TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13143515
Played Sep 17Finished
Patrik Jokiel
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 8Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 8
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
811118118611611
Petr Chlad
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:16 and never touched — 60.1% is still 60.1%
Graded at full timePetr Chlad to win
60.1%
60.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPatrik Jokiel above · Petr Chlad below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 91 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Petr Chlad at 60.1%
91 points played in total.
H2H Patrik Jokiel 5–14 Petr Chlad Patrik Jokiel has won 5 of their 19 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:16What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Chlad
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-14 in 19
Chlad
Correct
gap of 9 in 19, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jokiel 1279 vs Chlad 1434
Chlad
Correct
both rated, 154 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jokiel 0% vs Chlad 40%
Chlad
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jokiel 20% vs Chlad 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jokiel -5 · Chlad +1
Jokiel
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Chlad) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chlad form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJokiel 2.25 / Chlad 1.57
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Chlad)+2.4pp
TT Cup · #13143515
Jokiel2.25
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 8
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog48% won 73 of 153
Down 0–1, comes back38% 26 of 69
Down 0–2, comes back9% 2 of 23
Chlad1.57
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite48% won 31 of 64
Up 2–0, closes it100% 8 of 8
Up 1–0, closes it68% 17 of 25
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJokiel3wins
AwayChlad7wins
5 of 10 to a deciderChlad leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJokiel40%2 of 5
AwayChlad80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jokiel5Chlad5n = 10split evenly
S2Jokiel7Chlad3n = 10Jokiel took 7 of 10
S3Jokiel3Chlad7n = 10Chlad took 7 of 10
S4Jokiel5Chlad4n = 9Jokiel took 5 of 9
S5Jokiel0Chlad5n = 5Chlad took 5 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away550%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricJokielChladJ − CBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.043.1−4.1per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJokielChladBasisWin rate · lifetime203 / 440 vs 134 / 27746.1%48.4%203 / 440 vs 134 / 277Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.438.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChladJokiel 2.25/Chlad 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.3%
Chlad · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Chlad won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 17 · 07:40P. Jokiel4281111662P. Chlad49118811113
WSep 4 · 17:40P. Jokiel3611113113P. Chlad35981171
LJul 19 · 12:48P. Jokiel4311912652P. Chlad496111011113
LJul 19 · 10:15P. Jokiel421513771P. Chlad50171111113
LJul 11 · 20:10P. Jokiel3811911162P. Chlad46611117113
LJun 28 · 20:40P. Jokiel177460P. Chlad331111113
LJun 28 · 18:40P. Jokiel4081161142P. Chlad45117115113
WJun 27 · 08:10P. Jokiel46111112123P. Chlad409714101
WJun 26 · 09:15P. Jokiel4291111113P. Chlad30117391
LJun 26 · 06:45P. Jokiel4412136672P. Chlad5410111111113
P. Jokiel10
LSep 17 · 08:45J. Matus1.8011811113P. Jokiel1.91411761LSep 17 · 06:40P. Jokiel1.838470J. Sindler1.831111113LSep 17 · 05:40P. Jokiel1.5771350J. Matus2.251115113LSep 16 · 20:34J. Vanous1.801111113P. Jokiel1.917370LSep 16 · 20:10P. Jokiel1.8010370J. Vanous1.911211113LSep 16 · 18:40K. Zeman1.91111111113P. Jokiel1.80671371LSep 16 · 18:10O. Kus1.8011711113P. Jokiel1.91811961LSep 14 · 21:18O. Skvor1.5791312113P. Jokiel2.2511111061LSep 14 · 20:15O. Skvor1.50119811113P. Jokiel2.5091111642WSep 14 · 19:15P. Jokiel2.00911118113O. Kus1.7311971192
P. Chlad10
WSep 17 · 07:10J. Matus2.25451181P. Chlad1.5711115113LSep 17 · 06:10P. Chlad2.006111061J. Sindler1.7311612113LSep 15 · 16:40P. Chlad1.57851111102R. Benesz2.25111166123WSep 15 · 16:10P. Chlad1.6791111113R. Benesz2.10116891LSep 15 · 14:40M. Lorenc1.8091111113P. Chlad1.91117391LSep 15 · 14:10T. Ogrocki2.20111111113P. Chlad1.61813681LSep 4 · 20:45P. Chlad1.8056120V. Molin1.911111143LSep 4 · 20:10K. Przeczek1.80116611113P. Chlad1.9161111762WSep 4 · 19:10P. Chlad1.911411144113V. Molin1.80165121192LSep 4 · 17:40P. Jokiel2.2511113113P. Chlad1.57981171
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