TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13143150
Played Sep 17Finished
Patrik Jokiel
Home
1.57
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 6
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
7111315511––––
Jiri Matus
Away
2.25
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:01 and never touched — 66.7% is still 66.7%
Graded at full timeJiri Matus to win
66.7%
66.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPatrik Jokiel above · Jiri Matus below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 13-15
Set 3 · 5-11
Point 62 set 3, 5-11 — our read held Jiri Matus at 66.7%
62 points played in total.
H2H Patrik Jokiel 2–0 Jiri Matus Jiri Matus has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:01What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Jokiel
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-0 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Jokiel 1307 vs Matus 1342
Matus
Correct
both rated, 35 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jokiel 0% vs Matus 40%
Matus
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jokiel 30% vs Matus 50%
Matus
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Jokiel -5 · Matus +2
Jokiel
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Jokiel) · live re-read · sealed at 33% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jokiel form (0%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJokiel 1.57 / Matus 2.25
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Jokiel)+0.0pp
TT Cup · #13143150
Jokiel1.57
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 6
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite50% won 34 of 68
Up 2–0, closes it100% 15 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it71% 20 of 28
Matus2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog47% won 23 of 49
Down 0–1, comes back30% 7 of 23
Down 0–2, comes back18% 2 of 11
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeJokiel2wins
AwayMatus0wins
1 of 2 to a deciderJokiel leads 2–0, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricJokielMatusJ − MBasisWins20+2in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match49.041.5+7.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJokielMatusBasisWin rate · lifetime203 / 437 vs 220 / 42646.5%51.6%203 / 437 vs 220 / 426Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.439.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JokielJokiel 1.57/Matus 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.9%
Jokiel · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Matus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WJun 7 · 08:10P. Jokiel4211911113J. Matus35911871
WMar 5 · 20:10P. Jokiel5612111111113J. Matus4814513792
P. Jokiel10
LSep 17 · 06:40P. Jokiel1.838470J. Sindler1.831111113LSep 16 · 20:34J. Vanous1.801111113P. Jokiel1.917370LSep 16 · 20:10P. Jokiel1.8010370J. Vanous1.911211113LSep 16 · 18:40K. Zeman1.91111111113P. Jokiel1.80671371LSep 16 · 18:10O. Kus1.8011711113P. Jokiel1.91811961LSep 14 · 21:18O. Skvor1.5791312113P. Jokiel2.2511111061LSep 14 · 20:15O. Skvor1.50119811113P. Jokiel2.5091111642WSep 14 · 19:15P. Jokiel2.00911118113O. Kus1.7311971192WSep 14 · 17:45K. Zeman1.9157111192P. Jokiel1.80111164113WSep 13 · 12:40A. Drozd1.6291111692P. Jokiel2.15118611113
J. Matus10
WSep 15 · 08:43J. Matus1.3311611113L. Snr3.25911821WSep 15 · 08:10L. Snr2.25611971J. Matus1.5711911113LSep 15 · 07:10J. Matus1.833411101A. Strelec1.8311119123LSep 15 · 05:40I. Jemelka1.531181413113J. Matus2.38811121592LSep 14 · 09:33J. Matus1.91111071172A. Strelec1.80212115113WSep 14 · 08:10J. Matus1.838201111113P. Sturma1.83111871392LSep 14 · 06:40J. Sindler1.731011711123J. Matus2.00123117102WSep 14 · 06:10A. Strelec1.80118125112J. Matus1.915111011133WSep 13 · 20:55J. Matus1.731112113M. Dolezal2.0081030LSep 13 · 20:15J. Oleksik2.10851211113J. Matus1.67111110762
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