TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Ales Drozd
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1012115711711––
Vladislav Reska
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:32 and never touched — 57.7% is still 57.7%
Graded at full timeVladislav Reska to win
57.7%
57.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAles Drozd above · Vladislav Reska below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 74 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Vladislav Reska at 57.7%
74 points played in total.
H2H Ales Drozd 4–4 Vladislav Reska Dead even across their 8 meetings.
Last 8 · 4–4Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:32What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Reska
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-4 in 8
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Drozd 1436 vs Reska 1442
Reska
Correct
both rated, 5 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Drozd 60% vs Reska 40%
Drozd
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Drozd 60% vs Reska 40%
Drozd
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Drozd -1 · Reska +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Reska) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Reska form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDrozd 2.10 / Reska 1.67
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Reska)-1.8pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13164476
Drozd2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog49% won 26 of 53
Down 0–1, comes back31% 9 of 29
Down 0–2, comes back9% 1 of 11
Reska1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite55% won 67 of 123
Up 2–0, closes it97% 32 of 33
Up 1–0, closes it79% 49 of 62
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeDrozd4wins
AwayReska4wins
3 of 8 to a deciderLevel at 4–4, and 3 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDrozdn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayReska66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Drozd2Reska6n = 8Reska took 6 of 8
S2Drozd4Reska4n = 8split evenly
S3Drozd4Reska4n = 8split evenly
S4Drozd3Reska3n = 6split evenly
S5Drozd2Reska1n = 3Drozd took 2 of 3
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home225%
3–2Decider, home225%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away113%
0–3Straight, away225%
These 8 meetings
MetricDrozdReskaD − RBasisWins440in 8 meetingsFirst set26−4of 8Avg pointsper match37.239.2−2.0per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDrozdReskaBasisWin rate · lifetime139 / 272 vs 253 / 50151.1%50.5%139 / 272 vs 253 / 501Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.637.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ReskaDrozd 2.10/Reska 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Reska · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Reska won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LAug 12 · 14:45A. Drozd238960V. Reska331111113
LJul 23 · 14:40A. Drozd4698111172V. Reska45111166113
LJul 20 · 15:15A. Drozd31812291V. Reska43111011113
WJul 19 · 11:10A. Drozd3741111113V. Reska36119881
LJul 9 · 17:10A. Drozd208390V. Reska331111113
WJul 9 · 15:45A. Drozd49911117113V. Reska4711971192
WFeb 7 · 15:45A. Drozd4211119113V. Reska33771181
WDec 27 · 09:15A. Drozd50119136113V. Reska44511111162
A. Drozd10
LSep 20 · 14:40A. Drozd1.6711128592O. Kus2.109101111113WSep 19 · 17:15M. Janik2.259780A. Drozd1.571111113LSep 19 · 15:45A. Drozd1.57119591M. Janik2.2581111113WSep 19 · 14:45A. Drozd2.101211113O. Skvor1.6710980WSep 19 · 13:45A. Drozd1.57114116143T. Ogrocki2.25511911122LSep 14 · 17:14O. Skvor1.831211113A. Drozd1.8310290LSep 14 · 15:45A. Drozd1.615580O. Skvor2.201111113WSep 14 · 14:45A. Drozd1.801111113K. Przeczek1.919770WSep 14 · 13:45A. Drozd1.57811412113T. Ogrocki2.25114111052LSep 13 · 12:40A. Drozd1.6291111692P. Jokiel2.15118611113
V. Reska10
WSep 20 · 15:10P. Jokiel2.381011721V. Reska1.5312511113LSep 20 · 14:10V. Reska1.578611101O. Kus2.2511118123LSep 18 · 20:38V. Reska1.5777100J. Przybyla2.251111123WSep 18 · 20:15J. Przybyla2.0011460V. Reska1.731311113LSep 18 · 19:15V. Reska2.00118351T. Molin1.7371111113LSep 18 · 17:45D. Branny1.731311123V. Reska2.00118100LSep 17 · 21:20D. Branny1.8391111113V. Reska1.83117861WSep 17 · 20:15D. Osvald1.67712891V. Reska2.10111011113WSep 17 · 19:15V. Reska1.8011811113J. Przybyla1.91311481LSep 17 · 17:45D. Branny1.73117119123V. Reska2.00311611102
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.