TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13132145
Played Sep 15Finished
Lukas Krupnik Snr
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
611119911711––
Jiri Matus
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:16 and never touched — 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeJiri Matus to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLukas Krupnik Snr above · Jiri Matus below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 75 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Jiri Matus at 58.9%
75 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Krupnik Snr 0–2 Jiri Matus Lukas Krupnik Snr has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:16What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Matus
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-2 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Snr 1332 vs Matus 1307
Snr
Wrong
both rated, 25 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Snr 20% vs Matus 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Snr 40% vs Matus 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Snr -2 · Matus -3
Matus
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Matus)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Matus form (20%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSnr 2.25 / Matus 1.57
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Matus)+0.0pp
TT Cup · #13132145
Snr2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog43% won 19 of 44
Down 0–1, comes back19% 5 of 27
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 16
Matus1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 89 of 152
Up 2–0, closes it93% 39 of 42
Up 1–0, closes it75% 61 of 81
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeSnr0wins
AwayMatus2wins
Matus leads 2–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away2
These 2 meetings
MetricSnrMatusS − MBasisWins02−2in 2 meetingsFirst set02−2of 2Avg pointsper match18.033.0−15.0per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSnrMatusBasisWin rate · lifetime58 / 126 vs 218 / 42446%51.4%58 / 126 vs 218 / 424Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.239.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MatusSnr 2.25/Matus 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.9%
Matus · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Matus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LApr 27 · 06:45L. Snr174580J. Matus331111113
LMar 31 · 05:40L. Snr197390J. Matus331111113
L. Snr10
LSep 15 · 08:43J. Matus1.3311611113L. Snr3.25911821LSep 15 · 06:40I. Jemelka1.611111113L. Snr2.208680LSep 15 · 06:10A. Strelec2.001111123L. Snr1.7354100WSep 8 · 12:43P. Sturma1.83811991L. Snr1.8311411113LSep 8 · 11:45L. Snr1.73118761P. Sturma2.0031111113LSep 8 · 10:45L. Snr1.91651171R. Jancak1.8011119113LSep 8 · 09:45L. Snr1.6751191172R. Sedivy2.10119118113WSep 7 · 09:13L. Snr1.73911611113A. Strelec2.0011911872WSep 7 · 07:45A. Strelec1.83711861L. Snr1.8311511113WSep 7 · 07:15F. Mandrysz2.10128911112L. Snr1.671011117133
J. Matus10
WSep 15 · 08:43J. Matus1.3311611113L. Snr3.25911821LSep 15 · 07:10J. Matus1.833411101A. Strelec1.8311119123LSep 15 · 05:40I. Jemelka1.531181413113J. Matus2.38811121592LSep 14 · 09:33J. Matus1.91111071172A. Strelec1.80212115113WSep 14 · 08:10J. Matus1.838201111113P. Sturma1.83111871392LSep 14 · 06:40J. Sindler1.731011711123J. Matus2.00123117102WSep 14 · 06:10A. Strelec1.80118125112J. Matus1.915111011133WSep 13 · 20:55J. Matus1.731112113M. Dolezal2.0081030LSep 13 · 20:15J. Oleksik2.10851211113J. Matus1.67111110762WSep 13 · 19:15J. Matus1.73116115113L. Jr2.0081151192
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