TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13143529
Played Sep 17Finished
Jiri Matus
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
411511115811––
Petr Chlad
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:16 and never touched — 60.1% is still 60.1%
Graded at full timePetr Chlad to win
60.1%
60.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJiri Matus above · Petr Chlad below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 66 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Petr Chlad at 60.1%
66 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Matus 4–13 Petr Chlad Jiri Matus has won 4 of their 17 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:16What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Chlad
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-13 in 17
Chlad
Correct
gap of 9 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Matus 1345 vs Chlad 1434
Chlad
Correct
both rated, 89 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Matus 60% vs Chlad 20%
Matus
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Matus 60% vs Chlad 30%
Matus
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Matus +3 · Chlad -2
Matus
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Chlad)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chlad form (20%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMatus 2.25 / Chlad 1.57
Signal prob.40% / 61%
Edge (Chlad)+1.6pp
TT Cup · #13143529
Matus2.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog47% won 23 of 49
Down 0–1, comes back30% 7 of 23
Down 0–2, comes back18% 2 of 11
Chlad1.57
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite48% won 31 of 64
Up 2–0, closes it100% 8 of 8
Up 1–0, closes it68% 17 of 25
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMatus2wins
AwayChlad8wins
3 of 10 to a deciderChlad leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMatus25%2 of 8
AwayChladn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Matus8Chlad2n = 10Matus took 8 of 10
S2Matus2Chlad8n = 10Chlad took 8 of 10
S3Matus4Chlad6n = 10Chlad took 6 of 10
S4Matus1Chlad8n = 9Chlad took 8 of 9
S5Matus1Chlad2n = 3Chlad took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away660%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMatusChladM − CBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match37.640.9−3.3per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMatusChladBasisWin rate · lifetime221 / 428 vs 134 / 27751.6%48.4%221 / 428 vs 134 / 277Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.138.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChladMatus 2.25/Chlad 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.5%
Chlad · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Chlad won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 17 · 07:10J. Matus28451181P. Chlad3811115113
LAug 2 · 21:13J. Matus351112481P. Chlad4481411113
LAug 2 · 19:40J. Matus321152141P. Chlad4681111163
LJul 4 · 16:40J. Matus27116731P. Chlad3521111113
WJul 4 · 16:10J. Matus341112113P. Chlad2561090
LJun 30 · 08:55J. Matus511191110102P. Chlad46811312123
LJun 30 · 07:45J. Matus3711113121P. Chlad4791311143
LJun 15 · 21:15J. Matus37911891P. Chlad4211911113
LJun 15 · 19:45J. Matus4811891192P. Chlad48711118113
WJun 7 · 08:45J. Matus47116118113P. Chlad3871131162
J. Matus10
LSep 17 · 08:10J. Sindler1.7311125113J. Matus2.006101151WSep 17 · 05:40P. Jokiel1.5771350J. Matus2.251115113WSep 15 · 08:43J. Matus1.3311611113L. Snr3.25911821WSep 15 · 08:10L. Snr2.25611971J. Matus1.5711911113LSep 15 · 07:10J. Matus1.833411101A. Strelec1.8311119123LSep 15 · 05:40I. Jemelka1.531181413113J. Matus2.38811121592LSep 14 · 09:33J. Matus1.91111071172A. Strelec1.80212115113WSep 14 · 08:10J. Matus1.838201111113P. Sturma1.83111871392LSep 14 · 06:40J. Sindler1.731011711123J. Matus2.00123117102WSep 14 · 06:10A. Strelec1.80118125112J. Matus1.915111011133
P. Chlad10
WSep 17 · 07:40P. Jokiel2.2581111662P. Chlad1.57118811113LSep 17 · 06:10P. Chlad2.006111061J. Sindler1.7311612113LSep 15 · 16:40P. Chlad1.57851111102R. Benesz2.25111166123WSep 15 · 16:10P. Chlad1.6791111113R. Benesz2.10116891LSep 15 · 14:40M. Lorenc1.8091111113P. Chlad1.91117391LSep 15 · 14:10T. Ogrocki2.20111111113P. Chlad1.61813681LSep 4 · 20:45P. Chlad1.8056120V. Molin1.911111143LSep 4 · 20:10K. Przeczek1.80116611113P. Chlad1.9161111762WSep 4 · 19:10P. Chlad1.911411144113V. Molin1.80165121192LSep 4 · 17:40P. Jokiel2.2511113113P. Chlad1.57981171
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