TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Vladislav Reska
Home
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
8116111181012––
Ondrej Kus
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:42 and never touched — 59.8% is still 59.8%
Graded at full timeOndrej Kus to win
59.8%
59.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVladislav Reska above · Ondrej Kus below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 77 set 4, 10-12 — our read held Ondrej Kus at 59.8%
77 points played in total.
H2H Vladislav Reska 12–13 Ondrej Kus Vladislav Reska has won 12 of their 25 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:42What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Reska
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-13 in 25
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Reska 1465 vs Kus 1391
Reska
Wrong
both rated, 73 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Reska 20% vs Kus 80%
Kus
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Reska 40% vs Kus 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Reska -1 · Kus -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Reska) · live re-read · sealed at 40% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kus form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsReska 1.57 / Kus 2.25
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Reska)+0.8pp
TT Cup · #13163535
Reska1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 18)
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite55% won 67 of 123
Up 2–0, closes it97% 32 of 33
Up 1–0, closes it79% 49 of 62
Kus2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 4 days ago (Sep 16)
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog45% won 69 of 155
Down 0–1, comes back24% 18 of 75
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeReska5wins
AwayKus5wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeReska80%4 of 5
AwayKus80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Reska5Kus5n = 10split evenly
S2Reska4Kus6n = 10Kus took 6 of 10
S3Reska6Kus4n = 10Reska took 6 of 10
S4Reska1Kus3n = 4Kus took 3 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricReskaKusR − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match31.133.5−2.4per matchSweeps3303–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricReskaKusBasisWin rate · lifetime252 / 499 vs 264 / 53250.5%49.6%252 / 499 vs 264 / 532Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.436.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ReskaReska 1.57/Kus 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59.7%
Reska · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 29 · 06:10V. Reska409101471O. Kus46111212113
LAug 28 · 16:15V. Reska19123221O. Kus43101111113
WAug 18 · 21:10V. Reska371111153O. Kus2786130
WAug 18 · 18:40V. Reska331111113O. Kus228860
WAug 17 · 18:45V. Reska44116115113O. Kus4591161182
LAug 4 · 19:15V. Reska205870O. Kus331111113
WJul 31 · 13:45V. Reska331111113O. Kus239590
LJul 5 · 13:10V. Reska228860O. Kus331111113
LJul 5 · 11:40V. Reska237880O. Kus331111113
WJun 3 · 18:40V. Reska4071111113O. Kus30116761
V. Reska10
WSep 20 · 15:40A. Drozd2.101011771V. Reska1.6712511113WSep 20 · 15:10P. Jokiel2.381011721V. Reska1.5312511113LSep 18 · 20:38V. Reska1.5777100J. Przybyla2.251111123WSep 18 · 20:15J. Przybyla2.0011460V. Reska1.731311113LSep 18 · 19:15V. Reska2.00118351T. Molin1.7371111113LSep 18 · 17:45D. Branny1.731311123V. Reska2.00118100LSep 17 · 21:20D. Branny1.8391111113V. Reska1.83117861WSep 17 · 20:15D. Osvald1.67712891V. Reska2.10111011113WSep 17 · 19:15V. Reska1.8011811113J. Przybyla1.91311481LSep 17 · 17:45D. Branny1.73117119123V. Reska2.00311611102
O. Kus10
WSep 20 · 14:40A. Drozd1.6711128592O. Kus2.109101111113LSep 16 · 21:05O. Kus2.046890K. Zeman1.661111113WSep 16 · 19:40K. Zeman1.53911841O. Kus2.3811511113WSep 16 · 19:10J. Vanous1.8064110O. Kus1.911111133WSep 16 · 18:10O. Kus1.8011711113P. Jokiel1.91811961WSep 14 · 20:48K. Zeman1.445960O. Kus2.631111113LSep 14 · 19:45K. Zeman1.4481111113O. Kus2.63118891LSep 14 · 19:15P. Jokiel2.00911118113O. Kus1.7311971192LSep 14 · 18:15O. Kus2.501681161O. Skvor1.5018117113LSep 13 · 16:46O. Kus1.80115471F. Theodor1.9051111113
Upcoming Matches
V. Reska
Nothing scheduled
O. Kus
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