TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Ales Drozd
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1191210811511911
Ondrej Kus
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:01 and never touched — 56.2% is still 56.2%
Graded at full timeAles Drozd to win
56.2%
56.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAles Drozd above · Ondrej Kus below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 5-7
Point 89 set 5, 5-7 — our read held Ales Drozd at 56.2%
89 points drawn · the score is 8 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Ales Drozd 7–9 Ondrej Kus Ales Drozd has won 7 of their 16 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:01What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Drozd
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-9 in 16
Kus
Correct
gap of 2 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Drozd 1460 vs Kus 1411
Drozd
Wrong
both rated, 48 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Drozd 80% vs Kus 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Drozd 60% vs Kus 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Drozd +2 · Kus +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Drozd)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kus form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDrozd 1.67 / Kus 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Drozd)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13164346
Drozd1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite53% won 45 of 85
Up 2–0, closes it96% 27 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it71% 37 of 52
Kus2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog45% won 69 of 155
Down 0–1, comes back24% 18 of 75
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDrozd5wins
AwayKus5wins
Level at 5–5.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDrozd80%4 of 5
AwayKus80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Drozd5Kus5n = 10split evenly
S2Drozd6Kus4n = 10Drozd took 6 of 10
S3Drozd5Kus5n = 10split evenly
S4Drozd1Kus2n = 3Kus took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricDrozdKusD − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match30.230.4−0.2per matchSweeps43+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDrozdKusBasisWin rate · lifetime139 / 271 vs 264 / 53351.3%49.5%139 / 271 vs 264 / 533Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.636.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DrozdDrozd 1.67/Kus 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.2%
Drozd · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 13 · 11:45A. Drozd184860O. Kus331111113
LAug 25 · 08:38A. Drozd29114771O. Kus3961111113
WAug 25 · 08:15A. Drozd331111113O. Kus206770
WAug 24 · 12:15A. Drozd351113113O. Kus2791170
WAug 16 · 16:10A. Drozd4291111113O. Kus32116781
LJul 6 · 11:45A. Drozd195680O. Kus331111113
WJun 23 · 17:25A. Drozd331111113O. Kus259790
LJun 23 · 15:10A. Drozd34711881O. Kus4111811113
WMay 27 · 09:05A. Drozd331111113O. Kus218580
LMay 27 · 06:10A. Drozd269890O. Kus331111113
A. Drozd10
WSep 20 · 13:40A. Drozd1.40514119113P. Jokiel2.75111291132WSep 19 · 17:15M. Janik2.259780A. Drozd1.571111113LSep 19 · 15:45A. Drozd1.57119591M. Janik2.2581111113WSep 19 · 14:45A. Drozd2.101211113O. Skvor1.6710980WSep 19 · 13:45A. Drozd1.57114116143T. Ogrocki2.25511911122LSep 14 · 17:14O. Skvor1.831211113A. Drozd1.8310290LSep 14 · 15:45A. Drozd1.615580O. Skvor2.201111113WSep 14 · 14:45A. Drozd1.801111113K. Przeczek1.919770WSep 14 · 13:45A. Drozd1.57811412113T. Ogrocki2.25114111052LSep 13 · 12:40A. Drozd1.6291111692P. Jokiel2.15118611113
O. Kus10
WSep 20 · 14:10V. Reska1.578611101O. Kus2.2511118123LSep 16 · 21:05O. Kus2.046890K. Zeman1.661111113WSep 16 · 19:40K. Zeman1.53911841O. Kus2.3811511113WSep 16 · 19:10J. Vanous1.8064110O. Kus1.911111133WSep 16 · 18:10O. Kus1.8011711113P. Jokiel1.91811961WSep 14 · 20:48K. Zeman1.445960O. Kus2.631111113LSep 14 · 19:45K. Zeman1.4481111113O. Kus2.63118891LSep 14 · 19:15P. Jokiel2.00911118113O. Kus1.7311971192LSep 14 · 18:15O. Kus2.501681161O. Skvor1.5018117113LSep 13 · 16:46O. Kus1.80115471F. Theodor1.9051111113
Upcoming Matches
A. Drozd
Nothing scheduled
O. Kus
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