TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13145307
Played Sep 17Finished
Jiri Matus
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
114811117116––
Patrik Jokiel
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 9Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 9
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:43 and never touched — 73.8% is still 73.8%
Graded at full timeJiri Matus to win
73.8%
73.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJiri Matus above · Patrik Jokiel below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 69 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Jiri Matus at 73.8%
69 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Matus 1–2 Patrik Jokiel Jiri Matus has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:43What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Matus
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Matus 1336 vs Jokiel 1279
Matus
Correct
both rated, 57 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Matus 60% vs Jokiel 0%
Matus
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Matus 40% vs Jokiel 10%
Matus
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Matus -2 · Jokiel -5
Jokiel
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Matus) · live re-read · sealed at 74% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jokiel form (0%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMatus 1.80 / Jokiel 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Matus)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13145307
Matus1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 89 of 150
Up 2–0, closes it93% 39 of 42
Up 1–0, closes it76% 62 of 82
Jokiel1.91
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 9
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog48% won 73 of 153
Down 0–1, comes back38% 26 of 69
Down 0–2, comes back9% 2 of 23
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeMatus1wins
AwayJokiel2wins
1 of 3 to a deciderJokiel leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Matus2Jokiel1n = 3Matus took 2 of 3
S2Matus2Jokiel1n = 3Matus took 2 of 3
S3Matus2Jokiel1n = 3Matus took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home133%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricMatusJokielM − JBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match40.041.0−1.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMatusJokielBasisWin rate · lifetime221 / 429 vs 203 / 44051.5%46.1%221 / 429 vs 203 / 440Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.138.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MatusMatus 1.80/Jokiel 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Matus · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Matus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WSep 17 · 05:40J. Matus371115113P. Jokiel2571350
LJun 7 · 08:10J. Matus35911871P. Jokiel4211911113
LMar 5 · 20:10J. Matus4814513792P. Jokiel5612111111113
J. Matus10
LSep 17 · 08:10J. Sindler1.7311125113J. Matus2.006101151LSep 17 · 07:10J. Matus2.25451181P. Chlad1.5711115113WSep 17 · 05:40P. Jokiel1.5771350J. Matus2.251115113WSep 15 · 08:43J. Matus1.3311611113L. Snr3.25911821WSep 15 · 08:10L. Snr2.25611971J. Matus1.5711911113LSep 15 · 07:10J. Matus1.833411101A. Strelec1.8311119123LSep 15 · 05:40I. Jemelka1.531181413113J. Matus2.38811121592LSep 14 · 09:33J. Matus1.91111071172A. Strelec1.80212115113WSep 14 · 08:10J. Matus1.838201111113P. Sturma1.83111871392LSep 14 · 06:40J. Sindler1.731011711123J. Matus2.00123117102
P. Jokiel10
LSep 17 · 07:40P. Jokiel2.2581111662P. Chlad1.57118811113LSep 17 · 06:40P. Jokiel1.838470J. Sindler1.831111113LSep 17 · 05:40P. Jokiel1.5771350J. Matus2.251115113LSep 16 · 20:34J. Vanous1.801111113P. Jokiel1.917370LSep 16 · 20:10P. Jokiel1.8010370J. Vanous1.911211113LSep 16 · 18:40K. Zeman1.91111111113P. Jokiel1.80671371LSep 16 · 18:10O. Kus1.8011711113P. Jokiel1.91811961LSep 14 · 21:18O. Skvor1.5791312113P. Jokiel2.2511111061LSep 14 · 20:15O. Skvor1.50119811113P. Jokiel2.5091111642WSep 14 · 19:15P. Jokiel2.00911118113O. Kus1.7311971192
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.