
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kus 60% vs Jokiel 0%
Kus
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kus +2 · Jokiel -16
Jokiel
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Kus) · live re-read · sealed at 71% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jokiel form (0%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKus 1.73 / Jokiel 2.00
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Kus)+3.2pp
TT Cup · #13164518
Kus1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite53% won 38 of 72
Up 2–0, closes it100% 17 of 17
Up 1–0, closes it58% 25 of 43
Jokiel2.00
0%won 0 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 16
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog47% won 73 of 157
Down 0–1, comes back36% 26 of 73
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 24
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKus7wins
AwayJokiel3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKus leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKus60%3 of 5
AwayJokiel20%1 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kus5Jokiel5n = 10split evenly
S2Kus5Jokiel5n = 10split evenly
S3Kus7Jokiel3n = 10Kus took 7 of 10
S4Kus7Jokiel0n = 7Kus took 7 of 7
S5Kus1Jokiel2n = 3Jokiel took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKusJokielK − JBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.934.1+4.8per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKusJokielBasisWin rate · lifetime265 / 534 vs 203 / 44749.6%45.4%265 / 534 vs 203 / 447Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.438.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KusKus 1.73/Jokiel 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.9%
Kus · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Jokiel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 16 · 18:10O. Kus4011711113P. Jokiel34811961
LSep 14 · 19:15O. Kus4711971192P. Jokiel50911118113
WSep 13 · 11:15O. Kus4291111113P. Jokiel35119781
LAug 27 · 13:40O. Kus225980P. Jokiel331111113
LAug 17 · 15:45O. Kus4311691162P. Jokiel45511117113
WJul 26 · 17:40O. Kus3741111113P. Jokiel28115841
WJul 6 · 13:10O. Kus44111111113P. Jokiel31131981
WJul 6 · 11:15O. Kus463101111113P. Jokiel3911124572
WJul 5 · 10:10O. Kus331111113P. Jokiel227780
WJul 3 · 17:15O. Kus351111133P. Jokiel2467110
O. Kus10
WSep 20 · 17:15O. Kus2.2071111113V. Reska1.61118981WSep 20 · 14:40A. Drozd1.6711128592O. Kus2.109101111113WSep 20 · 14:10V. Reska1.578611101O. Kus2.2511118123LSep 16 · 21:05O. Kus2.046890K. Zeman1.661111113WSep 16 · 19:40K. Zeman1.53911841O. Kus2.3811511113WSep 16 · 19:10J. Vanous1.8064110O. Kus1.911111133WSep 16 · 18:10O. Kus1.8011711113P. Jokiel1.91811961WSep 14 · 20:48K. Zeman1.445960O. Kus2.631111113LSep 14 · 19:45K. Zeman1.4481111113O. Kus2.63118891LSep 14 · 19:15P. Jokiel2.00911118113O. Kus1.7311971192
P. Jokiel10
WSep 20 · 16:44A. Drozd1.83116122112P. Jokiel1.836111011133LSep 20 · 15:10P. Jokiel2.381011721V. Reska1.5312511113LSep 20 · 13:40A. Drozd1.40514119113P. Jokiel2.75111291132LSep 17 · 20:40M. Dolezal1.8011811113P. Jokiel1.91311431LSep 17 · 19:40P. Jokiel2.107101151T. Ogrocki1.6711127113LSep 17 · 18:40P. Jokiel1.61751131R. Benesz2.2011119113LSep 17 · 17:40P. Jokiel1.73381261M. Dolezal2.00111110113LSep 17 · 08:45J. Matus1.8011811113P. Jokiel1.91411761LSep 16 · 18:10O. Kus1.8011711113P. Jokiel1.91811961WSep 14 · 19:15P. Jokiel2.00911118113O. Kus1.7311971192
Upcoming Matches
O. Kus
Nothing scheduled
P. Jokiel
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